揭示比特币指标的历史模式：把握市场走势的简单策略

CryptoQuant 分析师 Axel Adler Jr. 公布了一项简单的策略，用于确定买卖比特币的最佳时机。该策略基于两个链上指标观察到的历史模式：未实现净损失（NUL）和未实现净利润（NUP）。从历史上看，NUL 在突破 0.5 时表明买入机会，而 NUP 在超过 0.7 时表明卖出机会。虽然这些指标没有提供确切的顶部或底部，但它们在历史上曾表明有利可图的买入和卖出点。

Unveiling a Historical Pattern in Bitcoin Indicators: A Simple Strategy for Timing Market Moves

揭示比特币指标的历史模式：把握市场走势的简单策略

Introduction

介绍

Amidst the ever-evolving world of cryptocurrency trading, analysts are continuously seeking strategies to navigate the volatile market fluctuations of Bitcoin (BTC). Recently, CryptoQuant author Axel Adler Jr. presented a simplistic methodology based on historical patterns exhibited by two on-chain indicators—Net Unrealized Loss (NUL) and Net Unrealized Profit (NUP)—to guide traders in determining optimal buy and sell opportunities.

在不断发展的加密货币交易世界中，分析师不断寻求应对比特币（BTC）波动市场波动的策略。最近，CryptoQuant 的作者 Axel Adler Jr. 提出了一种基于两个链上指标（净未实现损失（NUL）和净未实现利润（NUP））所显示的历史模式的简单化方法，以指导交易者确定最佳买卖机会。

Net Unrealized Loss and Net Unrealized Profit: A Deeper Dive

未实现净亏损和未实现净利润：更深入的探讨

These specialized indicators play a crucial role in assessing the overall financial position of Bitcoin investors. NUL represents the aggregate unrealized losses incurred by holders whose purchase prices exceed the current market value, while NUP measures the cumulative unrealized profits enjoyed by those who acquired their coins at a lower cost basis.

这些专门指标在评估比特币投资者的整体财务状况方面发挥着至关重要的作用。 NUL 代表购买价格超过当前市场价值的持有者所遭受的未实现损失总额，而 NUP 衡量的是那些以较低成本购买代币的人所享有的累计未实现利润。

To gauge these metrics, analysts meticulously examine the transaction history of each Bitcoin in circulation, identifying its last transacted price. This assumption enables them to establish a current cost basis for each coin. Notably, the difference between the last transacted price and the current spot price determines whether the coin is currently yielding a profit (NUP) or a loss (NUL).

为了衡量这些指标，分析师会仔细检查流通中的每个比特币的交易历史，确定其最后的交易价格。这一假设使他们能够为每种代币建立当前的成本基础。值得注意的是，最后交易价格和当前现货价格之间的差异决定了代币当前是盈利（NUP）还是亏损（NUL）。

Uncovering Historical Patterns

揭示历史模式

Adler Jr.'s analysis reveals a recurring pattern in the NUL metric. Historically, it has tended to rise towards the 0.5 level during Bitcoin's bear market lows. This observation suggests that when NUL breaches the 0.5 threshold, it may present a favorable entry point for purchasing Bitcoin.

Adler Jr. 的分析揭示了 NUL 指标中的重复出现模式。从历史上看，在比特币熊市低点期间，它往往会升至 0.5 的水平。这一观察结果表明，当 NUL 突破 0.5 阈值时，可能会成为购买比特币的有利切入点。

On the contrary, NUP has exhibited an inverse pattern, notably exceeding 0.7 during major market peaks. According to Adler Jr., this could indicate an opportune moment to consider selling Bitcoin, as the market may be approaching an overbought zone.

相反，NUP 表现出相反的模式，在主要市场高峰期间明显超过 0.7。小阿德勒表示，这可能表明是考虑出售比特币的好时机，因为市场可能正在接近超买区域。

Strategy Validation

策略验证

While neither indicator has proven to pinpoint exact market highs or lows, their historical patterns have generally provided valuable insights for timing market moves. Historically, buying Bitcoin when NUL signals an undervalued market and selling when NUP indicates an overbought market has often yielded profitable outcomes.

虽然这两个指标都没有被证明能够准确指出市场的高点或低点，但它们的历史模式通常为把握市场走势提供了宝贵的见解。从历史上看，当 NUL 表明市场被低估时买入比特币，当 NUP 表明市场超买时卖出比特币，通常会产生有利可图的结果。

Application and Limitations

应用和限制

The simplicity of this strategy makes it accessible to traders of varying experience levels. However, it is crucial to acknowledge that historical patterns may not always hold true in the ever-changing cryptocurrency landscape. Therefore, investors should exercise caution and conduct their diligent research before relying solely on this methodology.

该策略的简单性使其适合不同经验水平的交易者。然而，重要的是要认识到，在不断变化的加密货币环境中，历史模式可能并不总是成立。因此，投资者在仅仅依赖这种方法之前应谨慎行事并进行认真研究。

Current Market Analysis

当前市场分析

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $69,400, experiencing a moderate decline over the past 24 hours. NUL currently hovers around the zero mark, indicating that a majority of Bitcoin holders are in profit territory. NUP, on the other hand, is trending upwards but has not yet breached the 0.7 level, suggesting that the market may not have reached an overheated state.

截至撰写本文时，比特币交易价格约为 69,400 美元，在过去 24 小时内小幅下跌。 NUL 目前徘徊在零大关附近，表明大多数比特币持有者处于盈利区间。另一方面，NUP呈上升趋势，但尚未突破0.7水平，表明市场可能尚未达到过热状态。

Conclusion

结论

Adler Jr.'s analysis provides a compelling framework for traders seeking to identify optimal entry and exit points in the Bitcoin market. By leveraging historical patterns in NUL and NUP, investors can gain a deeper understanding of market sentiment and potentially make more informed trading decisions. However, it is of paramount importance to remember that trading involves inherent risks, and thorough due diligence is essential before committing any funds.

Adler Jr. 的分析为寻求确定比特币市场最佳进入和退出点的交易者提供了一个令人信服的框架。通过利用 NUL 和 NUP 的历史模式，投资者可以更深入地了解市场情绪，并有可能做出更明智的交易决策。然而，最重要的是要记住，交易涉及固有风险，在投入任何资金之前进行彻底的尽职调查至关重要。