为什么特朗普需要比特币才能首先放下

BITWISE的Alpha Strategies负责人杰夫·帕克（Jeff Park）在3月9日星期日断言，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）将继续购买比特币的购买，直到价格达到接近60000美元。

Jeff Park, Head of Alpha Strategies at Bitwise, has shared his unique perspective on the timing of US President Donald Trump’s involvement in the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.

Bitwise Alpha Strategies的负责人杰夫·帕克（Jeff Park）分享了他对美国总统唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）参与战略比特币保护区的时机的独特观点。

According to Park, the administration might prefer to see BTC decline to around the $60,000 mark before the president steps in with further purchases.

据帕克称，政府可能希望在总统进一步购买之前看到BTC下降到60,000美元左右。

The X post comes amid growing speculation around so-called “budget-neutral” methods the administration might use to acquire additional BTC, confirmed by the administration to already control roughly 200,000 BTC—valued at around $17 billion at current prices—seized through criminal and civil asset forfeiture.

X帖子围绕政府可能用来获取额外BTC的所谓“预算中立”方法的猜测越来越大，政府证实，已经控制了大约200,000 BTC（以当前价格为170亿美元），这是通过刑事和民事资产没收的。

The executive order, however, prohibits selling Bitcoin within the reserve.

但是，行政命令禁止在预备役中出售比特币。

Earlier this year, President Trump issued an Executive Order creating the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, positioning the United States to maintain a leading role in the digital asset space.

今年早些时候，特朗普总统发布了一项行政命令，创建了战略性比特币储备，将美国定位为在数字资产领域中保持领先地位。

The administration confirmed that it already controls roughly 200,000 BTC—valued at around $17 billion at current prices—seized through criminal and civil asset forfeiture.

政府确认，它已经控制了大约200,000 BTC（以当前价格为170亿美元）通过犯罪和民事资产没收来估算。

While the Executive Order prohibits selling Bitcoin within the reserve, it directs the Secretaries of the Treasury and Commerce to study “budget-neutral” ways of accumulating additional BTC in the future, ensuring no extra cost to taxpayers.

虽然行政命令禁止在储备金内销售比特币，但它指示财政和商业的秘书研究将来积累额外BTC的“预算中性”方式，从而确保对纳税人没有额外的费用。

Can Trump Afford $100K Bitcoin?

特朗普可以负担得起1万美元的比特币吗？

Jeff Park’s commentary provides a fresh take on the narrative surrounding presidential involvement in the Bitcoin narrative.

杰夫·帕克（Jeff Park）的评论提供了围绕比特币叙事的总统参与的叙述。

As part of his analysis, Park noted that officials prefer not to be seen buying at the market highs.

作为分析的一部分，帕克指出，官员们宁愿看不到在市场高点购买购买。

“I’m going to let you in on a little secret from my primary field experience on how the BTC pitch works… I know one thing better about institutions than almost anyone else: public officials almost never buy bitcoin on trend/momentum and certainly not at the highs.”

“我将从我的主要领域体验中就BTC音调运作的方式来介绍一个小秘密……我对机构的了解要比几乎任何其他人都更好：公职人员几乎永远不会在趋势/势头上购买比特币，而当然不是在高处。”

He added: “The reason is simple – they don’t want to get fired when the inevitable drawdown hits or worse, ruin their reputation in the public domain.”

他补充说：“原因很简单 - 当不可避免的缩减命中或更糟时，他们不想被解雇，破坏了他们在公共领域的声誉。”

According to Jeff Park, political figures, especially one as scrutinized as the US President, face an asymmetric risk profile. The fallout from buying at a higher price—only to see the market correct—can be devastating from a public-relations standpoint. However, the incentives shift dramatically when BTC dips to more attractive levels.

根据杰夫·帕克（Jeff Park）的说法，政治人物，尤其是像美国总统一样受到审查的人物，面临着不对称的风险状况。从公共关系的角度来看，以较高的价格购买的后果（只能看到市场正确）可能会造成毁灭性。但是，当BTC下降到更具吸引力的水平时，激励措施急剧变化。

“Can you imagine the headlines that will come for Trump if he buys bitcoin at $100k and it goes to $70k? On the positive side, if BTC gets to very cheap levels, the incentives for politicians and sovereigns to buy will increase… It is always +EV for the incentive calculation of an executive branch (which must win elections) to wait for BTC to get to $60k and buy and take credit.”

“您能想象如果特朗普以10万美元的价格购买比特币，将为特朗普购买的头条新闻，售价为7万美元？从积极的一面来看，如果BTC达到非常便宜的水平，那么政治家和君主购买的激励措施将会增加……对于激励分支机构（必须赢得选举）等待BTC才能获得60k $ 60k并购买并获得信誉的激励计算总是 +EV。”

According to Jeff Park, a strategic reserve is intended as a long-term store of value, but public officials prefer to avoid immediate backlash in the event of any downside price volatility.

根据杰夫·帕克（Jeff Park）的说法，战略储备旨在作为长期价值存储，但公职人员更喜欢在任何下行价格波动时避免立即强烈反对。

This pressure makes them less likely to make “high-risk” moves—especially ones that might expose them to questions of accountability.

这种压力使他们不太可能采取“高风险”举动，尤其是可能使他们遇到问责制的问题。

The newly formed Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, often branded by the administration as a “digital Fort Knox,” is explicitly designed to remain untouched over the long haul.

新成立的战略比特币储备通常被政府称为“数字诺克斯”，明确设计为在长期内保持不变。

White House Crypto and AI Czar David Sacks has likened it to “a 21st-century bulwark of national financial security,” underscoring the administration’s ambitions for American cryptocurrency leadership.

白宫加密货币和AI沙皇大卫·萨克斯（David Sacks）将其比作“国家金融安全的21世纪堡垒”，强调了政府对美国加密货币领导的野心。

However, according to Jeff Park, for a reserve program to truly gain traction, it requires several elements, including programmatic buying vs discretionary “studies,” shared decision-making (to distribute accountability), and an element of permanence—either through legislative safeguards or authoritative action undertaken behind closed doors.

但是，根据杰夫·帕克（Jeff Park）的说法，为了真正获得一项储备计划，它需要几个要素，包括程序购买与可酌情的“研究”，共同的决策（分发问责制）以及永久性的要素 - 通过立法保障措施或封闭门后面采取的权威行动。

Jeff Park’s admiration for public pension Chief Investment Officers who have proactively incorporated Bitcoin also highlights the contrast in decision-making timelines: “This is at the core why I give so much RESPECT to the public pension CIOs that have bought BTC or invested in crypto strategies. They are simply true patriots – committed to long-term thinking for the benefit of all against the potential privatized loss of one’s self. Heroes.”

杰夫·帕克（Jeff Park）对积极纳入比特币的公共养老金首席投资官的钦佩也强调了决策时间表的对比：“这是为什么我对购买BTC或投资加密战略投资的公共养老金CIO的核心。他们只是真正的爱国者 - 致力于长期思考，以使所有人的利益与潜在的私有化自我丧失。英雄。”

His applause underscores how these executives, unlike politicians seeking reelection or mindful of wide public scrutiny, often have more leeway to invest for the long haul, provided they have fiduciary guardrails in place.

他的掌声强调了这些高管如何与寻求连任或谨慎公开审查的政客不同，只要他们拥有信托护卫舰，通常会有更多的余地来投资。