特朗普重返白宫可能会使印度的区块链和 CBDC 野心变得复杂

专家担心，尽管两国签署了技术合作伙伴关系并视对方为强大盟友，但特朗普的“美国优先”政策是否可能忽视印度。

Donald Trump is a big fan of India and Hindu. His support for the country is good news, especially in the technology sector, with India being a strong ally in the U.S.’s America First policies. However, experts are concerned whether Trump’s policies may overlook India, despite both countries signing technology partnerships.

唐纳德·特朗普是印度和印度教的忠实粉丝。他对印度的支持是个好消息，特别是在科技领域，因为印度是美国“美国优先”政策的坚定盟友。然而，专家们担心，尽管两国签署了技术合作伙伴关系，但特朗普的政策是否可能忽视印度。

A Trump-led U.S. administration could shift the dynamics of the U.S.-India tech partnership, especially in blockchain, artificial intelligence, and quantum computing, Amit Kumar Gupta, a legal practitioner at the Supreme Court of India, told CoinGeek.

印度最高法院的律师阿米特·库马尔·古普塔 (Amit Kumar Gupta) 告诉 CoinGeek，特朗普领导的美国政府可能会改变美印科技伙伴关系的动态，特别是在区块链、人工智能和量子计算领域。

“A Trump administration may adopt a more inward-focused approach, possibly limiting international AI collaborations. Given that India benefits from U.S. research funding and access to cutting-edge AI developments, a more isolated approach could affect India’s AI advancements, particularly in healthcare, cybersecurity, and smart cities, where AI is vital,” Gupta pointed out.

“特朗普政府可能会采取更加内向的做法，这可能会限制国际人工智能合作。鉴于印度受益于美国的研究资金和尖端人工智能发展，更加孤立的方法可能会影响印度的人工智能进步，特别是在人工智能至关重要的医疗保健、网络安全和智慧城市领域，”古普塔指出。

Under Trump’s ‘America First’ policy, as Trump revives his protectionist trade policies, he has promised hefty tariffs of 10-20% on imports, including a potential 60% on Chinese goods. China, India’s biggest trade partner, is also the world’s largest producer and exporter of electronics. According to Statista, compared to other countries, China generates the highest revenue in the consumer electronics market, at $198.5 billion in 2024.

在特朗普的“美国优先”政策下，随着特朗普恢复保护主义贸易政策，他承诺对进口商品征收10-20%的高额关税，其中对中国商品可能征收60%的关税。中国是印度最大的贸易伙伴，也是全球最大的电子产品生产国和出口国。据Statista统计，与其他国家相比，中国在消费电子市场的收入最高，2024年将达到1985亿美元。

An ‘America First’ approach could result in fragmented AI regulations between the U.S. and India, making compliance more difficult for Indian firms working with U.S. partners, Gupta said. Indian companies may struggle to navigate these varied regulatory environments, potentially hindering the adoption of AI technologies for a smarter, more connected future.

古普塔表示，“美国优先”的做法可能会导致美国和印度之间的人工智能法规支离破碎，使与美国合作伙伴合作的印度公司更加难以合规。印度公司可能很难应对这些不同的监管环境，这可能会阻碍人工智能技术的采用，以实现更智能、更互联的未来。

“A Trump-led administration may prioritize domestic blockchain projects over international collaborations, potentially reducing U.S. investment in India’s blockchain infrastructure. This shift could limit India’s access to resources and expertise needed to scale blockchain applications in trade and supply chain management, slowing its progress in these critical industries,” Gupta added.

“特朗普领导的政府可能会优先考虑国内区块链项目而不是国际合作，这可能会减少美国对印度区块链基础设施的投资。这种转变可能会限制印度获得在贸易和供应链管理中扩展区块链应用所需的资源和专业知识，从而减缓其在这些关键行业的进展。”古普塔补充道。

Despite Trump’s support for cryptocurrencies, he has vowed to stop the introduction of a U.S. central bank digital currency (CBDC), expressing skepticism over its security.

尽管特朗普支持加密货币，但他发誓要停止推出美国央行数字货币（CBDC），对其安全性表示怀疑。

“Tonight, I’m also making another promise to protect Americans from government tyranny. As your President, I will never allow the creation of a central bank digital currency,” Trump said in January.

“今晚，我还做出了另一个承诺，保护美国人免受政府暴政的侵害。作为你们的总统，我永远不会允许创建央行数字货币，”特朗普在一月份表示。

“Such a currency would give the federal government, our government, the absolute control over your money. They could take your money, and you wouldn’t even know it was gone. This would be a dangerous threat to freedom and I will stop it from coming to America.”

“这样的货币将使联邦政府、我们的政府对你的钱拥有绝对的控制权。他们可以拿走你的钱，而你甚至不知道钱已经不见了。这将是对自由的危险威胁，我将阻止它来到美国。”

This starkly contrasts India’s stance on CBDCs, which has been pushing to popularize the e-rupee. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) started its first digital rupee pilot in the wholesale segment two years ago on November 1, s, while the retail digital rupee pilot began on December 1, 2022.

这与印度对 CBDC 的立场形成鲜明对比，印度一直在推动电子卢比的普及。印度储备银行 (RBI) 于两年前的 11 月 1 日在批发领域启动了第一个数字卢比试点，而零售数字卢比试点则于 2022 年 12 月 1 日开始。

“I think CBDC will facilitate cross-border payments in a much more efficient and cost-effective manner than anything else,” RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said at the Business Standard – BFSI Insight Summit.

印度央行行长 Shaktikanta Das 在商业标准 - BFSI 洞察峰会上表示：“我认为 CBDC 将以比其他任何方式都更高效、更具成本效益的方式促进跨境支付。”

The central bank also announced plans to make its e-rupee accessible to more retail users by including non-bank payment system operators to offer CBDC wallets. The move is expected to test how resilient India’s CBDC platform is in handling multi-channel transactions.

央行还宣布计划通过让非银行支付系统运营商提供 CBDC 钱包，让更多零售用户可以使用其电子卢比。此举预计将测试印度 CBDC 平台在处理多渠道交易方面的弹性。

“If Trump’s administration takes a conservative approach toward blockchain-based digital currencies, this could complicate India’s plans to establish a cross-border, blockchain-friendly CBDC system. Without U.S. collaboration on regulatory frameworks for interoperable CBDCs, India’s vision for a blockchain-powered digital rupee may encounter obstacles, particularly in cross-border functionality with the U.S.,” Gupta pointed out.

“如果特朗普政府对基于区块链的数字货币采取保守态度，这可能会使印度建立跨境、区块链友好的 CBDC 系统的计划变得复杂。如果美国不就可互操作的 CBDC 监管框架进行合作，印度对区块链驱动的数字卢比的愿景可能会遇到障碍，特别是在与美国的跨境功能方面，”Gupta 指出。

Trump’s previous economic policies focused on financial sovereignty, imposing strict regulations on cross-border transactions, Gupta said. If revived, Indian companies using blockchain for cross-border payments and decentralized finance (DeFi) may face new compliance hurdles, disrupting efforts to streamline financial transactions between the U.S. and India.

古普塔表示，特朗普此前的经济政策侧重于金融主权，对跨境交易实施严格监管。如果复活，使用区块链进行跨境支付和去中心化金融（DeFi）的印度公司可能会面临新的合规障碍，从而扰乱简化美国和印度之间金融交易的努力。

“Trump’s back—and he’s not going to be holding back on India! Branding the nation a ‘big trade abuser; he’s going to be hinting at reigniting his first-term trade tensions, potentially slapping sky-high tariffs on over $75 billion of Indian exports to the U.S.,” Raj Kapoor, founder of India Blockchain Alliance, told CoinGeek.

“特朗普回来了——他不会在印度问题上退缩！给国家贴上“贸易滥用者”的标签；印度区块链联盟创始人拉吉·卡普尔 (Raj Kapoor) 告诉 CoinGeek，他将暗示将在第一任期内重新引发贸易紧张局势，并可能对价值超过 750 亿美元的印度输美商品征收高额关税。

“But don’t forget: the American tilt towards protectionism didn’t pause under Biden either. Buckle up—U.S.-India trade dynamics are about to get fiery and this is just the appetizer,” Kapoor added.

“但不要忘记：美国对保护主义的倾向在拜登领导下也没有停止。系好安全带——美印贸易动态即将变得激烈，而这只是开胃菜，”卡普尔补充道。

The RBI, however, is unperturbed by the U.S.

然而，印度储备银行对美国的表现并不在意