随着股票和债券市场动荡继续

随着股票和债券市场动荡的持续，瑞士法郎和黄金已成为一些最好的避风势资产。周五，美元/CHF汇率跌至0.8100

The Swiss franc and gold have become some of the best safe-haven assets as the stock and bond market turmoil continues.

随着股票和债券市场动荡的持续，瑞士法郎和黄金已成为一些最好的避风势资产。

The USD/CHF exchange rate tumbled to 0.8100 on Friday, 12% below its highest point in 2024. This performance has made the Swiss franc one of the best-performing currencies this year.

上周五，美元/CHF汇率跌至0.8100，比2024年的最高点低12％。这一表现使瑞士法郎成为今年表现最好的货币之一。

The Swiss franc’s performance was the polar opposite of the U.S. dollar’s, which tumbled to 2018 lows. Its performance is primarily due to Switzerland’s neutrality and banking secrecy laws, which have always made it a haven.

瑞士法郎的表现与美元相反，该公司跌至2018年的低点。它的表现主要归功于瑞士的中立性和银行保密法，这一直使其成为避风港。

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is a major investor in U.S. markets and holds substantial positions in many top American companies — including household names like Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet. It is also the tenth-biggest holder of U.S. Treasury bonds.

瑞士国家银行（SNB）是美国市场上的主要投资者，在许多美国顶级公司（包括苹果，微软，亚马逊和Alphabet）等许多顶级公司中占据了重要职位。它也是美国财政债券的第十大持有人。

Gold has also become a top haven, with its price soaring to a record high of $3,240. It has jumped by 125% from its pandemic lows and 25% this year alone.

黄金也已成为避风港，其价格飙升至创纪录的3,240美元。仅今年的大流行低年度，它的大流行低潮就增长了125％。

In contrast, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices have retreated by double digits.

相比之下，标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克100指数已通过两位数撤退。

Gold and Swiss franc are outpacing Bitcoin

黄金和瑞士法郎超过比特币

Gold and the Swiss franc have beaten Bitcoin (BTC) safe havens as the trade war escalates. Bitcoin, often seen as the digital version of gold, has slipped from the year-to-date high of $109,300 to $83,000.

随着贸易战的升级，黄金和瑞士法郎击败了比特币（BTC）的避风港。比特币通常被视为黄金的数字版本，已从$ 109,300的年度高点降至83,000美元。

Bitcoin is often regarded as a haven because of its limited supply of 21 million coins and the elevated demand from Wall Street investors.

比特币通常被视为避风港，因为其供应有限的2100万枚硬币以及华尔街投资者的需求提高。

They have also done better than U.S. bonds, which have come under pressure in the past few weeks. On Friday, the benchmark ten-year yield rose to 4.50%, while the 30-year and 2-year yields rose to 4.85% and 3.97%, respectively.

他们的表现也比美国债券要好，在过去的几周中，这些债券受到压力。星期五，基准十年收益率上升至4.50％，而30年和2年的收益率分别上升至4.85％和3.97％。

Global risks have continued rising this week, with analysts predicting a recession will happen this year. Polymarket data places the odds of a recession this year at 60%, while BlackRock’s Larry Fink believes that the U.S. is already in one.

本周全球风险持续上升，分析师预测，今年将会发生衰退。 Polymarket数据今年将经济衰退的几率置于60％，而BlackRock的Larry Fink认为美国已经属于美国。

Mark Zandi, Moody’s chief economist, has boosted his recession odds to 60%, citing the hefty tariffs between the U.S. and China. He also noted the base U.S. tariff of 10% on all imported goods and the 25% levy on steel, aluminum, and vehicles.

穆迪（Moody）的首席经济学家马克·赞迪（Mark Zandi）以美国和中国之间的高额关税提高了他的衰退赔率60％。他还指出，所有进口商品的基本关税率为10％，钢，铝和车辆的25％征税。

Similarly, economists at companies like Morgan Stanley, BNP Paribas, and UBS have warned that the U.S. GDP will drop this year, and the jobless rate will rise to 5%.

同样，摩根士丹利，法国巴黎银行和瑞银等公司的经济学家也警告说，美国GDP今年将下降，失业率将上升到5％。