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在 Hamster Kombat (HMSTR) 大规模空投之后,开放网络 (TON) 的用户活动急剧下降。
Following the gigantic Hamster Kombat (HMSTR) airdrop, the Open Network (TON) has seen a steep decline in user activity. Judging by the numbers, TON was standing on the shoulders of its tap-to-earn giants for the entirety of 2024.
在 Hamster Kombat (HMSTR) 大规模空投之后,开放网络 (TON) 的用户活动急剧下降。从数字来看,2024 年一整年,TON 都站在点击赚钱巨头的肩膀上。
It was widely understood that there would be an inevitable decline in TON network usage following Telegram’s superstar airdrops from the likes of Hamster Kombat and Catizen. But the drop-off seems worse than many had anticipated.
人们普遍认为,继 Hamster Kombat 和 Catizen 等 Telegram 超级明星空投之后,TON 网络使用率将不可避免地下降。但下降幅度似乎比许多人预期的还要严重。
TonStat shows that since Sept. 30, the number of daily active wallets has tumbled from around 1.47 million to just 52,951 on Oct. 7. That’s roughly a 65% decrease.
TonStat 显示,自 9 月 30 日以来,每日活跃钱包数量已从约 147 万个锐减至 10 月 7 日的 52,951 个。下降幅度约为 65%。
Seemingly, players cashed out quickly and abandoned Telegram’s wallet altogether. This coincides with Hamster Kombat’s Sept. 26 airdrop, which was rolled out over a few days.
看起来,玩家们很快就兑现了,完全抛弃了 Telegram 的钱包。这恰逢《Hamster Kombat》于 9 月 26 日空投,该空投是在几天内推出的。
Showing even greater signs of apathy, the on-chain wallet activations per day have declined by 75%, from 284,246 at their peak on Sept. 19 to just 70,704.
链上钱包的每日激活量下降了 75%,从 9 月 19 日峰值的 284,246 下降到仅为 70,704,表现出更加冷漠的迹象。
These are critical figures as they represent the number of times users have engaged with smart contracts within the apps and games they are using.
这些都是关键数字,因为它们代表了用户在他们使用的应用程序和游戏中参与智能合约的次数。
This is notable as the Hamster Kombat snapshot was announced to take place on Sept. 20. With no more points left to farm for the airdrop, players quit.
值得注意的是,《仓鼠快打》快照将于 9 月 20 日举行。由于没有更多的积分可供空投农场,玩家退出了。
Adding even more cause for concern, development around TON appears to have also fallen off a cliff. As per Cryptometheus data, core and ecosystem developments are down massively, indicative of an even bigger problem facing TON: sustainability.
更令人担忧的是,围绕 TON 的发展似乎也陷入了悬崖。根据 Cryptometheus 的数据,核心和生态系统的发展大幅下降,这表明 TON 面临着一个更大的问题:可持续性。
Now that they have fallen out of favor with their tens of millions-strong communities, Telegram’s P2E tap-frenzy games may struggle to capture those levels of participation again.
现在,Telegram 的 P2E 点击狂热游戏已经失去了数千万社区的青睐,可能很难再次获得如此高的参与度。
As Alvin Kan, COO of Bitget Wallet, explained to CCN:
正如 Bitget Wallet 首席运营官 Alvin Kan 向 CCN 解释的那样:
“While airdrops can spark short-term interest, the decline in wallet activity shows the limitations of purely incentive-driven engagement. Users are more likely to return when there’s deeper value beyond one-time rewards.”
“虽然空投可以激发短期兴趣,但钱包活动的下降显示了纯粹激励驱动的参与的局限性。当一次性奖励之外还有更深层次的价值时,用户更有可能再次回来。”
The P2E model and its success were always going to be based on whether or not players “felt” like they had received a sufficient reward for their time/money investment. As evidenced by the backlash against the Hamster Kombat/Catizen airdrops, and the steep TON activity decline, disenfranchised players who were “in it for the money” are long gone.
P2E 模式及其成功始终取决于玩家是否“感觉”他们的时间/金钱投入获得了足够的回报。正如对 Hamster Kombat/Catizen 空投的强烈反对以及 TON 活动急剧下降所证明的那样,那些“为了钱而参与其中”的被剥夺权利的玩家早已不复存在。
Kan adds:
可以添加:
“The airdrop mishaps have dampened trust, but future efforts should focus on creating smoother experiences while also expanding beyond short-term incentives”
“空投事故削弱了信任,但未来的努力应该集中于创造更顺畅的体验,同时也超越短期激励”
Arguably, TON’s rampant 2024 successes weren’t driven by innovation but by novel addictive, mobile-based crypto games that acted as an on/off-ramp for fresh capital. This is on an otherwise inactive and uneventful blockchain network that boasts very little in terms of utility.
可以说,TON 在 2024 年取得的巨大成功并不是由创新驱动的,而是由新颖的、令人上瘾的、基于移动设备的加密游戏推动的,这些游戏充当了新资本的入口/出口。这是在一个不活跃且平淡无奇的区块链网络上,该网络在实用性方面几乎没有什么可夸耀的。
Beyond the Airdrops
超越空投
That’s not to say that TON isn’t working to innovate or develop utility on its network. Of course, any blockchain ecosystem aims to become self-sustainable through its myriad offerings.
这并不是说 TON 没有致力于创新或开发其网络的实用性。当然,任何区块链生态系统都旨在通过其无数的产品实现自我可持续发展。
Kan explains that TON “needs” to develop more “enduring financial ecosystems” within Telegram and give its users practical use cases. This includes building on social interactions with “tokenized communities or peer-to-peer (P2P) services.”
Kan 解释说,TON“需要”在 Telegram 内开发更多“持久的金融生态系统”,并为其用户提供实际用例。这包括建立与“代币化社区或点对点(P2P)服务”的社交互动。
According to Kan, these layers of engagement keep users active and coming back for more.
Kan 表示,这些层次的参与可以让用户保持活跃并回访更多。
But, with declining user and developer activity, TON will struggle to build out the decentralized finance (DeFi), exchange (DEX), autonomous organization (DAO), games, and other Web3 services it needs to attract and retain users.
但是,随着用户和开发者活动的减少,TON 将难以构建吸引和留住用户所需的去中心化金融 (DeFi)、交易所 (DEX)、自治组织 (DAO)、游戏和其他 Web3 服务。
Looking to the future, Kan thinks TON can make great strides in other areas, telling CCN:
展望未来,Kan 认为 TON 可以在其他领域取得长足进步,他告诉 CCN:
“The long-term potential for TON lies in integrating financial services within Telegram, much like WeChat Pay and Alipay, which create seamless interactions between communication and finance.”
“TON 的长期潜力在于将金融服务整合到 Telegram 中,就像微信支付和支付宝一样,在通信和金融之间建立无缝交互。”
It’s a little paradoxical, though not impossible. Again, Telegram is used by almost 1 billion people. As shown by the record-breaking numbers of people that flocked to Hamster Kombat, it clearly has the potential to deliver crypto and Web3 to the masses.
这有点自相矛盾,但并非不可能。同样,Telegram 有近 10 亿人使用。正如涌入 Hamster Kombat 的破纪录人数所表明的那样,它显然有潜力向大众提供加密货币和 Web3。
That said, if its biggest draws end up being its biggest failures, its reputation and user activity may have already entered into an unfortunate doom spiral.
也就是说,如果它最大的吸引力最终成为最大的失败,那么它的声誉和用户活动可能已经进入了不幸的厄运螺旋。
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