FPPS支出計劃的不可持續性

仔細研究FPPS支出計劃的建立方式表明，它就像許多政府的現代養老金系統一樣，設計不可持續。

Bitcoin mining is a difficult business. When deploying economic resources to mine traditional commodities like gold, copper, or oil, prospecting for those resources in the field is always done beforehand to ensure that any capital invested in a mining project will not be in vain. However, due to the nature of Bitcoin’s security protocol, miners are unable to prospect for anything since finding a block is a purely statistical and random event.

比特幣採礦是一項艱鉅的業務。當將經濟資源部署到挖掘傳統商品（例如黃金，銅或石油）時，始終會事先完成對現場資源的勘探，以確保投資於採礦項目的任何資本不會徒勞。但是，由於比特幣安全協議的性質，礦工無法探索任何東西，因為找到塊是純粹的統計和隨機事件。

Since there are only 144 blocks to be found per day, there is no way to ensure that a miner's work will be rewarded in a timely fashion without significant variability unless the miner has a considerable amount of hash rate. A miner needs roughly 1.2% of the total hashrate (approximately 10 Exahashes per second at the time of writing) to guarantee consistent payouts and significantly diminish its revenue variance. The CAPEX required to achieve such an amount of hashrate is in order of hundreds of millions of dollars. Unless a miner is a gigantic enterprise that has an enormous flock of ASICS, he will have a problem in his hands.

由於每天只有144個街區，因此無法確保礦工的工作及時地獎勵，除非礦工具有相當大的哈希率，否則礦工的工作將及時獎勵。礦工大約需要大約1.2％的哈希（在書寫時大約10個exahashes），以確保持續的支出並大大減少其收入差異。實現此類橋樑所需的資本支出是按數億美元的訂單順序的。除非礦工是一家巨大的企業，它擁有大量的ASIC群，否則他將遇到問題。

Pool mining was created to address and solve this issue. Let’s take a single miner, with a small but considerable mining operation. Out of the 52560 yearly blocks, he’s expected to find one, since he has 1/52560th of all the hashrate of the network. In other words, he’s expected to find one block every 12 months. But his electricity bill comes due every 4 weeks, and if he was to wait for a whole year paying bills before getting some revenue through the door, he’d go bankrupt. Given this discrepancy between its ongoing costs and its revenues, an idea comes to his mind. He sets out to find 499 other people with a similar sized operation, and they strike a deal. Instead of everyone mining on their own, the miner proposes to the others that they all mine collectively as if they are part of the same entity, splitting the mining rewards according to each miner’s work every time someone finds a block. If every miner has 1/52560th of all the hashrate of the network, the 500 miners collectively are expected to find a block approximately two times per week. With a pool mining approach, every miner guarantees that all the effort and hard work they put in will be rewarded much more frequently. This way everyone gets to pay their bills every month, and by the end of the year, they have all effectively managed to avoid bankruptcy. Nevertheless, there are still sources of variance within those same payouts.

創建了池開採以解決和解決此問題。讓我們帶一個礦工，進行一個小但相當大的採礦業務。在每年52560個街區中，他有望找到一個，因為他在網絡的所有哈希拉特中都有1/52560。換句話說，他預計每12個月會發現一個街區。但是他的電費每4周到期一次，如果他要等一年一年才能支付賬單，然後才能通過門獲得收入，他會破產。鑑於其持續成本與收入之間的差異，他想到了一個想法。他著手找到其他499名具有類似大小運營的人，他們達成了一項交易。礦工並非每個人都在自己開採，而是向其他人求婚，他們全部是我的，好像他們是同一實體的一部分一樣，每當有人找到一個街區時，都會根據每個礦工的工作來分配採礦獎勵。如果每個礦工在網絡的所有哈希底層中佔1/52560，則預計500個礦工將每週發現大約兩次。通過泳池開採方法，每個礦工都可以保證，他們所投入的所有努力和努力將得到更頻繁的獎勵。這樣，每個人都可以每月支付賬單，到年底，他們都有效地避免了破產。但是，在相同的支出中仍然存在差異來源。

Pool mining ensures that miners get paid much more frequently compared to solo mining. However, it doesn't guarantee predictable payouts based on the hashing power that each miner has. This problem is commonly known as the pool’s luck risk. Let´s go back to the previous example. 500 miners with 1/52560th of the total hashrate of the network each are expected to find 500 blocks in a year. Nevertheless, they may find 480. Or 497. Or 520. There is no assurance that the pool will mine exactly 500 blocks in a year. A Pool’s luck is calculated by dividing the number of blocks found by the number of blocks that was expected to be found based on the total hashrate of the pool. If a pool mines 480 blocks when they were expected to mine 500, the pool’s luck was 95%. Pool luck can cause significant fluctuations in earnings over short periods. However, luck tends to even out over time, and payouts will eventually align with the expected distribution based on the pool's hash rate.

泳池開採可確保與獨奏採礦相比，礦工獲得的頻率要高得多。但是，它不能保證基於每個礦工擁有的哈希功率的可預測支出。這個問題通常稱為池的運氣風險。讓我們回到上一個示例。 500名網絡總哈希岩佔1/52560的礦工預計每年將找到500個街區。但是，他們可能會發現480。或497。或520。沒有保證，游泳池一年將恰好挖出500個街區。池的運氣是通過將基於池的總哈希材料發現的塊數除以預期發現的塊數量來計算的。如果一個泳池期望開採500台480個街區，則游泳池的運氣為95％。池運氣可能會在短時間內的收入中引起明顯的波動。但是，隨著時間的流逝，運氣往往會變得均勻，而支出最終將根據池的哈希率與預期分配保持一致。

Two additional factors contribute to the overall variance in miners' payment rewards, with the first factor being more significant than the second. The first is transaction fees. These tend to vary considerably as witnessed in the last few years. Transactions fees from the blocks that were mined right after the last halving represented more than 50% of the total block reward for the first time in Bitcoin’s history. As of the writing date of this article, (block height 883208), there were several non-full blocks mined in the past week, since the mempool cleared for several occasions during these past days. Quite a jump in such a short amount of time. The second factor is related to the variance associated with the time between blocks found by the network. When a block is found right after another, there is less time for transactions to build up in the mempool, which leads to lower transaction fees in that block. Conversely, if a more extended period elapses between blocks, more transactions will be broadcast, driving up transaction fees in the process.

另外兩個因素導致礦工支付獎勵的總體差異，第一個因素比第二個因素更重要。第一個是交易費用。這些往往會像過去幾年所見一樣差異。在最後一半減半後挖掘的塊的交易費用佔比特幣歷史上首次獎勵總獎勵的50％以上。截至本文的撰寫日期（塊高度883208），過去一周中有幾個不充實的塊，因為在過去的幾天中，孟買的幾次清除了幾次。在如此短的時間內跳躍。第二個因素與與網絡發現的塊之間的時間相關的方差有關。當在另一個地方發現一個塊時，交易的時間較小，在Mempool中堆積的時間較小，這會導致該塊的交易費用較低。相反，如果在塊之間進行了更長的時間，則將播放更多的交易，從而在此過程中提高交易費用。

During the 2024 halving, for the first time in bitcoin’

在2024年減半期間，這是比特幣第一次