美國大選期間如何交易比特幣

隨著 2024 年 11 月 5 日星期二美國總統大選臨近，比特幣市場正面臨大幅波動。

As the United States approaches its presidential election on Tuesday, November 5, the Bitcoin market is bracing for significant volatility. In the lead-up to the election, Bitcoin surged to a high of $73,620 on Tuesday, likely reflecting investor optimism over a potential victory for former President Donald Trump. However, by Friday, the BTC price experienced a correction, dipping to $68,830 amid a more cautious, risk-off sentiment as the election looms.

隨著 11 月 5 日星期二美國總統大選臨近，比特幣市場正面臨大幅波動。在大選前夕，比特幣週二飆升至 73,620 美元的高位，這可能反映出投資者對前總統川普可能獲勝的樂觀情緒。然而，到週五，隨著選舉的臨近，由於避險情緒更加謹慎，比特幣價格經歷了調整，跌至 68,830 美元。

Krüger, an Argentine economist and renowned crypto analyst, shared his strategic framework on how to trade Bitcoin during the US election period via his X account. Krüger outlined scenarios based on possible election outcomes, highlighting that a Trump victory could propel Bitcoin to $90,000 by year-end with a 55% probability, while a win for Vice President Kamala might see Bitcoin settle around $65,000 with a 45% probability. He emphasized that timing will matter: “Expect the move to be fast if Trump wins. Markets rarely waits for laggards on binary events not largely front-run.”

阿根廷經濟學家、著名加密貨幣分析師 Krüger 透過他的 X 帳戶分享了他在美國大選期間如何交易比特幣的戰略框架。 Krüger 概述了基於可能的選舉結果的情景，強調川普的勝利可能會在年底前將比特幣推至90,000 美元，有55% 的可能性，而副總統卡馬拉的勝利可能會導致比特幣以45% 的可能性穩定在65,000 美元左右。他強調，時機很重要：「如果川普獲勝，預計行動會很快。市場很少會等待二元事件中的落後者，而在很大程度上不是領先者。

Krüger also noted that the current Bitcoin price, which he anticipated to be in the $65k-68k range leading up to election night, had “overshot” in alignment with the probabilities favoring a Trump victory. He pointed out the uncertainty surrounding the election results, primarily hinging on the Pennsylvania vote count, which could delay the announcement of a clear winner.

Krüger 還指出，他預計選舉之夜之前的比特幣價格將在 65,000 美元至 68,000 美元之間，但該價格已經「超出」了川普獲勝的可能性。他指出，選舉結果存在不確定性，主要取決於賓州的計票結果，這可能會推遲公佈明顯獲勝者的時間。

“It largely depends on the Pennsylvania count, if it is lopsided or not. It could be as early as Tuesday evening EST, or days later if the count is very tight. The sooner we get clarity, the easier it gets,” Krüger stated.

「這很大程度上取決於賓州的計票結果是否不平衡。最早可能會在美國東部時間週二晚上進行，如果計數非常緊張，也可能會在幾天後進行。我們越早弄清楚，事情就會變得越容易，」克魯格說。

Regarding market sentiment, Krüger expressed a bullish outlook on equities regardless of the election outcome, unless there is an unexpected “Blue sweep” where Democrats secure both the presidency and congressional majorities. He explained that “equities drag Bitcoin around.”

關於市場情緒，克魯格表示，無論選舉結果如何，都看好股市前景，除非出現意外的“藍色橫掃”，民主黨獲得總統職位和國會多數席位。他解釋說，“股票拖累了比特幣。”

In his personal investment strategy, Krüger revealed that he is positioned with long spots in Bitcoin and Nvidia, and plans to go long on Solana (SOL) if Trump wins. With this, Krüger is likely betting on a spot Solana Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) approval in the United States.

克魯格在他的個人投資策略中透露，他持有比特幣和英偉達的多頭頭寸，如果川普獲勝，他計劃做多 Solana (SOL)。由此，Krüger 可能押注於 Solana 交易所交易基金 (ETF) 現貨在美國獲得批准。

Krüger’s analysis suggests that the market has partially priced in a Trump victory, anticipating that a Trump administration could bolster the Bitcoin price. “Markets have partially priced a Trump victory in. We (the market, in aggregate) expect Trump to drive crypto prices higher due to increased regulatory clarity and implementation of pro-crypto policies,” the analyst wrote.

克魯格的分析表明，市場已經部分消化了川普的勝利，預計川普政府可能會提振比特幣價格。 「市場已經部分消化了川普的勝利。我們（市場總體）預計，由於監管透明度的提高和支持加密貨幣政策的實施，川普將推高加密貨幣價格。」分析師寫道。

Additionally, he expects that Trump’s focus on increased government spending would stimulate short-term economic growth, positively impacting equities—a sector closely linked to Bitcoin’s performance.

此外，他預期川普對增加政府支出的關注將刺激短期經濟成長，對股市產生正面影響——股市是與比特幣表現密切相關的產業。

Conversely, a Harris victory would likely represent a continuation of existing policies, barring a significant Democratic sweep. Krüger concluded: “Based on betting markets and various election forecasting models, Trump’s probabilities are in the 50% to 63% range. Ergo, it’s “safe” to assume a GOP victory is far from being fully priced in. Such a contested setup is common going into elections. That is why I do not expect ‘sell the news’.”

相反，除非民主黨大獲全勝，否則哈里斯的勝利可能代表現有政策的延續。克魯格總結：「根據博彩市場和各種選舉預測模型，川普當選的機率在 50% 至 63% 範圍內。因此，可以「安全」地假設共和黨的勝利還遠遠沒有被完全消化。這就是為什麼我不期望‘推銷新聞’。

At press time, BTC traded at $70,402.

截至發稿時，BTC 交易價格為 70,402 美元。