揭示比特幣指標的歷史模式：掌握市場趨勢的簡單策略

CryptoQuant 分析師 Axel Adler Jr. 公佈了一項簡單的策略，用於確定買賣比特幣的最佳時機。該策略基於兩個鏈上指標觀察到的歷史模式：未實現淨損失（NUL）和未實現淨利潤（NUP）。從歷史上看，NUL 在突破 0.5 時表明買入機會，而 NUP 在超過 0.7 時表明賣出機會。雖然這些指標沒有提供確切的頂部或底部，但它們在歷史上曾表明有利可圖的買入和賣出點。

Unveiling a Historical Pattern in Bitcoin Indicators: A Simple Strategy for Timing Market Moves

揭示比特幣指標的歷史模式：掌握市場趨勢的簡單策略

Introduction

介紹

Amidst the ever-evolving world of cryptocurrency trading, analysts are continuously seeking strategies to navigate the volatile market fluctuations of Bitcoin (BTC). Recently, CryptoQuant author Axel Adler Jr. presented a simplistic methodology based on historical patterns exhibited by two on-chain indicators—Net Unrealized Loss (NUL) and Net Unrealized Profit (NUP)—to guide traders in determining optimal buy and sell opportunities.

在不斷發展的加密貨幣交易世界中，分析師不斷尋求應對比特幣（BTC）波動市場波動的策略。最近，CryptoQuant 的作者Axel Adler Jr. 提出了一種基於兩個鏈上指標（淨未實現損失（NUL）和淨未實現利潤（NUP））所顯示的歷史模式的簡化方法，以指導交易者確定最佳買賣機會。

Net Unrealized Loss and Net Unrealized Profit: A Deeper Dive

未實現淨虧損與未實現淨利：更深入的探討

These specialized indicators play a crucial role in assessing the overall financial position of Bitcoin investors. NUL represents the aggregate unrealized losses incurred by holders whose purchase prices exceed the current market value, while NUP measures the cumulative unrealized profits enjoyed by those who acquired their coins at a lower cost basis.

這些專門指標在評估比特幣投資者的整體財務狀況方面發揮著至關重要的作用。 NUL 代表購買價格超過當前市場價值的持有者所遭受的未實現損失總額，而 NUP 衡量的是那些以較低成本購買代幣的人所享有的累計未實現利潤。

To gauge these metrics, analysts meticulously examine the transaction history of each Bitcoin in circulation, identifying its last transacted price. This assumption enables them to establish a current cost basis for each coin. Notably, the difference between the last transacted price and the current spot price determines whether the coin is currently yielding a profit (NUP) or a loss (NUL).

為了衡量這些指標，分析師會仔細檢查流通中的每個比特幣的交易歷史，確定其最後的交易價格。這一假設使他們能夠為每種代幣建立當前的成本基礎。值得注意的是，最後交易價格和當前現貨價格之間的差異決定了代幣當前是盈利（NUP）還是虧損（NUL）。

Uncovering Historical Patterns

揭示歷史模式

Adler Jr.'s analysis reveals a recurring pattern in the NUL metric. Historically, it has tended to rise towards the 0.5 level during Bitcoin's bear market lows. This observation suggests that when NUL breaches the 0.5 threshold, it may present a favorable entry point for purchasing Bitcoin.

Adler Jr. 的分析揭示了 NUL 指標中的重複出現模式。從歷史上看，在比特幣熊市低點期間，它往往會升至 0.5 的水平。這項觀察結果表明，當 NUL 突破 0.5 閾值時，可能會成為購買比特幣的有利切入點。

On the contrary, NUP has exhibited an inverse pattern, notably exceeding 0.7 during major market peaks. According to Adler Jr., this could indicate an opportune moment to consider selling Bitcoin, as the market may be approaching an overbought zone.

相反，NUP 表現出相反的模式，在主要市場高峰期間明顯超過 0.7。小阿德勒表示，這可能表明是考慮出售比特幣的好時機，因為市場可能正在接近超買區域。

Strategy Validation

策略驗證

While neither indicator has proven to pinpoint exact market highs or lows, their historical patterns have generally provided valuable insights for timing market moves. Historically, buying Bitcoin when NUL signals an undervalued market and selling when NUP indicates an overbought market has often yielded profitable outcomes.

雖然這兩個指標都沒有被證明能夠準確指出市場的高點或低點，但它們的歷史模式通常為掌握市場走勢提供了寶貴的見解。從歷史上看，當 NUL 表明市場被低估時買入比特幣，當 NUP 表明市場超買時賣出比特幣，通常會產生有利可圖的結果。

Application and Limitations

應用和限制

The simplicity of this strategy makes it accessible to traders of varying experience levels. However, it is crucial to acknowledge that historical patterns may not always hold true in the ever-changing cryptocurrency landscape. Therefore, investors should exercise caution and conduct their diligent research before relying solely on this methodology.

此策略的簡單性使其適合不同經驗水平的交易者。然而，重要的是要認識到，在不斷變化的加密貨幣環境中，歷史模式可能並不總是成立。因此，投資者在僅依賴這種方法之前應謹慎行事並進行認真研究。

Current Market Analysis

目前市場分析

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $69,400, experiencing a moderate decline over the past 24 hours. NUL currently hovers around the zero mark, indicating that a majority of Bitcoin holders are in profit territory. NUP, on the other hand, is trending upwards but has not yet breached the 0.7 level, suggesting that the market may not have reached an overheated state.

截至撰寫本文時，比特幣交易價格約為 69,400 美元，在過去 24 小時內小幅下跌。 NUL 目前徘徊在零大關附近，顯示大多數比特幣持有者處於盈利區間。另一方面，NUP呈上升趨勢，但尚未突破0.7水平，顯示市場可能尚未達到過熱狀態。

Conclusion

結論

Adler Jr.'s analysis provides a compelling framework for traders seeking to identify optimal entry and exit points in the Bitcoin market. By leveraging historical patterns in NUL and NUP, investors can gain a deeper understanding of market sentiment and potentially make more informed trading decisions. However, it is of paramount importance to remember that trading involves inherent risks, and thorough due diligence is essential before committing any funds.

Adler Jr. 的分析為尋求確定比特幣市場最佳進入和退出點的交易者提供了一個令人信服的框架。透過利用 NUL 和 NUP 的歷史模式，投資者可以更深入地了解市場情緒，並有可能做出更明智的交易決策。然而，最重要的是要記住，交易涉及固有風險，在投入任何資金之前進行徹底的盡職調查至關重要。