FPPS支出计划的不可持续性

仔细研究FPPS支出计划的建立方式表明，它就像许多政府的现代养老金系统一样，设计不可持续。

Bitcoin mining is a difficult business. When deploying economic resources to mine traditional commodities like gold, copper, or oil, prospecting for those resources in the field is always done beforehand to ensure that any capital invested in a mining project will not be in vain. However, due to the nature of Bitcoin’s security protocol, miners are unable to prospect for anything since finding a block is a purely statistical and random event.

比特币采矿是一项艰巨的业务。当将经济资源部署到挖掘传统商品（例如黄金，铜或石油）时，始终会事先完成对现场资源的勘探，以确保投资于采矿项目的任何资本不会徒劳。但是，由于比特币安全协议的性质，矿工无法探索任何东西，因为找到块是纯粹的统计和随机事件。

Since there are only 144 blocks to be found per day, there is no way to ensure that a miner's work will be rewarded in a timely fashion without significant variability unless the miner has a considerable amount of hash rate. A miner needs roughly 1.2% of the total hashrate (approximately 10 Exahashes per second at the time of writing) to guarantee consistent payouts and significantly diminish its revenue variance. The CAPEX required to achieve such an amount of hashrate is in order of hundreds of millions of dollars. Unless a miner is a gigantic enterprise that has an enormous flock of ASICS, he will have a problem in his hands.

由于每天只有144个街区，因此无法确保矿工的工作及时地奖励，除非矿工具有相当大的哈希率，否则矿工的工作将及时奖励。矿工大约需要大约1.2％的哈希（在书写时大约10个exahashes），以确保持续的支出并大大减少其收入差异。实现此类桥梁所需的资本支出是按数亿美元的订单顺序的。除非矿工是一家巨大的企业，它拥有大量的ASIC群，否则他将遇到问题。

Pool mining was created to address and solve this issue. Let’s take a single miner, with a small but considerable mining operation. Out of the 52560 yearly blocks, he’s expected to find one, since he has 1/52560th of all the hashrate of the network. In other words, he’s expected to find one block every 12 months. But his electricity bill comes due every 4 weeks, and if he was to wait for a whole year paying bills before getting some revenue through the door, he’d go bankrupt. Given this discrepancy between its ongoing costs and its revenues, an idea comes to his mind. He sets out to find 499 other people with a similar sized operation, and they strike a deal. Instead of everyone mining on their own, the miner proposes to the others that they all mine collectively as if they are part of the same entity, splitting the mining rewards according to each miner’s work every time someone finds a block. If every miner has 1/52560th of all the hashrate of the network, the 500 miners collectively are expected to find a block approximately two times per week. With a pool mining approach, every miner guarantees that all the effort and hard work they put in will be rewarded much more frequently. This way everyone gets to pay their bills every month, and by the end of the year, they have all effectively managed to avoid bankruptcy. Nevertheless, there are still sources of variance within those same payouts.

创建了池开采以解决和解决此问题。让我们带一个矿工，进行一个小但相当大的采矿业务。在每年52560个街区中，他有望找到一个，因为他在网络的所有哈希拉特中都有1/52560。换句话说，他预计每12个月会发现一个街区。但是他的电费每4周到期一次，如果他要等一年一年才能支付账单，然后才能通过门获得收入，他会破产。鉴于其持续成本与收入之间的差异，他想到了一个想法。他着手找到其他499名具有类似大小运营的人，他们达成了一项交易。矿工并非每个人都在自己开采，而是向其他人求婚，他们全部是我的，好像他们是同一实体的一部分一样，每当有人找到一个街区时，都会根据每个矿工的工作来分配采矿奖励。如果每个矿工在网络的所有哈希底层中占1/52560，则预计500个矿工将每周发现大约两次。通过泳池开采方法，每个矿工都可以保证，他们所投入的所有努力和努力将得到更频繁的奖励。这样，每个人都可以每月支付账单，到年底，他们都有效地避免了破产。但是，在相同的支出中仍然存在差异来源。

Pool mining ensures that miners get paid much more frequently compared to solo mining. However, it doesn't guarantee predictable payouts based on the hashing power that each miner has. This problem is commonly known as the pool’s luck risk. Let´s go back to the previous example. 500 miners with 1/52560th of the total hashrate of the network each are expected to find 500 blocks in a year. Nevertheless, they may find 480. Or 497. Or 520. There is no assurance that the pool will mine exactly 500 blocks in a year. A Pool’s luck is calculated by dividing the number of blocks found by the number of blocks that was expected to be found based on the total hashrate of the pool. If a pool mines 480 blocks when they were expected to mine 500, the pool’s luck was 95%. Pool luck can cause significant fluctuations in earnings over short periods. However, luck tends to even out over time, and payouts will eventually align with the expected distribution based on the pool's hash rate.

泳池开采可确保与独奏采矿相比，矿工获得的频率要高得多。但是，它不能保证基于每个矿工拥有的哈希功率的可预测支出。这个问题通常称为池的运气风险。让我们回到上一个示例。 500名网络总哈希岩占1/52560的矿工预计每年将找到500个街区。但是，他们可能会发现480。或497。或520。没有保证，游泳池一年将恰好挖出500个街区。池的运气是通过将基于池的总哈希材料发现的块数除以预期发现的块数量来计算的。如果一个泳池期望开采500台480个街区，则游泳池的运气为95％。池运气可能会在短时间内的收入中引起明显的波动。但是，随着时间的流逝，运气往往会变得均匀，而支出最终将根据池的哈希率与预期分配保持一致。

Two additional factors contribute to the overall variance in miners' payment rewards, with the first factor being more significant than the second. The first is transaction fees. These tend to vary considerably as witnessed in the last few years. Transactions fees from the blocks that were mined right after the last halving represented more than 50% of the total block reward for the first time in Bitcoin’s history. As of the writing date of this article, (block height 883208), there were several non-full blocks mined in the past week, since the mempool cleared for several occasions during these past days. Quite a jump in such a short amount of time. The second factor is related to the variance associated with the time between blocks found by the network. When a block is found right after another, there is less time for transactions to build up in the mempool, which leads to lower transaction fees in that block. Conversely, if a more extended period elapses between blocks, more transactions will be broadcast, driving up transaction fees in the process.

另外两个因素导致矿工支付奖励的总体差异，第一个因素比第二个因素更重要。第一个是交易费用。这些往往会像过去几年所见一样差异。在最后一半减半后挖掘的块的交易费用占比特币历史上首次奖励总奖励的50％以上。截至本文的撰写日期（块高度883208），过去一周中有几个不充实的块，因为在过去的几天中，孟买的几次清除了几次。在如此短的时间内跳跃。第二个因素与与网络发现的块之间的时间相关的方差有关。当在另一个地方发现一个块时，交易的时间较小，在Mempool中堆积的时间较小，这会导致该块的交易费用较低。相反，如果在块之间进行了更长的时间，则将播放更多的交易，从而在此过程中提高交易费用。

During the 2024 halving, for the first time in bitcoin’

在2024年减半期间，这是比特币第一次