川普重返白宮可能會使印度的區塊鏈和 CBDC 野心變得複雜

專家擔心，儘管兩國簽署了技術合作夥伴關係並視對方為強大盟友，但川普的「美國優先」政策是否可能忽視印度。

Donald Trump is a big fan of India and Hindu. His support for the country is good news, especially in the technology sector, with India being a strong ally in the U.S.’s America First policies. However, experts are concerned whether Trump’s policies may overlook India, despite both countries signing technology partnerships.

唐納德·特朗普是印度和印度教的忠實粉絲。他對印度的支持是個好消息，特別是在科技領域，因為印度是美國「美國優先」政策的堅定盟友。然而，專家擔心，儘管兩國簽署了技術合作關係，但川普的政策是否可能忽視印度。

A Trump-led U.S. administration could shift the dynamics of the U.S.-India tech partnership, especially in blockchain, artificial intelligence, and quantum computing, Amit Kumar Gupta, a legal practitioner at the Supreme Court of India, told CoinGeek.

印度最高法院的律師阿米特·庫馬爾·古普塔(Amit Kumar Gupta) 告訴CoinGeek，川普領導的美國政府可能會改變美印科技夥伴關係的動態，特別是在區塊鏈、人工智慧和量子計算領域。

“A Trump administration may adopt a more inward-focused approach, possibly limiting international AI collaborations. Given that India benefits from U.S. research funding and access to cutting-edge AI developments, a more isolated approach could affect India’s AI advancements, particularly in healthcare, cybersecurity, and smart cities, where AI is vital,” Gupta pointed out.

「川普政府可能會採取更內向的做法，這可能會限制國際人工智慧合作。鑑於印度受益於美國的研究資金和尖端人工智慧發展，更孤立的方法可能會影響印度的人工智慧進步，特別是在人工智慧至關重要的醫療保健、網路安全和智慧城市領域，」古普塔指出。

Under Trump’s ‘America First’ policy, as Trump revives his protectionist trade policies, he has promised hefty tariffs of 10-20% on imports, including a potential 60% on Chinese goods. China, India’s biggest trade partner, is also the world’s largest producer and exporter of electronics. According to Statista, compared to other countries, China generates the highest revenue in the consumer electronics market, at $198.5 billion in 2024.

在川普的「美國優先」政策下，隨著川普恢復保護主義貿易政策，他承諾對進口商品徵收10-20%的高額關稅，其中對中國商品可能徵收60%的關稅。中國是印度最大的貿易夥伴，也是全球最大的電子產品生產國和出口國。根據Statista統計，與其他國家相比，中國在消費性電子市場的收入最高，2024年將達到1,985億美元。

An ‘America First’ approach could result in fragmented AI regulations between the U.S. and India, making compliance more difficult for Indian firms working with U.S. partners, Gupta said. Indian companies may struggle to navigate these varied regulatory environments, potentially hindering the adoption of AI technologies for a smarter, more connected future.

古普塔表示，「美國優先」的做法可能會導緻美國和印度之間的人工智慧法規支離破碎，使與美國合作夥伴合作的印度公司更加難以合規。印度公司可能很難應對這些不同的監管環境，這可能會阻礙人工智慧技術的採用，以實現更智慧、更互聯的未來。

“A Trump-led administration may prioritize domestic blockchain projects over international collaborations, potentially reducing U.S. investment in India’s blockchain infrastructure. This shift could limit India’s access to resources and expertise needed to scale blockchain applications in trade and supply chain management, slowing its progress in these critical industries,” Gupta added.

「川普領導的政府可能會優先考慮國內區塊鏈項目而不是國際合作，這可能會減少美國對印度區塊鏈基礎設施的投資。這種轉變可能會限製印度獲得在貿易和供應鏈管理中擴展區塊鏈應用所需的資源和專業知識，從而減緩其在這些關鍵行業的進展。

Despite Trump’s support for cryptocurrencies, he has vowed to stop the introduction of a U.S. central bank digital currency (CBDC), expressing skepticism over its security.

儘管川普支持加密貨幣，但他發誓要停止推出美國央行數位貨幣（CBDC），對其安全性表示懷疑。

“Tonight, I’m also making another promise to protect Americans from government tyranny. As your President, I will never allow the creation of a central bank digital currency,” Trump said in January.

「今晚，我還做出了另一個承諾，保護美國人免受政府暴政的侵害。身為你們的總統，我永遠不會允許創建央行數位貨幣，」川普在一月表示。

“Such a currency would give the federal government, our government, the absolute control over your money. They could take your money, and you wouldn’t even know it was gone. This would be a dangerous threat to freedom and I will stop it from coming to America.”

「這樣的貨幣將使聯邦政府、我們的政府對你的錢擁有絕對的控制權。他們可以拿走你的錢，而你甚至不知道錢已經不見了。這將是對自由的危險威脅，我將阻止它來到美國。

This starkly contrasts India’s stance on CBDCs, which has been pushing to popularize the e-rupee. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) started its first digital rupee pilot in the wholesale segment two years ago on November 1, s, while the retail digital rupee pilot began on December 1, 2022.

這與印度​​對 CBDC 的立場形成鮮明對比，印度一直在推動電子盧比的普及。印度儲備銀行 (RBI) 於兩年前的 11 月 1 日在批發領域啟動了第一個數位盧比試點，而零售數位盧比試點於 2022 年 12 月 1 日開始。

“I think CBDC will facilitate cross-border payments in a much more efficient and cost-effective manner than anything else,” RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said at the Business Standard – BFSI Insight Summit.

印度央行行長 Shaktikanta Das 在商業標準 - BFSI 洞察峰會上表示：“我認為 CBDC 將以比其他任何方式都更高效、更具成本效益的方式促進跨境支付。”

The central bank also announced plans to make its e-rupee accessible to more retail users by including non-bank payment system operators to offer CBDC wallets. The move is expected to test how resilient India’s CBDC platform is in handling multi-channel transactions.

央行還宣布計劃透過讓非銀行支付系統營運商提供 CBDC 錢包，讓更多零售用戶可以使用其電子盧比。此舉預計將測試印度 CBDC 平台在處理多通路交易方面的彈性。

“If Trump’s administration takes a conservative approach toward blockchain-based digital currencies, this could complicate India’s plans to establish a cross-border, blockchain-friendly CBDC system. Without U.S. collaboration on regulatory frameworks for interoperable CBDCs, India’s vision for a blockchain-powered digital rupee may encounter obstacles, particularly in cross-border functionality with the U.S.,” Gupta pointed out.

「如果川普政府對基於區塊鏈的數位貨幣採取保守態度，這可能會使印度建立跨境、區塊鏈友好的 CBDC 系統的計劃變得複雜。如果美國不就可互通的 CBDC 監管框架進行合作，印度對區塊鏈驅動的數位盧比的願景可能會遇到障礙，特別是在與美國的跨境功能方面，」Gupta 指出。

Trump’s previous economic policies focused on financial sovereignty, imposing strict regulations on cross-border transactions, Gupta said. If revived, Indian companies using blockchain for cross-border payments and decentralized finance (DeFi) may face new compliance hurdles, disrupting efforts to streamline financial transactions between the U.S. and India.

古普塔表示，川普先前的經濟政策著重於金融主權，對跨境交易實施嚴格監管。如果復活，使用區塊鏈進行跨境支付和去中心化金融（DeFi）的印度公司可能會面臨新的合規障礙，從而擾亂簡化美國和印度之間金融交易的努力。

“Trump’s back—and he’s not going to be holding back on India! Branding the nation a ‘big trade abuser; he’s going to be hinting at reigniting his first-term trade tensions, potentially slapping sky-high tariffs on over $75 billion of Indian exports to the U.S.,” Raj Kapoor, founder of India Blockchain Alliance, told CoinGeek.

「川普回來了——他不會在印度問題上退縮！給國家貼上「貿易濫用者」的標籤；印度區塊鏈聯盟創始人拉吉·卡普爾(Raj Kapoor) 告訴CoinGeek，他將暗示將重新引發第一任期的貿易緊張局勢，並可能對價值超過750 億美元的印度輸美商品徵收高額關稅。

“But don’t forget: the American tilt towards protectionism didn’t pause under Biden either. Buckle up—U.S.-India trade dynamics are about to get fiery and this is just the appetizer,” Kapoor added.

「但不要忘記：美國對保護主義的傾向在拜登領導下也沒有停止。係好安全帶——美印貿易動態即將變得激烈，而這只是開胃菜，」卡普爾補充道。

The RBI, however, is unperturbed by the U.S.

然而，印度儲備銀行對美國的表現並不在意