美国大选期间如何交易比特币

随着 2024 年 11 月 5 日星期二美国总统选举临近，比特币市场正面临大幅波动。

As the United States approaches its presidential election on Tuesday, November 5, the Bitcoin market is bracing for significant volatility. In the lead-up to the election, Bitcoin surged to a high of $73,620 on Tuesday, likely reflecting investor optimism over a potential victory for former President Donald Trump. However, by Friday, the BTC price experienced a correction, dipping to $68,830 amid a more cautious, risk-off sentiment as the election looms.

随着 11 月 5 日星期二美国总统选举临近，比特币市场正面临大幅波动。在大选前夕，比特币周二飙升至 73,620 美元的高位，这可能反映出投资者对前总统唐纳德·特朗普可能获胜的乐观情绪。然而，到周五，随着选举的临近，由于避险情绪更加谨慎，比特币价格经历了调整，跌至 68,830 美元。

Krüger, an Argentine economist and renowned crypto analyst, shared his strategic framework on how to trade Bitcoin during the US election period via his X account. Krüger outlined scenarios based on possible election outcomes, highlighting that a Trump victory could propel Bitcoin to $90,000 by year-end with a 55% probability, while a win for Vice President Kamala might see Bitcoin settle around $65,000 with a 45% probability. He emphasized that timing will matter: “Expect the move to be fast if Trump wins. Markets rarely waits for laggards on binary events not largely front-run.”

阿根廷经济学家、著名加密货币分析师 Krüger 通过他的 X 账户分享了他在美国大选期间如何交易比特币的战略框架。 Krüger 概述了基于可能的选举结果的情景，强调特朗普的胜利可能会在年底前将比特币推至 90,000 美元，有 55% 的可能性，而副总统卡马拉的胜利可能会导致比特币以 45% 的可能性稳定在 65,000 美元左右。他强调，时机很重要：“如果特朗普获胜，预计行动会很快。市场很少会等待二元事件中的落后者，而在很大程度上不是领先者。”

Krüger also noted that the current Bitcoin price, which he anticipated to be in the $65k-68k range leading up to election night, had “overshot” in alignment with the probabilities favoring a Trump victory. He pointed out the uncertainty surrounding the election results, primarily hinging on the Pennsylvania vote count, which could delay the announcement of a clear winner.

Krüger 还指出，他预计选举之夜之前的比特币价格将在 65,000 美元至 68,000 美元之间，但该价格已经“超出”了特朗普获胜的可能性。他指出，选举结果存在不确定性，主要取决于宾夕法尼亚州的计票结果，这可能会推迟公布明显获胜者的时间。

“It largely depends on the Pennsylvania count, if it is lopsided or not. It could be as early as Tuesday evening EST, or days later if the count is very tight. The sooner we get clarity, the easier it gets,” Krüger stated.

“这很大程度上取决于宾夕法尼亚州的计票结果是否不平衡。最早可能会在美国东部时间周二晚上进行，如果计数非常紧张，也可能会在几天后进行。我们越早弄清楚，事情就会变得越容易，”克鲁格说。

Regarding market sentiment, Krüger expressed a bullish outlook on equities regardless of the election outcome, unless there is an unexpected “Blue sweep” where Democrats secure both the presidency and congressional majorities. He explained that “equities drag Bitcoin around.”

关于市场情绪，克鲁格表示，无论选举结果如何，都看好股市前景，除非出现意外的“蓝色横扫”，民主党获得总统职位和国会多数席位。他解释说，“股票拖累了比特币。”

In his personal investment strategy, Krüger revealed that he is positioned with long spots in Bitcoin and Nvidia, and plans to go long on Solana (SOL) if Trump wins. With this, Krüger is likely betting on a spot Solana Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) approval in the United States.

克鲁格在他的个人投资策略中透露，他持有比特币和英伟达的多头头寸，如果特朗普获胜，他计划做多 Solana (SOL)。由此，Krüger 可能押注于 Solana 交易所交易基金 (ETF) 现货在美国获得批准。

Krüger’s analysis suggests that the market has partially priced in a Trump victory, anticipating that a Trump administration could bolster the Bitcoin price. “Markets have partially priced a Trump victory in. We (the market, in aggregate) expect Trump to drive crypto prices higher due to increased regulatory clarity and implementation of pro-crypto policies,” the analyst wrote.

克鲁格的分析表明，市场已经部分消化了特朗普的胜利，预计特朗普政府可能会提振比特币价格。 “市场已经部分消化了特朗普的胜利。我们（市场总体）预计，由于监管透明度的提高和支持加密货币政策的实施，特朗普将推高加密货币价格。”该分析师写道。

Additionally, he expects that Trump’s focus on increased government spending would stimulate short-term economic growth, positively impacting equities—a sector closely linked to Bitcoin’s performance.

此外，他预计特朗普对增加政府支出的关注将刺激短期经济增长，对股市产生积极影响——股市是与比特币表现密切相关的行业。

Conversely, a Harris victory would likely represent a continuation of existing policies, barring a significant Democratic sweep. Krüger concluded: “Based on betting markets and various election forecasting models, Trump’s probabilities are in the 50% to 63% range. Ergo, it’s “safe” to assume a GOP victory is far from being fully priced in. Such a contested setup is common going into elections. That is why I do not expect ‘sell the news’.”

相反，除非民主党大获全胜，否则哈里斯的胜利可能代表现有政策的延续。克鲁格总结道：“根据博彩市场和各种选举预测模型，特朗普当选的概率在 50% 至 63% 范围内。因此，可以“安全”地假设共和党的胜利还远没有被完全消化。这种有争议的设置在选举中很常见。这就是为什么我不期望‘推销新闻’。”

At press time, BTC traded at $70,402.

截至发稿时，BTC 交易价格为 70,402 美元。