特朗普的关税和比特币

在4月2日特朗普的关税宣布之后，比特币急剧下降，一周内从84,600美元到75,000美元。

For many years after its inception, bitcoin was seen as an investment that traded unlike traditional assets. But as the cryptocurrency’s tumble thanks to US President Donald Trump’s tariffs demonstrates, these days, it’s trading much like any other risky investment.

成立后的许多年，比特币被视为一种与传统资产不同的投资。但是，由于美国总统唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）的关税所证明的那样，加密货币的流失表明，如今，它的交易就像其他任何风险投资一样。

Indeed, bitcoin fell sharply in the wake of Trump’s tariff announcement on April 2, going from $84,600 to $75,000 within a week. That plunge extended declines that began in February. On January 30, bitcoin was worth over $106,000 after a blistering post-election rally. This drop coincided with a selloff in US stocks, especially technology names. During the week following Trump’s announcement on tariffs, bitcoin shed 10.5%, very close to the 11.6% lost by the S&P 500 and 12.0% by the Nasdaq 100.

的确，在4月2日特朗普的关税宣布之后，比特币急剧下降，一周内从84,600美元到75,000美元。这种暴跌从2月开始的下降量扩大。 1月30日，经过大选后的激烈集会，比特币价值超过106,000美元。这种下降恰逢美国股票的抛售，尤其是技术名称。在特朗普宣布关税之后的一周中，比特币降低了10.5％，非常接近标准普尔500指数的11.6％，纳斯达克100损失了12.0％。

“Bitcoin’s heightened correlation with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 reflects its evolving role as a macro-sensitive asset, driven by institutional behavior and policy shifts,” says Adrian Fritz, head of research at 21Shares, a specialized provider of crypto ETPs. “Institutional investors now treat bitcoin similarly to tech stocks, leading to synchronized trading patterns during macroeconomic events. This alignment intensified under Trump’s pro-crypto agenda.”

“比特币与纳斯达克和标准普尔500指数的增强相关性反映了其作为宏观敏感资产的不断发展的作用，这是由机构行为和政策变化驱动的。” Crypto ETP的专业提供者21Shares的研究主管Adrian Fritz说。 “现在的机构投资者对比特币类似地对待比特币，从而导致宏观经济事件期间的同步交易模式。根据特朗普的亲克莱普托议程，这种一致性加剧了。”

“Bitcoin might be decentralized, but it does not trade in a vacuum,” explains WisdomTree digital assets research director Dovile Silenskyte. “When macro fear spikes, it gets hit like everything else.”

WisdomTree数字资产研究总监Dovile Silenskyte解释说：“比特币可能是分散的，但不会以真空交易。” “当宏观恐惧尖峰时，它会像其他一切一样被打击。”

Trump’s Tariffs and Bitcoin

特朗普的关税和比特币

Trump’s promises to make the United States the new “bitcoin hub” attracted institutional capital, but they also bound bitcoin to political risks impacting traditional markets. Over the past quarter, this evolving relationship has solidified bitcoin’s status as a risk-on asset, says Fritz.

特朗普承诺使美国新的“比特币中心”吸引了机构资本，但它们也将比特币限制在影响传统市场的政治风险中。弗里茨说，在过去的一个季度中，这种不断发展的关系巩固了比特币作为风险对准资产的地位。

Thus, when the tariffs sparked a global flight to safety, investors rapidly exited both equities and bitcoin, triggering parallel 15% declines in BTC, the Nasdaq, and the S&P 500 as capital mainly rotated into safer havens like gold.

因此，当关税引发了全球安全的航班时，投资者迅速退出了股票和比特币，触发了BTC，纳斯达克股票和标准普尔500指数的15％下降，因为资本主要旋转成像黄金这样的更安全的避风港。

At the same time, when news broke of a 90-day suspension of the tariffs and suddenly the risk-on sentiment came roaring back, bitcoin surged in line with a rally across equities. On April 9, BTC gained 8.2%, while the S&P 500 rallied 9.5%. This rebound was not about crypto fundamentals, it was a classic macro-driven relief rally, showing just how plugged-in bitcoin is to the broader market narrative, says Silenskyte.

同时，当新闻打破了90天的关税暂停，突然，风险持续的情绪又回来了，比特币与跨股票的集会一致。 4月9日，BTC上涨了8.2％，而标准普尔500指数上涨了9.5％。 Silenskyte说，这种反弹不是关于加密基础知识的，它是一个经典的宏观驱动浮雕集会，显示了比特币对更广泛的市场叙事的插件。

For Ferdinando Ametrano, managing director of CheckSig and a professor of Bitcoin and Blockchain Technology at Milan-Bicocca University, bitcoin is a thermometer of globalization, sensitive to international scenarios. One part of the market likens it to North American tech stocks. Another part sees it as digital gold, a safe haven asset. Whoever is right will become clearer in the future. As of today, in the tensest moments, the association with equities typical of the most active market participants prevails, since the other component has a buy-and-hold approach.

对于米兰 - 比科卡大学（Milan-Bicocca University）的Checksig和比特币和区块链技术教授Ferdinando Ametrano，比特币是全球化的温度计，对国际情景敏感。市场的一部分将其比作北美科技股。另一部分将其视为避风港资产的数字黄金。无论谁是对的人，将来都会变得更加清晰。截至今天，在最紧张的时刻，与最活跃的市场参与者典型的股票交往占上风，因为另一个组件采用买入和持有的方法。

Bitcoin Much Less Volatile Than in the Past

比特币比过去的波动率要少得多

Despite the recent swings seen in bitcoin, some point to data suggesting the cryptocurrency has become less volatile.

尽管最近在比特币中看到了波动，但某种数据表明，加密货币的波动性降低了。

Over the past five years, bitcoin’s 90-day annualized volatility has been cut nearly in half, from 95% in March 2021 to 52% in March 2025, says Silenskyte. This lower volatility coincides with a structural shift toward institutionalization.

Silenskyte说，在过去的五年中，比特币的90天的年度波动率将几乎减少了一半，从2021年3月的95％降至2025年3月的52％。这种较低的波动率与向制度化的结构转变一致。

This shift is driven by the development of regulated financial instruments such as spot bitcoin ETFs, options contracts, and volatility-linked derivatives, which enable sophisticated strategies like basis trading and risk-hedged exposure, says Fritz. Major financial institutions are now allocating portions of their portfolios to digital assets. Such institutional footprint has gradually displaced retail-driven speculation, fostering a market structure with tighter bid-ask spreads and reduced gap risks compared with previous cycles, and concurrently reduced bitcoin’s historical volatility.

Fritz说，这种转变是由诸如现货比特币ETF，期权合约和与波动率关联的衍生品这样的规范金融工具的开发驱动的，这使得诸如基础交易和风险对冲风险敞口之类的复杂策略。现在，主要的金融机构正在将其投资组合的部分分配给数字资产。与以前的周期相比，这种机构足迹逐渐流离失所，以更严格的出价差异和差距风险降低，并同时降低了比特币的历史波动率，从而逐渐流离失所。

This lower volatility is also partly due to the fact that bitcoin is a 24/7-traded asset, which means it consistently attracts liquidity, leading to deeper market structures, says Max Shannon, research analyst at CoinShares. As institutional participation grows and market infrastructure matures, this increased depth is gradually helping to reduce the asset’s historical volatility.

Coinshares的研究分析师Max Shannon说，这种较低的波动性也部分是由于比特币是24/7贸易资产，这意味着它始终吸引流动性，从而导致更深层次的市场结构。随着机构参与的增长和市场基础设施的成熟，​​这种增加的深度逐渐有助于减少资产的历史波动。

What to Expect From Bitcoin Prices Now?

现在对比特币价格有什么期望？

Trump is the first openly pro-crypto US president, and his second term is expected to usher in a friendlier policy environment for crypto markets. But that doesn’t mean it will all be smooth sailing from here.

特朗普是美国第一个公开支持的美国总统，他的第二任期有望为加密市场带来更友好的政策环境。但这并不意味着从这里开始航行将是顺利的。

Investors should expect both volatility and opportunity, says Silenskyte, who adds that macro liquidity remains the single most powerful force in markets and bitcoin is no exception.

Silenskyte说，投资者应该期望波动和机会，他补充说，宏流动性仍然是市场上最强大的力量，比特币也不例外。

Apart from the introduction of favorable

除了引入有利