特朗普（象徵）

昨天（3月23日），特朗普在社交媒體真相上發了推文：我愛特朗普（象徵），非常酷。如下圖所示。

Yesterday (March 23), Trump posted on the social media Truth Social: I love TRUMP (token), very cool. As shown in the picture below:

昨天（3月23日），特朗普在社交媒體真相社交上發布：我愛特朗普（象徵），非常酷。如下圖所示：

However, judging from the price performance of the TRUMP token on that day, it did not seem to generate much trading volume, and the highest increase on that day was only about 7%. This shows that the overall market sentiment is still not optimistic enough. Even if the president calls for orders, people no longer have that crazy purchasing power.

但是，從那天特朗普代幣的價格績效來看，它似乎並沒有產生太多的交易量，而當天的增長最高約為7％。這表明總體市場情緒仍然不夠樂觀。即使總統要求命令，人們也不再擁有那種瘋狂的購買力。

In fact, there have been quite a few positive factors in the market in recent days, such as: the U.S. Treasury Department lifted sanctions on Tornado Cash, the SEC stated that proof-of-work (POW) mining does not involve the issuance and sale of securities, the SEC terminated the lawsuit against Ripple (XRP), Trump spoke at the Blockworks Digital Asset Summit (in a pre-recorded statement) and reiterated that the United States will take measures to ensure that it becomes the “cryptocurrency capital of the world”, White House officials said that the United States may use its gold reserves to buy more Bitcoin, institutions such as MicroStrategy continue to buy more Bitcoin, Trump displayed the Bitcoin white paper hanging on the wall of the White House, and the IMF (International Monetary Fund) is adding Bitcoin to its own reserves… and so on.

In fact, there have been quite a few positive factors in the market in recent days, such as: the US Treasury Department lifted sanctions on Tornado Cash, the SEC stated that proof-of-work (POW) mining does not involve the issuance and sale of securities, the SEC terminated the lawsuit against Ripple (XRP), Trump spoke at the Blockworks Digital Asset Summit (in a pre-recorded statement) and reiterated that the United States will take白宮官員說，確保它成為“世界的加密貨幣資本”的措施。

But the overall market reaction is relatively flat. The current market gives people the feeling that the narrative is still very strong (encryption has risen to the national level), but liquidity is very weak.

但是總體市場反應相對平坦。當前的市場使人們的敘述仍然非常強烈（加密已經上升到國家一級），但是流動性非常薄弱。

So, has the market completely fallen into a bear market atmosphere?

那麼，市場是否完全陷入了熊市氛圍？

First of all, this question depends on your definition of a bear market. If you think that the current price of Bitcoin at $86,000 (the price at the time of writing this article) means a bear market, then it is a bear market for you; if you think that the current decline of your holdings by more than 60% means a bear market, then it is a bear market for you…

首先，這個問題取決於您對熊市的定義。如果您認為比特幣的當前價格為86,000美元（本文撰寫本文時的價格）意味著一個熊市，那麼這是您的熊市。如果您認為目前的股份下降超過60％意味著熊市，那麼這對您來說是一個熊市……

Recently, through the backend data and the interactive discussions in the group, I found that many people are still pessimistic and at a loss. Some messages or private messages continue to ask me questions about price predictions or trading operations, such as: How much do you think the market will fall next? Do you think Bitcoin can rise to 90,000 this month? Can I buy XX coin now? I am stuck with XX, should I switch to XX now? ... and so on.

最近，通過後端數據和小組中的互動討論，我發現許多人仍然是悲觀的，並且有些茫然。一些消息或私人消息繼續向我詢問有關價格預測或交易操作的問題，例如：您認為下一個市場會落下多少？您認為比特幣本月可以上升到90,000嗎？我現在可以買XX硬幣嗎？我被XX陷入困境，現在應該切換到XX嗎？ ... 等等。

Those who can ask the above questions are basically new users or users who don’t usually read Hualihuawai’s articles. In fact, I have never had a standard answer to such questions. If you must ask, then the only answer is “I don’t know”. In addition, I am a person who speaks more directly, and asking me such questions does not give you any psychological comfort. But those who know me (the views of past articles) should know that I am a long-term optimist of Bitcoin. Asking me whether Bitcoin can be bought is equivalent to holding a ready-made answer without reading it, and trying to find the questioner to ask for the answer.

那些可以問上述問題的人基本上是新的新用戶，通常不閱讀Hualihuawai的文章。實際上，我從來沒有對此類問題有標準的答案。如果您必須問，那麼唯一的答案是“我不知道”。此外，我是一個更直接說話的人，問我這樣的問題並不能給您任何心理舒適。但是那些認識我的人（過去文章的觀點）應該知道我是比特幣的長期樂觀主義者。問我是否可以購買比特幣等同於在不閱讀的情況下拿著現成的答案，並試圖找到提問者尋求答案。

As far as the current market is concerned, the one that is still a little bit hot (relatively discussed more in the group) is CZ’s hype of MemeCoin with BNB Chain, but the gameplay is still the old Meme+hype method, Chinese KOLs are busy interacting and shouting orders, and players are still playing PvP games through speed pass (see who enters earlier and who runs faster). This gameplay will not have much impact on the overall market at this stage. Perhaps, we need some more positive catalysts to re-promote or bring a new wave of staged market.

就當前市場而言，CZ與BNB連鎖店的Memecoin大肆宣傳，但遊戲玩法仍然是舊的Meme+Hype方法，中國的KOL忙於互動和喊叫訂單，並且玩家仍在通過Speed Pass玩PVP遊戲（請參閱Who who ers anders Fasters Faster）。此遊戲在此階段不會對整個市場產生太大影響。也許，我們需要一些更積極的催化劑來重新宣傳或帶來新的分階段市場。

Now many people's expectations for the market seem to be mainly focused on changes in the macro environment, such as Trump’s tariffs and other policy changes, the Fed's interest rate cuts, etc. From the overall situation, we seem to be at a new turning point or approaching a new turning point. Especially since this year, as gold continues to rise, Bitcoin and the S&P 500 index have experienced a relatively obvious pullback, as shown in the figure below.

現在，許多人對市場的期望似乎主要集中在宏觀環境的變化上，例如特朗普的關稅和其他政策變化，美聯儲的降低利率降低等。從整體情況下，我們似乎處於一個新的轉折點或接近一個新的轉折點。尤其是自今年以來，隨著黃金的不斷上升，比特幣和標準普爾500指數經歷了相對明顯的回調，如下圖所示。

Although compared with Bitcoin in previous cycles, Bitcoin in this cycle has a long-term super narrative under the approval of ETFs and the recognition of the US government (strategic reserves, etc.), it is subject to some macro issues and investors do not seem to fully favor such high-risk assets. Here we might as well make a simple assumption: as gold continues to reach new highs and reaches a staged peak, when gold re-enters a new consolidation or correction, high-risk assets such as Bitcoin may show some new trend changes or staged reversals.

儘管與以前的周期中的比特幣相比，該週期中的比特幣在ETF的批准下具有長期的超級敘事，並承認了美國政府（戰略儲備等），但它遵守某些宏觀問題，投資者似乎並不完全偏愛這樣的高風險資產。在這裡，我們也可以做一個簡單的假設：隨著黃金繼續達到新的高點並達到階段峰值，當黃金重新進入新的合併或校正時，高風險資產（例如比特幣）可能會顯示出一些新的趨勢變化或分階段的逆轉。

As for when this new trend change or phased reversal will occur, I don’t know. Here I can make another blind guess. If the market continues

至於何時發生這種新趨勢變化或分階段逆轉，我不知道。在這裡，我可以再盲目猜測。如果市場繼續