特朗普政府建立“数字黄金”比特币储备

在3月6日的行政命令中，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）建立了一个“数字黄金”比特币保护区，以利用联邦执法部门抓住的任何BTC。

US President Donald Trump is fundamentally changing both currency and trade policy. The Trump administration is integrating Bitcoin (BTC) into the US strategic reserves and tying the dollar's fate to the outcome of a "Mar-a-Lago Accord" with Canada, Mexico, and China, among other economic partners.

美国总统唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）从根本上改变了货​​币和贸易政策。特朗普政府正在将比特币（BTC）纳入美国战略储备，并将美元的命运与与加拿大，墨西哥和中国的“玛丽亚·拉戈协定”的结果联系起来，以及其他经济伙伴。

In a March 6 executive order, Trump established a "digital gold" BTC reserve, to be capitalised with any BTC seized by federal law enforcement and, if needed, through US purchases of the cryptocurrency on the open market.

在3月6日的行政命令中，特朗普建立了一个“数字黄金” BTC储备，将通过联邦执法部门抓住的任何BTC，并在需要时通过美国在公开市场上购买加密货币。

With the supply of BTC capped at 21 million coins, the administration wants the United States to secure a first-mover advantage as a major holder of an emerging store of value.

随着BTC的供应限制为2100万枚硬币，政府希望美国作为新兴商店的主要持有人获得第一步优势。

Around the world, governments are increasingly considering BTC as a reserve asset. In Brazil, Congressman Eros Biondini has advanced a proposal to require the central bank to accumulate BTC until it accounts for 5% of the country's reserves.

在世界范围内，政府越来越多地将BTC视为储备资产。在巴西，国会议员Eros Biondini提出了一项提议，要求中央银行积累BTC，直到占该国储量的5％。

But one of the world's largest BTC holders is Gelephu Mindfulness City in Bhutan, which holds the cryptocurrency as a strategic reserve.

但是，世界上最大的BTC持有人之一是不丹的Gelephu正念城市，该城市将加密货币作为战略储备。

El Salvador president, Nayib Bukele continues to buy BTC as a strategic reserve, and legislators in Hong Kong have floated a proposal to add BTC to the city-state's official reserves.

萨尔瓦多总裁纳伊布·布克勒（Nayib Bukele）继续以战略储备为止，香港的立法者提出了将BTC添加到城市国家官方储备中的提议。

China is also rumoured to be building a BTC reserve in stealth. And a recent Swiss popular initiative aims to require the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to include BTC in its holdings, though SNB President Martin Schlegel rejects the idea, citing concerns about the cryptocurrency's volatility, liquidity, and security.

有传言称，中国正在隐身建立BTC储备。瑞士最近的一项流行倡议旨在要求瑞士国家银行（SNB）将BTC纳入其股份，尽管SNB总裁马丁·施莱格尔（Martin Schlegel）拒绝了这一想法，理由是对加密货币的波动性，流动性和安全性感到担忧。

However, the US government's decision to join the reserve-diversification party raises serious doubts about the future of its own currency's hegemony.

但是，美国政府加入储备多元化党的决定引起了人们对自己货币霸权的未来的严重怀疑。

If more countries or institutions decide to hold BTC instead of dollars, global demand for dollar reserves could decrease over the long term.

如果更多的国家或机构决定持有BTC而不是美元，那么从长远来看，全球对美元储备的需求可能会减少。

Legitimising a rival store of value may shake confidence in the greenback, eroding America's global reserve-currency status and the advantages it confers. Without strong international demand for the dollar, the US could ultimately lose its "exorbitant privilege" to print and borrow at low interest rates.

合法化价值的竞争对手可能会激发人们对绿色的信心，从而侵蚀美国的全球储备货币状况及其所赋予的优势。如果没有强烈的国际对美元需求，美国最终可能会失去其以低利率打印和借用的“高昂特权”。

Alongside the BTC policy, the Trump administration is also fundamentally reshaping US trade policy. It has slapped 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports; increased tariffs on Chinese goods (driving the total average US tariff against that country to 39%); and threatened similar measures against European agriculture.

除BTC政策外，特朗普政府还从根本上重塑了美国贸易政策。它已对加拿大和墨西哥进口的25％关税。对中国商品的关税增加（将美国对该国的平均税率提高到39％）；并威胁要对欧洲农业采取类似措施。

Because Canada and Mexico rely so heavily on trade with the US, tariffs reduce their exports and dollar inflows, weakening their currencies. By contrast, China's more diversified export base and controlled currency regime allows it to mitigate US tariff effects and support the renminbi.

由于加拿大和墨西哥非常依赖与美国的贸易，因此关税减少了出口和美元流入，削弱了其货币。相比之下，中国更加多样化的出口基础和控制货币制度使其可以减轻美国关税影响并支持人民币。

Moreover, since the US relies so heavily on intermediate inputs from China, the tariffs will raise US production costs, driving up consumer prices and inflation, and eroding the dollar's appeal.

此外，由于美国非常依赖中国的中间投入，因此关税将提高美国的生产成本，提高消费者价格和通货膨胀，并侵蚀美元的吸引力。

In addition to reducing demand for US goods and the dollars to buy them, Trump's policies have introduced unpredictability and thus reduced confidence in US markets.

除了减少对美国商品的需求和购买美元的需求外，特朗普的政策还引入了不可预测性，从而降低了对美国市场的信心。

His threats are already pushing the European Union to consider greater currency diversification, and to look for alternative markets.

他的威胁已经在推动欧盟考虑更大的货币多元化，并寻找替代市场。

With fewer investors choosing to hold dollar-denominated assets, the dollar has begun to weaken.

随着投资者选择持有以美元计价的资产的减少，美元已经开始削弱。

Can the US really adopt BTC as a strategic reserve and pursue such trade policies without jeopardising the dollar's global standing?

美国能否真正采用BTC作为战略储备，并在不损害美元的全球地位的情况下追求此类贸易政策？

Countries commonly hold multiple reserve assets -- euros, yen, pound sterling, or gold -- in addition to the dollar. Yet BTC's unique, decentralised structure and finite supply set it apart from these traditional holdings.

除美元外，国家通常持有多个储备金 - 欧元，日元，英镑或黄金。然而，BTC独特的，分散的结构和有限的供应使其与这些传统持有量不同。

By formally endorsing it, the US could inadvertently accelerate a global shift away from dollar reserves.

通过正式认可它，美国可以无意中加速从美元储备中加速全球转变。

Trump and his team seem to be betting that other forces will kick in, owing to foreigners' outsize dependence on the US economy. The assumption is that foreign producers will accept lower prices to remain competitive, or that foreign currencies will depreciate to offset the effects of US tariffs, shifting the burden onto foreigners rather than American consumers and producers.

特朗普和他的团队似乎敢打赌，由于外国人对美国经济的依赖，其他部队将启动。假设是外国生产者将接受较低的价格以保持竞争力，或者外币将贬值以抵消美国关税的影响，将负担转移到外国人而不是美国消费者和生产者身上。

Such is the thinking behind the so-called "Mar-a-Lago Accord": the Trump administration's strategy of leveraging punitive tariffs to weaken the dollar, reduce US borrowing costs, and boost manufacturing -- all while preserving the dollar's global dominance.

这就是所谓的“玛拉·拉戈协定”背后的想法：特朗普政府利用惩罚性关税削弱美元，降低美国借贷成本并提高制造业的策略，同时又保留了美元的全球统治地位。

Unlike the Plaza Accord or Louvre Accord, in which major economies agreed to coordinate exchange rates, the US is coercing its major trading partners and foreign central banks into weakening their currencies relative to the dollar, ultimately favoring US economic interests.

与主要经济体同意协调汇率的广场协议或卢浮宫协议不同，美国正在强迫其主要的贸易伙伴和外国中央银行相对于美元削弱其货币，最终有利于美国的经济利益。

However, if these economic partners refuse to cooperate, the plan could unravel, and all of the accord's goals could be derailed.

但是，如果这些经济合作伙伴拒绝合作，该计划可能会瓦解，所有协议的目标都可以脱轨。

Much of this strategy comes from a November 2024 paper by the designated chair of Trump's Council of Economic Advisers, Stephen Miran, who has proposed that the US introduce tariffs in a measured way so that it can collect revenues from import duties without sparking prohibitively high prices for consumers.

该策略的大部分来自2024年11月的特朗普经济顾问委员会主席斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）的论文，斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）提议以衡量的方式引入关税，以便它可以从进口关税中收取收入而不会激发消费者的高价。

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