特朗普（象征）

昨天（3月23日），特朗普在社交媒体真相上发了推文：我爱特朗普（象征），非常酷。如下图所示。

Yesterday (March 23), Trump posted on the social media Truth Social: I love TRUMP (token), very cool. As shown in the picture below:

昨天（3月23日），特朗普在社交媒体真相社交上发布：我爱特朗普（象征），非常酷。如下图所示：

However, judging from the price performance of the TRUMP token on that day, it did not seem to generate much trading volume, and the highest increase on that day was only about 7%. This shows that the overall market sentiment is still not optimistic enough. Even if the president calls for orders, people no longer have that crazy purchasing power.

但是，从那天特朗普代币的价格绩效来看，它似乎并没有产生太多的交易量，而当天的增长最高约为7％。这表明总体市场情绪仍然不够乐观。即使总统要求命令，人们也不再拥有那种疯狂的购买力。

In fact, there have been quite a few positive factors in the market in recent days, such as: the U.S. Treasury Department lifted sanctions on Tornado Cash, the SEC stated that proof-of-work (POW) mining does not involve the issuance and sale of securities, the SEC terminated the lawsuit against Ripple (XRP), Trump spoke at the Blockworks Digital Asset Summit (in a pre-recorded statement) and reiterated that the United States will take measures to ensure that it becomes the “cryptocurrency capital of the world”, White House officials said that the United States may use its gold reserves to buy more Bitcoin, institutions such as MicroStrategy continue to buy more Bitcoin, Trump displayed the Bitcoin white paper hanging on the wall of the White House, and the IMF (International Monetary Fund) is adding Bitcoin to its own reserves… and so on.

In fact, there have been quite a few positive factors in the market in recent days, such as: the US Treasury Department lifted sanctions on Tornado Cash, the SEC stated that proof-of-work (POW) mining does not involve the issuance and sale of securities, the SEC terminated the lawsuit against Ripple (XRP), Trump spoke at the Blockworks Digital Asset Summit (in a pre-recorded statement) and reiterated that the United States will take白宫官员说，确保它成为“世界的加密货币资本”的措施。

But the overall market reaction is relatively flat. The current market gives people the feeling that the narrative is still very strong (encryption has risen to the national level), but liquidity is very weak.

但是总体市场反应相对平坦。当前的市场使人们的叙述仍然非常强烈（加密已经上升到国家一级），但是流动性非常薄弱。

So, has the market completely fallen into a bear market atmosphere?

那么，市场是否完全陷入了熊市氛围？

First of all, this question depends on your definition of a bear market. If you think that the current price of Bitcoin at $86,000 (the price at the time of writing this article) means a bear market, then it is a bear market for you; if you think that the current decline of your holdings by more than 60% means a bear market, then it is a bear market for you…

首先，这个问题取决于您对熊市的定义。如果您认为比特币的当前价格为86,000美元（本文撰写本文时的价格）意味着一个熊市，那么这是您的熊市。如果您认为目前的股份下降超过60％意味着熊市，那么这对您来说是一个熊市……

Recently, through the backend data and the interactive discussions in the group, I found that many people are still pessimistic and at a loss. Some messages or private messages continue to ask me questions about price predictions or trading operations, such as: How much do you think the market will fall next? Do you think Bitcoin can rise to 90,000 this month? Can I buy XX coin now? I am stuck with XX, should I switch to XX now? ... and so on.

最近，通过后端数据和小组中的互动讨论，我发现许多人仍然是悲观的，并且有些茫然。一些消息或私人消息继续向我询问有关价格预测或交易操作的问题，例如：您认为下一个市场会落下多少？您认为比特币本月可以上升到90,000吗？我现在可以买XX硬币吗？我被XX陷入困境，现在应该切换到XX吗？ ... 等等。

Those who can ask the above questions are basically new users or users who don’t usually read Hualihuawai’s articles. In fact, I have never had a standard answer to such questions. If you must ask, then the only answer is “I don’t know”. In addition, I am a person who speaks more directly, and asking me such questions does not give you any psychological comfort. But those who know me (the views of past articles) should know that I am a long-term optimist of Bitcoin. Asking me whether Bitcoin can be bought is equivalent to holding a ready-made answer without reading it, and trying to find the questioner to ask for the answer.

那些可以问上述问题的人基本上是新的新用户，通常不阅读Hualihuawai的文章。实际上，我从来没有对此类问题有标准的答案。如果您必须问，那么唯一的答案是“我不知道”。此外，我是一个更直接说话的人，问我这样的问题并不能给您任何心理舒适。但是那些认识我的人（过去文章的观点）应该知道我是比特币的长期乐观主义者。问我是否可以购买比特币等同于在不阅读的情况下拿着现成的答案，并试图找到提问者寻求答案。

As far as the current market is concerned, the one that is still a little bit hot (relatively discussed more in the group) is CZ’s hype of MemeCoin with BNB Chain, but the gameplay is still the old Meme+hype method, Chinese KOLs are busy interacting and shouting orders, and players are still playing PvP games through speed pass (see who enters earlier and who runs faster). This gameplay will not have much impact on the overall market at this stage. Perhaps, we need some more positive catalysts to re-promote or bring a new wave of staged market.

就当前市场而言，CZ与BNB连锁店的Memecoin大肆宣传，但游戏玩法仍然是旧的Meme+Hype方法，中国的KOL忙于互动和喊叫订单，并且玩家仍在通过Speed Pass玩PVP游戏（请参阅Who who ers anders Fasters Faster）。此游戏在此阶段不会对整个市场产生太大影响。也许，我们需要一些更积极的催化剂来重新宣传或带来新的分阶段市场。

Now many people's expectations for the market seem to be mainly focused on changes in the macro environment, such as Trump’s tariffs and other policy changes, the Fed's interest rate cuts, etc. From the overall situation, we seem to be at a new turning point or approaching a new turning point. Especially since this year, as gold continues to rise, Bitcoin and the S&P 500 index have experienced a relatively obvious pullback, as shown in the figure below.

现在，许多人对市场的期望似乎主要集中在宏观环境的变化上，例如特朗普的关税和其他政策变化，美联储的降低利率降低等。从整体情况下，我们似乎处于一个新的转折点或接近一个新的转折点。尤其是自今年以来，随着黄金的不断上升，比特币和标准普尔500指数经历了相对明显的回调，如下图所示。

Although compared with Bitcoin in previous cycles, Bitcoin in this cycle has a long-term super narrative under the approval of ETFs and the recognition of the US government (strategic reserves, etc.), it is subject to some macro issues and investors do not seem to fully favor such high-risk assets. Here we might as well make a simple assumption: as gold continues to reach new highs and reaches a staged peak, when gold re-enters a new consolidation or correction, high-risk assets such as Bitcoin may show some new trend changes or staged reversals.

尽管与以前的周期中的比特币相比，该周期中的比特币在ETF的批准下具有长期的超级叙事，并承认了美国政府（战略储备等），但它遵守某些宏观问题，投资者似乎并不完全偏爱这样的高风险资产。在这里，我们也可以做一个简单的假设：随着黄金继续达到新的高点并达到阶段峰值，当黄金重新进入新的合并或校正时，高风险资产（例如比特币）可能会显示出一些新的趋势变化或分阶段的逆转。

As for when this new trend change or phased reversal will occur, I don’t know. Here I can make another blind guess. If the market continues

至于何时发生这种新趋势变化或分阶段逆转，我不知道。在这里，我可以再盲目猜测。如果市场继续