特朗普政府建立“數字黃金”比特幣儲備

在3月6日的行政命令中，美國總統唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）建立了一個“數字黃金”比特幣保護區，以利用聯邦執法部門抓住的任何BTC。

US President Donald Trump is fundamentally changing both currency and trade policy. The Trump administration is integrating Bitcoin (BTC) into the US strategic reserves and tying the dollar's fate to the outcome of a "Mar-a-Lago Accord" with Canada, Mexico, and China, among other economic partners.

美國總統唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）從根本上改變了貨​​幣和貿易政策。特朗普政府正在將比特幣（BTC）納入美國戰略儲備，並將美元的命運與與加拿大，墨西哥和中國的“瑪麗亞·拉戈協定”的結果聯繫起來，以及其他經濟夥伴。

In a March 6 executive order, Trump established a "digital gold" BTC reserve, to be capitalised with any BTC seized by federal law enforcement and, if needed, through US purchases of the cryptocurrency on the open market.

在3月6日的行政命令中，特朗普建立了一個“數字黃金” BTC儲備，將通過聯邦執法部門抓住的任何BTC，並在需要時通過美國在公開市場上購買加密貨幣。

With the supply of BTC capped at 21 million coins, the administration wants the United States to secure a first-mover advantage as a major holder of an emerging store of value.

隨著BTC的供應限制為2100萬枚硬幣，政府希望美國作為新興商店的主要持有人獲得第一步優勢。

Around the world, governments are increasingly considering BTC as a reserve asset. In Brazil, Congressman Eros Biondini has advanced a proposal to require the central bank to accumulate BTC until it accounts for 5% of the country's reserves.

在世界範圍內，政府越來越多地將BTC視為儲備資產。在巴西，國會議員Eros Biondini提出了一項提議，要求中央銀行積累BTC，直到佔該國儲量的5％。

But one of the world's largest BTC holders is Gelephu Mindfulness City in Bhutan, which holds the cryptocurrency as a strategic reserve.

但是，世界上最大的BTC持有人之一是不丹的Gelephu正念城市，該城市將加密貨幣作為戰略儲備。

El Salvador president, Nayib Bukele continues to buy BTC as a strategic reserve, and legislators in Hong Kong have floated a proposal to add BTC to the city-state's official reserves.

薩爾瓦多總裁納伊布·布克勒（Nayib Bukele）繼續以戰略儲備為止，香港的立法者提出了將BTC添加到城市國家官方儲備中的提議。

China is also rumoured to be building a BTC reserve in stealth. And a recent Swiss popular initiative aims to require the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to include BTC in its holdings, though SNB President Martin Schlegel rejects the idea, citing concerns about the cryptocurrency's volatility, liquidity, and security.

有傳言稱，中國正在隱身建立BTC儲備。瑞士最近的一項流行倡議旨在要求瑞士國家銀行（SNB）將BTC納入其股份，儘管SNB總裁馬丁·施萊格爾（Martin Schlegel）拒絕了這一想法，理由是對加密貨幣的波動性，流動性和安全性感到擔憂。

However, the US government's decision to join the reserve-diversification party raises serious doubts about the future of its own currency's hegemony.

但是，美國政府加入儲備多元化黨的決定引起了人們對自己貨幣霸權的未來的嚴重懷疑。

If more countries or institutions decide to hold BTC instead of dollars, global demand for dollar reserves could decrease over the long term.

如果更多的國家或機構決定持有BTC而不是美元，那麼從長遠來看，全球對美元儲備的需求可能會減少。

Legitimising a rival store of value may shake confidence in the greenback, eroding America's global reserve-currency status and the advantages it confers. Without strong international demand for the dollar, the US could ultimately lose its "exorbitant privilege" to print and borrow at low interest rates.

合法化價值的競爭對手可能會激發人們對綠色的信心，從而侵蝕美國的全球儲備貨幣狀況及其所賦予的優勢。如果沒有強烈的國際對美元需求，美國最終可能會失去其以低利率打印和借用的“高昂特權”。

Alongside the BTC policy, the Trump administration is also fundamentally reshaping US trade policy. It has slapped 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports; increased tariffs on Chinese goods (driving the total average US tariff against that country to 39%); and threatened similar measures against European agriculture.

除BTC政策外，特朗普政府還從根本上重塑了美國貿易政策。它已對加拿大和墨西哥進口的25％關稅。對中國商品的關稅增加（將美國對該國的平均稅率提高到39％）；並威脅要對歐洲農業採取類似措施。

Because Canada and Mexico rely so heavily on trade with the US, tariffs reduce their exports and dollar inflows, weakening their currencies. By contrast, China's more diversified export base and controlled currency regime allows it to mitigate US tariff effects and support the renminbi.

由於加拿大和墨西哥非常依賴與美國的貿易，因此關稅減少了出口和美元流入，削弱了其貨幣。相比之下，中國更加多樣化的出口基礎和控制貨幣制度使其可以減輕美國關稅影響並支持人民幣。

Moreover, since the US relies so heavily on intermediate inputs from China, the tariffs will raise US production costs, driving up consumer prices and inflation, and eroding the dollar's appeal.

此外，由於美國非常依賴中國的中間投入，因此關稅將提高美國的生產成本，提高消費者價格和通貨膨脹，並侵蝕美元的吸引力。

In addition to reducing demand for US goods and the dollars to buy them, Trump's policies have introduced unpredictability and thus reduced confidence in US markets.

除了減少對美國商品的需求和購買美元的需求外，特朗普的政策還引入了不可預測性，從而降低了對美國市場的信心。

His threats are already pushing the European Union to consider greater currency diversification, and to look for alternative markets.

他的威脅已經在推動歐盟考慮更大的貨幣多元化，並尋找替代市場。

With fewer investors choosing to hold dollar-denominated assets, the dollar has begun to weaken.

隨著投資者選擇持有以美元計價的資產的減少，美元已經開始削弱。

Can the US really adopt BTC as a strategic reserve and pursue such trade policies without jeopardising the dollar's global standing?

美國能否真正採用BTC作為戰略儲備，並在不損害美元的全球地位的情況下追求此類貿易政策？

Countries commonly hold multiple reserve assets -- euros, yen, pound sterling, or gold -- in addition to the dollar. Yet BTC's unique, decentralised structure and finite supply set it apart from these traditional holdings.

除美元外，國家通常持有多個儲備金 - 歐元，日元，英鎊或黃金。然而，BTC獨特的，分散的結構和有限的供應使其與這些傳統持有量不同。

By formally endorsing it, the US could inadvertently accelerate a global shift away from dollar reserves.

通過正式認可它，美國可以無意中加速從美元儲備中加速全球轉變。

Trump and his team seem to be betting that other forces will kick in, owing to foreigners' outsize dependence on the US economy. The assumption is that foreign producers will accept lower prices to remain competitive, or that foreign currencies will depreciate to offset the effects of US tariffs, shifting the burden onto foreigners rather than American consumers and producers.

特朗普和他的團隊似乎敢打賭，由於外國人對美國經濟的依賴，其他部隊將啟動。假設是外國生產者將接受較低的價格以保持競爭力，或者外幣將貶值以抵消美國關稅的影響，將負擔轉移到外國人而不是美國消費者和生產者身上。

Such is the thinking behind the so-called "Mar-a-Lago Accord": the Trump administration's strategy of leveraging punitive tariffs to weaken the dollar, reduce US borrowing costs, and boost manufacturing -- all while preserving the dollar's global dominance.

這就是所謂的“瑪拉·拉戈協定”背後的想法：特朗普政府利用懲罰性關稅削弱美元，降低美國借貸成本並提高製造業的策略，同時又保留了美元的全球統治地位。

Unlike the Plaza Accord or Louvre Accord, in which major economies agreed to coordinate exchange rates, the US is coercing its major trading partners and foreign central banks into weakening their currencies relative to the dollar, ultimately favoring US economic interests.

與主要經濟體同意協調匯率的廣場協議或盧浮宮協議不同，美國正在強迫其主要的貿易夥伴和外國中央銀行相對於美元削弱其貨幣，最終有利於美國的經濟利益。

However, if these economic partners refuse to cooperate, the plan could unravel, and all of the accord's goals could be derailed.

但是，如果這些經濟合作夥伴拒絕合作，該計劃可能會瓦解，所有協議的目標都可以脫軌。

Much of this strategy comes from a November 2024 paper by the designated chair of Trump's Council of Economic Advisers, Stephen Miran, who has proposed that the US introduce tariffs in a measured way so that it can collect revenues from import duties without sparking prohibitively high prices for consumers.

該策略的大部分來自2024年11月的特朗普經濟顧問委員會主席斯蒂芬·米蘭（Stephen Miran）的論文，斯蒂芬·米蘭（Stephen Miran）提議以衡量的方式引入關稅，以便它可以從進口關稅中收取收入而不會激發消費者的高價。

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