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在 Hamster Kombat (HMSTR) 大規模空投之後,開放網路 (TON) 的用戶活動急劇下降。
Following the gigantic Hamster Kombat (HMSTR) airdrop, the Open Network (TON) has seen a steep decline in user activity. Judging by the numbers, TON was standing on the shoulders of its tap-to-earn giants for the entirety of 2024.
在 Hamster Kombat (HMSTR) 大規模空投之後,開放網路 (TON) 的用戶活動急劇下降。從數據來看,2024 年一整年,TON 都站在點擊賺錢巨頭的肩膀上。
It was widely understood that there would be an inevitable decline in TON network usage following Telegram’s superstar airdrops from the likes of Hamster Kombat and Catizen. But the drop-off seems worse than many had anticipated.
人們普遍認為,繼 Hamster Kombat 和 Catizen 等 Telegram 超級明星空投之後,TON 網路使用率將不可避免地下降。但下降幅度似乎比許多人預期的還要嚴重。
TonStat shows that since Sept. 30, the number of daily active wallets has tumbled from around 1.47 million to just 52,951 on Oct. 7. That’s roughly a 65% decrease.
TonStat 顯示,自 9 月 30 日以來,每日活躍錢包數量已從約 147 萬個銳減至 10 月 7 日的 52,951 個。
Seemingly, players cashed out quickly and abandoned Telegram’s wallet altogether. This coincides with Hamster Kombat’s Sept. 26 airdrop, which was rolled out over a few days.
看起來,玩家們很快就兌現了,完全拋棄了 Telegram 的錢包。這恰逢《Hamster Kombat》於 9 月 26 日空投,該空投是在幾天內推出的。
Showing even greater signs of apathy, the on-chain wallet activations per day have declined by 75%, from 284,246 at their peak on Sept. 19 to just 70,704.
鏈上錢包的每日啟動量下降了 75%,從 9 月 19 日高峰的 284,246 下降到僅為 70,704,表現出更冷漠的跡象。
These are critical figures as they represent the number of times users have engaged with smart contracts within the apps and games they are using.
這些都是關鍵數字,因為它們代表了用戶在他們使用的應用程式和遊戲中參與智能合約的次數。
This is notable as the Hamster Kombat snapshot was announced to take place on Sept. 20. With no more points left to farm for the airdrop, players quit.
值得注意的是,《倉鼠快打》快照將於 9 月 20 日舉行。
Adding even more cause for concern, development around TON appears to have also fallen off a cliff. As per Cryptometheus data, core and ecosystem developments are down massively, indicative of an even bigger problem facing TON: sustainability.
更令人擔憂的是,圍繞 TON 的發展似乎也陷入了懸崖。根據 Cryptometheus 的數據,核心和生態系統的發展大幅下降,這表明 TON 面臨一個更大的問題:永續性。
Now that they have fallen out of favor with their tens of millions-strong communities, Telegram’s P2E tap-frenzy games may struggle to capture those levels of participation again.
現在,Telegram 的 P2E 點擊狂熱遊戲已經失去了數千萬社群的青睞,可能很難再次獲得如此高的參與度。
As Alvin Kan, COO of Bitget Wallet, explained to CCN:
正如 Bitget Wallet 營運長 Alvin Kan 向 CCN 解釋的那樣:
“While airdrops can spark short-term interest, the decline in wallet activity shows the limitations of purely incentive-driven engagement. Users are more likely to return when there’s deeper value beyond one-time rewards.”
「雖然空投可以激發短期興趣,但錢包活動的下降顯示了純粹激勵驅動的參與的局限性。當一次性獎勵之外還有更深層的價值時,用戶更有可能再次回來。
The P2E model and its success were always going to be based on whether or not players “felt” like they had received a sufficient reward for their time/money investment. As evidenced by the backlash against the Hamster Kombat/Catizen airdrops, and the steep TON activity decline, disenfranchised players who were “in it for the money” are long gone.
P2E 模式及其成功始終取決於玩家是否「感覺」他們的時間/金錢投入獲得了足夠的回報。正如對 Hamster Kombat/Catizen 空投的強烈反對以及 TON 活動急劇下降所證明的那樣,那些「為了錢而參與其中」的被剝奪權利的玩家早已不復存在。
Kan adds:
可以添加:
“The airdrop mishaps have dampened trust, but future efforts should focus on creating smoother experiences while also expanding beyond short-term incentives”
「空投事故削弱了信任,但未來的努力應該集中於創造更順暢的體驗,同時也超越短期激勵」
Arguably, TON’s rampant 2024 successes weren’t driven by innovation but by novel addictive, mobile-based crypto games that acted as an on/off-ramp for fresh capital. This is on an otherwise inactive and uneventful blockchain network that boasts very little in terms of utility.
可以說,TON 在 2024 年取得的巨大成功並不是由創新驅動的,而是由新穎的、令人上癮的、基於行動裝置的加密遊戲推動的,這些遊戲充當了新資本的入口/出口。這是在一個不活躍且平淡無奇的區塊鏈網路上,該網路在實用性方面幾乎沒有什麼可誇耀的。
Beyond the Airdrops
超越空投
That’s not to say that TON isn’t working to innovate or develop utility on its network. Of course, any blockchain ecosystem aims to become self-sustainable through its myriad offerings.
這並不是說 TON 沒有致力於創新或開發其網路的實用性。當然,任何區塊鏈生態系統都旨在透過其無數的產品實現自我永續發展。
Kan explains that TON “needs” to develop more “enduring financial ecosystems” within Telegram and give its users practical use cases. This includes building on social interactions with “tokenized communities or peer-to-peer (P2P) services.”
Kan 解釋說,TON“需要”在 Telegram 內開發更多“持久的金融生態系統”,並為其用戶提供實際用例。這包括建立與「代幣化社區或點對點(P2P)服務」的社交互動。
According to Kan, these layers of engagement keep users active and coming back for more.
Kan 表示,這些層次的參與可以讓用戶保持活躍並回訪更多。
But, with declining user and developer activity, TON will struggle to build out the decentralized finance (DeFi), exchange (DEX), autonomous organization (DAO), games, and other Web3 services it needs to attract and retain users.
但是,隨著用戶和開發者活動的減少,TON 將難以建立吸引和留住用戶所需的去中心化金融 (DeFi)、交易所 (DEX)、自治組織 (DAO)、遊戲和其他 Web3 服務。
Looking to the future, Kan thinks TON can make great strides in other areas, telling CCN:
展望未來,Kan 認為 TON 可以在其他領域取得長足進步,他告訴 CCN:
“The long-term potential for TON lies in integrating financial services within Telegram, much like WeChat Pay and Alipay, which create seamless interactions between communication and finance.”
“TON 的長期潛力在於將金融服務整合到 Telegram 中,就像微信支付和支付寶一樣,在通訊和金融之間建立無縫互動。”
It’s a little paradoxical, though not impossible. Again, Telegram is used by almost 1 billion people. As shown by the record-breaking numbers of people that flocked to Hamster Kombat, it clearly has the potential to deliver crypto and Web3 to the masses.
這有點自相矛盾,但並非不可能。同樣,Telegram 有近 10 億人使用。正如湧入 Hamster Kombat 的破紀錄人數所表明的那樣,它顯然有潛力向大眾提供加密貨幣和 Web3。
That said, if its biggest draws end up being its biggest failures, its reputation and user activity may have already entered into an unfortunate doom spiral.
也就是說,如果它最大的吸引力最終成為最大的失敗,那麼它的聲譽和用戶活動可能已經進入了不幸的厄運螺旋。
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