我们今年圣诞节购买的 3 种免税股息

为拉斯维加斯谷内华达水区提供资金的市政债券本来可以成为一个很好的圣诞礼物。他们的收益率为 5%，并从山姆大叔那里获得了税务大厅通行证。

Ho ho ho, fellow contrarian! Did the jolly old elf leave you any tax-free dividends under the tree this morning?

嗬嗬嗬，逆行者！今天早上那个快乐的老精灵有没有在树下给你留下免税股息？

The municipal bonds that are used to fund the Las Vegas Valley Nevada Water District would have made a great stocking stuffer. They yield 5% and get a tax hall pass from Uncle Sam. Which means on a tax equivalent basis they actually pay 6% or 7% or more, depending on your income tax bracket.

用于资助拉斯维加斯谷内华达水区的市政债券本来可以成为很好的圣诞礼物。他们的收益率为 5%，并从山姆大叔那里获得了税务大厅通行证。这意味着在等值税额的基础上，他们实际上支付 6% 或 7% 或更多，具体取决于您的所得税等级。

Vegas is booming. And the town is in the middle of a hot desert that is increasingly arid, so this muni is rock solid.

维加斯正在蓬勃发展。这座城镇位于炎热的沙漠之中，而且越来越干旱，所以这座市政设施坚如磐石。

Five percent, tax free. Why’d you forget this, Santa?

百分之五，免税。你为什么忘了这个，圣诞老人？

Well fear not, my fellow “naughty lister.” I have a backdoor way to buy the bonds that Santa forgot to stuff. Actually, even better because we can type in a simple ticker and boost that yield to a tax-free 7.9%.

好吧，别害怕，我的“顽皮的列表者”。我有一个后门方法可以购买圣诞老人忘记塞进去的债券。事实上，甚至更好，因为我们可以输入一个简单的股票代码，并将免税收益率提高到 7.9%。

Plus, the Federal Reserve’s fresh hawkish stance should support this bond fund’s price. As I write it trades at an 8% discount to the value of its Vegas munis and other safe issues in its portfolio. Which means we are paying 92 cents for a dollar of this fund.

此外，美联储新的鹰派立场应该会支撑该债券基金的价格。正如我所写，它的交易价格比其拉斯维加斯市政债券和其投资组合中其他安全债券的价值折价 8%。这意味着我们要为该基金的 1 美元支付 92 美分。

We’ll get to specifics in a minute. But first, let’s talk about the Fed, which cut interest rates for a third consecutive meeting last week. Ten-year rates are now, ironically, 90 basis points higher than when the easing cycle began.

我们稍后会详细介绍。但首先我们来谈谈美联储，上周美联储连续第三次降息。讽刺的是，十年期利率现在比宽松周期开始时高了 90 个基点。

Ten-Year Treasury Yield Chart

十年期国债收益率图表

It’s true. The Fed eased and long rates went higher, not lower. When the Fed first cut rates in September, the 10-year Treasury yielded just 3.6%. Three “eases” later, the longer-dated yield ran up to 4.5%.

这是真的。美联储放松了货币政策，长期利率上升而不是下降。当美联储9月份首次降息时，10年期国债收益率仅为3.6%。三次“宽松”后，较长期收益率升至4.5%。

“Caution! Potential inflation ahead,” the bond market screamed as the Fed lowered its key rate for, it seems, no good reason. The economy is fine. There are plenty of jobs. The market is not hurting for liquidity. Bonds, which trade opposite interest rates, have dropped into the holiday bargain bin as a result of these unnecessary rate cuts.

“警告！潜在的通胀即将到来”，债券市场尖叫起来，美联储似乎没有充分的理由降低了关键利率。经济很好。有很多工作机会。市场的流动性并未受到损害。由于这些不必要的降息，以相反利率交易的债券已落入假日讨价还价箱。

Jay Powell finally took the hint and delivered a hawkish statement alongside the cut. That’s a long overdue responsible move from the supposed adult in the room.

杰伊·鲍威尔最终领会了这一暗示，并在降息的同时发表了鹰派声明。这是房间里所谓的成年人早就应该采取的负责任的举动。

Powell’s parental guidance may very well set a ceiling on the 10-year yield. It has formidable resistance just overhead. That sure would surprise Wall Street, wouldn’t it? Just as long rates rose when the Fed began to ease, it would only be fitting if the 10-year topped when the Fed paused.

鲍威尔的父母指导很可能为10年期国债收益率设定上限。它的头顶上有强大的阻力。这肯定会让华尔街感到惊讶，不是吗？正如美联储开始宽松时长期利率上升一样，只有在美联储暂停宽松时10年期利率见顶才合适。

Bonds are despised right now. They have flopped since September. We, as card carrying contrarians, are buying this dip.

债券现在受到鄙视。自九月以来，他们一直在失败。作为持牌逆向投资者，我们正在逢低买入。

This is the trickiest part of being a contrarian investor. It took me years (really, decades) to train myself to buy assets when (and only when!) they are hated.

这是作为逆向投资者最棘手的部分。我花了几年（实际上是几十年）来训练自己在资产被讨厌时（而且只有在资产被讨厌时才购买）。

Let’s watch bonds rally and surprise everyone except us. Bond prices, remember, have two drivers:

让我们看看债券的反弹，让除了我们之外的所有人都感到惊讶。请记住，债券价格有两个驱动因素：

A hawkish Fed—or at least a halfway responsible one—helps with the duration risk because it puts a lid on long rates. Meanwhile credit risk is not a problem now with the economy still going strong.

鹰派的美联储——或者至少是半负责任的美联储——有助于应对久期风险，因为它限制了长期利率。与此同时，由于经济仍然强劲，信用风险现在已不再是问题。

To never worry about credit risk, we can buy US Treasuries. SPDR Portfolio Long-Term Treasury ETF (NYSE:SPTL) is a convenient vehicle that yields 4.8% today. SPTL will also enjoy price appreciation if 10-year rates relax from here.

为了永远不用担心信用风险，我们可以购买美国国债。 SPDR 投资组合长期国债 ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SPTL）是一种便捷的工具，目前的收益率为 4.8%。如果 10 年期利率从现在开始放宽，SPTL 也将享受价格升值。

Municipal “muni” bonds are another safe option. Muni default rates have been in the basement, below 0.1% since 2013. The biggest ETF is iShares National Muni Bond ETF (NYSE:MUB), which holds more than 5,600 individual muni issues.

市政“市政”债券是另一个安全的选择。自 2013 年以来，市政债券违约率一直处于较低水平，低于 0.1%。最大的 ETF 是 iShares National Muni Bond ETF (NYSE:MUB)，持有超过 5,600 个单独的市政债券。

One-click MUB is convenient and diversified, though income investors pay for it by sacrificing yields. MUB pays just 3.1%. Muni dividends are tax free from Uncle Sam, though, giving MUB a boost (making it more than a noob!) The fund’s tax-equivalent yield can be up to 5.3%, depending on the holder’s tax bracket.

一键式 MUB 既方便又多元化，尽管收益投资者需要牺牲收益率来为此付出代价。 MUB 只需支付 3.1%。不过，山姆大叔的市政股息是免税的，这给 MUB 带来了提振（使其不再是菜鸟！）该基金的税收等值收益率最高可达 5.3%，具体取决于持有人的税级。

3 Tax-Free Dividends We Are Buying

我们购买的 3 种免税股息

We contrarians prefer closed-end funds (CEFs). They pay more—up to 7.9%, and this is before we consider their tax advantages. For top bracket earners, this can mean a 13.3% yearly payout!

我们逆向投资者更喜欢封闭式基金（CEF）。他们支付的税率更高，高达 7.9%，而且这是在我们考虑他们的税收优惠之前的情况。对于收入最高的人来说，这可能意味着 13.3% 的年支出！

Tax Free Dividends

免税股息

Fund Discount to NAV Tax-Free Yield

基金资产净值免税收益率折扣

Nuveen Municipal High Income Opportunity Fund (NYSE:NMZ) 4% 7.9%

努文市政高收入机会基金（纽约证券交易所代码：NMZ） 4% 7.9%

Nuveen Municipal Value Fund Inc (NYSE:NUV) 5% 7.5%

Nuveen 市政价值基金公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：NUV） 5% 7.5% 。

Nuveen Short Duration Premium Income Fund (NYSE:NYS) 1

Nuveen 短期保费收入基金（纽约证券交易所代码：NYS）1