TRUMP (token)

Yesterday (March 23), Trump tweeted on the social media Truth Social: I love TRUMP (token), very cool. As shown in the picture below.

Yesterday (March 23), Trump posted on the social media Truth Social: I love TRUMP (token), very cool. As shown in the picture below:

However, judging from the price performance of the TRUMP token on that day, it did not seem to generate much trading volume, and the highest increase on that day was only about 7%. This shows that the overall market sentiment is still not optimistic enough. Even if the president calls for orders, people no longer have that crazy purchasing power.

In fact, there have been quite a few positive factors in the market in recent days, such as: the U.S. Treasury Department lifted sanctions on Tornado Cash, the SEC stated that proof-of-work (POW) mining does not involve the issuance and sale of securities, the SEC terminated the lawsuit against Ripple (XRP), Trump spoke at the Blockworks Digital Asset Summit (in a pre-recorded statement) and reiterated that the United States will take measures to ensure that it becomes the “cryptocurrency capital of the world”, White House officials said that the United States may use its gold reserves to buy more Bitcoin, institutions such as MicroStrategy continue to buy more Bitcoin, Trump displayed the Bitcoin white paper hanging on the wall of the White House, and the IMF (International Monetary Fund) is adding Bitcoin to its own reserves… and so on.

But the overall market reaction is relatively flat. The current market gives people the feeling that the narrative is still very strong (encryption has risen to the national level), but liquidity is very weak.

So, has the market completely fallen into a bear market atmosphere?

First of all, this question depends on your definition of a bear market. If you think that the current price of Bitcoin at $86,000 (the price at the time of writing this article) means a bear market, then it is a bear market for you; if you think that the current decline of your holdings by more than 60% means a bear market, then it is a bear market for you…

Recently, through the backend data and the interactive discussions in the group, I found that many people are still pessimistic and at a loss. Some messages or private messages continue to ask me questions about price predictions or trading operations, such as: How much do you think the market will fall next? Do you think Bitcoin can rise to 90,000 this month? Can I buy XX coin now? I am stuck with XX, should I switch to XX now? ... and so on.

Those who can ask the above questions are basically new users or users who don’t usually read Hualihuawai’s articles. In fact, I have never had a standard answer to such questions. If you must ask, then the only answer is “I don’t know”. In addition, I am a person who speaks more directly, and asking me such questions does not give you any psychological comfort. But those who know me (the views of past articles) should know that I am a long-term optimist of Bitcoin. Asking me whether Bitcoin can be bought is equivalent to holding a ready-made answer without reading it, and trying to find the questioner to ask for the answer.

As far as the current market is concerned, the one that is still a little bit hot (relatively discussed more in the group) is CZ’s hype of MemeCoin with BNB Chain, but the gameplay is still the old Meme+hype method, Chinese KOLs are busy interacting and shouting orders, and players are still playing PvP games through speed pass (see who enters earlier and who runs faster). This gameplay will not have much impact on the overall market at this stage. Perhaps, we need some more positive catalysts to re-promote or bring a new wave of staged market.

Now many people's expectations for the market seem to be mainly focused on changes in the macro environment, such as Trump’s tariffs and other policy changes, the Fed's interest rate cuts, etc. From the overall situation, we seem to be at a new turning point or approaching a new turning point. Especially since this year, as gold continues to rise, Bitcoin and the S&P 500 index have experienced a relatively obvious pullback, as shown in the figure below.

Although compared with Bitcoin in previous cycles, Bitcoin in this cycle has a long-term super narrative under the approval of ETFs and the recognition of the US government (strategic reserves, etc.), it is subject to some macro issues and investors do not seem to fully favor such high-risk assets. Here we might as well make a simple assumption: as gold continues to reach new highs and reaches a staged peak, when gold re-enters a new consolidation or correction, high-risk assets such as Bitcoin may show some new trend changes or staged reversals.

As for when this new trend change or phased reversal will occur, I don’t know. Here I can make another blind guess. If the market continues