為什麼特朗普需要比特幣才能首先放下

BITWISE的Alpha Strategies負責人傑夫·帕克（Jeff Park）在3月9日星期日斷言，美國總統唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）將繼續購買比特幣的購買，直到價格達到接近60000美元。

Jeff Park, Head of Alpha Strategies at Bitwise, has shared his unique perspective on the timing of US President Donald Trump’s involvement in the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.

Bitwise Alpha Strategies的負責人傑夫·帕克（Jeff Park）分享了他對美國總統唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）參與戰略比特幣保護區的時機的獨特觀點。

According to Park, the administration might prefer to see BTC decline to around the $60,000 mark before the president steps in with further purchases.

據帕克稱，政府可能希望在總統進一步購買之前看到BTC下降到60,000美元左右。

The X post comes amid growing speculation around so-called “budget-neutral” methods the administration might use to acquire additional BTC, confirmed by the administration to already control roughly 200,000 BTC—valued at around $17 billion at current prices—seized through criminal and civil asset forfeiture.

X帖子圍繞政府可能用來獲取額外BTC的所謂“預算中立”方法的猜測越來越大，政府證實，已經控制了大約200,000 BTC（以當前價格為170億美元），這是通過刑事和民事資產沒收的。

The executive order, however, prohibits selling Bitcoin within the reserve.

但是，行政命令禁止在預備役中出售比特幣。

Earlier this year, President Trump issued an Executive Order creating the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, positioning the United States to maintain a leading role in the digital asset space.

今年早些時候，特朗普總統發布了一項行政命令，創建了戰略性比特幣儲備，將美國定位為在數字資產領域中保持領先地位。

The administration confirmed that it already controls roughly 200,000 BTC—valued at around $17 billion at current prices—seized through criminal and civil asset forfeiture.

政府確認，它已經控制了大約200,000 BTC（以當前價格為170億美元）通過犯罪和民事資產沒收來估算。

While the Executive Order prohibits selling Bitcoin within the reserve, it directs the Secretaries of the Treasury and Commerce to study “budget-neutral” ways of accumulating additional BTC in the future, ensuring no extra cost to taxpayers.

雖然行政命令禁止在儲備金內銷售比特幣，但它指示財政和商業的秘書研究將來積累額外BTC的“預算中性”方式，從而確保對納稅人沒有額外的費用。

Can Trump Afford $100K Bitcoin?

特朗普可以負擔得起1萬美元的比特幣嗎？

Jeff Park’s commentary provides a fresh take on the narrative surrounding presidential involvement in the Bitcoin narrative.

傑夫·帕克（Jeff Park）的評論提供了圍繞比特幣敘事的總統參與的敘述。

As part of his analysis, Park noted that officials prefer not to be seen buying at the market highs.

作為分析的一部分，帕克指出，官員們寧願看不到在市場高點購買購買。

“I’m going to let you in on a little secret from my primary field experience on how the BTC pitch works… I know one thing better about institutions than almost anyone else: public officials almost never buy bitcoin on trend/momentum and certainly not at the highs.”

“我將從我的主要領域體驗中就BTC音調運作的方式來介紹一個小秘密……我對機構的了解要比幾乎任何其他人都更好：公職人員幾乎永遠不會在趨勢/勢頭上購買比特幣，而當然不是在高處。”

He added: “The reason is simple – they don’t want to get fired when the inevitable drawdown hits or worse, ruin their reputation in the public domain.”

他補充說：“原因很簡單 - 當不可避免的縮減命中或更糟時，他們不想被解僱，破壞了他們在公共領域的聲譽。”

According to Jeff Park, political figures, especially one as scrutinized as the US President, face an asymmetric risk profile. The fallout from buying at a higher price—only to see the market correct—can be devastating from a public-relations standpoint. However, the incentives shift dramatically when BTC dips to more attractive levels.

根據傑夫·帕克（Jeff Park）的說法，政治人物，尤其是像美國總統一樣受到審查的人物，面臨著不對稱的風險狀況。從公共關係的角度來看，以較高的價格購買的後果（只能看到市場正確）可能會造成毀滅性。但是，當BTC下降到更具吸引力的水平時，激勵措施急劇變化。

“Can you imagine the headlines that will come for Trump if he buys bitcoin at $100k and it goes to $70k? On the positive side, if BTC gets to very cheap levels, the incentives for politicians and sovereigns to buy will increase… It is always +EV for the incentive calculation of an executive branch (which must win elections) to wait for BTC to get to $60k and buy and take credit.”

“您能想像如果特朗普以10萬美元的價格購買比特幣，將為特朗普購買的頭條新聞，售價為7萬美元？從積極的一面來看，如果BTC達到非常便宜的水平，那麼政治家和君主購買的激勵措施將會增加……對於激勵分支機構（必須贏得選舉）等待BTC才能獲得60k $ 60k併購買並獲得信譽的激勵計算總是 +EV。”

According to Jeff Park, a strategic reserve is intended as a long-term store of value, but public officials prefer to avoid immediate backlash in the event of any downside price volatility.

根據傑夫·帕克（Jeff Park）的說法，戰略儲備旨在作為長期價值存儲，但公職人員更喜歡在任何下行價格波動時避免立即強烈反對。

This pressure makes them less likely to make “high-risk” moves—especially ones that might expose them to questions of accountability.

這種壓力使他們不太可能採取“高風險”舉動，尤其是可能使他們遇到問責制的問題。

The newly formed Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, often branded by the administration as a “digital Fort Knox,” is explicitly designed to remain untouched over the long haul.

新成立的戰略比特幣儲備通常被政府稱為“數字諾克斯”，明確設計為在長期內保持不變。

White House Crypto and AI Czar David Sacks has likened it to “a 21st-century bulwark of national financial security,” underscoring the administration’s ambitions for American cryptocurrency leadership.

白宮加密貨幣和AI沙皇大衛·薩克斯（David Sacks）將其比作“國家金融安全的21世紀堡壘”，強調了政府對美國加密貨幣領導的野心。

However, according to Jeff Park, for a reserve program to truly gain traction, it requires several elements, including programmatic buying vs discretionary “studies,” shared decision-making (to distribute accountability), and an element of permanence—either through legislative safeguards or authoritative action undertaken behind closed doors.

但是，根據傑夫·帕克（Jeff Park）的說法，為了真正獲得一項儲備計劃，它需要幾個要素，包括程序購買與可酌情的“研究”，共同的決策（分發問責制）以及永久性的要素 - 通過立法保障措施或封閉門後面採取的權威行動。

Jeff Park’s admiration for public pension Chief Investment Officers who have proactively incorporated Bitcoin also highlights the contrast in decision-making timelines: “This is at the core why I give so much RESPECT to the public pension CIOs that have bought BTC or invested in crypto strategies. They are simply true patriots – committed to long-term thinking for the benefit of all against the potential privatized loss of one’s self. Heroes.”

傑夫·帕克（Jeff Park）對積極納入比特幣的公共養老金首席投資官的欽佩也強調了決策時間表的對比：“這是為什麼我對購買BTC或投資加密戰略投資的公共養老金CIO的核心。他們只是真正的愛國者 - 致力於長期思考，以使所有人的利益與潛在的私有化自我喪失。英雄。”

His applause underscores how these executives, unlike politicians seeking reelection or mindful of wide public scrutiny, often have more leeway to invest for the long haul, provided they have fiduciary guardrails in place.

他的掌聲強調了這些高管如何與尋求連任或謹慎公開審查的政客不同，只要他們擁有信託護衛艦，通常會有更多的餘地來投資。