隨著股票和債券市場動盪繼續

隨著股票和債券市場動蕩的持續，瑞士法郎和黃金已成為一些最好的避風勢資產。週五，美元/CHF匯率跌至0.8100

The Swiss franc and gold have become some of the best safe-haven assets as the stock and bond market turmoil continues.

隨著股票和債券市場動蕩的持續，瑞士法郎和黃金已成為一些最好的避風勢資產。

The USD/CHF exchange rate tumbled to 0.8100 on Friday, 12% below its highest point in 2024. This performance has made the Swiss franc one of the best-performing currencies this year.

上週五，美元/CHF匯率跌至0.8100，比2024年的最高點低12％。這一表現使瑞士法郎成為今年表現最好的貨幣之一。

The Swiss franc’s performance was the polar opposite of the U.S. dollar’s, which tumbled to 2018 lows. Its performance is primarily due to Switzerland’s neutrality and banking secrecy laws, which have always made it a haven.

瑞士法郎的表現與美元相反，該公司跌至2018年的低點。它的表現主要歸功於瑞士的中立性和銀行保密法，這一直使其成為避風港。

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is a major investor in U.S. markets and holds substantial positions in many top American companies — including household names like Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet. It is also the tenth-biggest holder of U.S. Treasury bonds.

瑞士國家銀行（SNB）是美國市場上的主要投資者，在許多美國頂級公司（包括蘋果，微軟，亞馬遜和Alphabet）等許多頂級公司中佔據了重要職位。它也是美國財政債券的第十大持有人。

Gold has also become a top haven, with its price soaring to a record high of $3,240. It has jumped by 125% from its pandemic lows and 25% this year alone.

黃金也已成為避風港，其價格飆升至創紀錄的3,240美元。僅今年的大流行低年度，它的大流行低潮就增長了125％。

In contrast, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices have retreated by double digits.

相比之下，標準普爾500指數和納斯達克100指數已通過兩位數撤退。

Gold and Swiss franc are outpacing Bitcoin

黃金和瑞士法郎超過比特幣

Gold and the Swiss franc have beaten Bitcoin (BTC) safe havens as the trade war escalates. Bitcoin, often seen as the digital version of gold, has slipped from the year-to-date high of $109,300 to $83,000.

隨著貿易戰的升級，黃金和瑞士法郎擊敗了比特幣（BTC）的避風港。比特幣通常被視為黃金的數字版本，已從$ 109,300的年度高點降至83,000美元。

Bitcoin is often regarded as a haven because of its limited supply of 21 million coins and the elevated demand from Wall Street investors.

比特幣通常被視為避風港，因為其供應有限的2100萬枚硬幣以及華爾街投資者的需求提高。

They have also done better than U.S. bonds, which have come under pressure in the past few weeks. On Friday, the benchmark ten-year yield rose to 4.50%, while the 30-year and 2-year yields rose to 4.85% and 3.97%, respectively.

他們的表現也比美國債券要好，在過去的幾周中，這些債券受到壓力。星期五，基準十年收益率上升至4.50％，而30年和2年的收益率分別上升至4.85％和3.97％。

Global risks have continued rising this week, with analysts predicting a recession will happen this year. Polymarket data places the odds of a recession this year at 60%, while BlackRock’s Larry Fink believes that the U.S. is already in one.

本周全球風險持續上升，分析師預測，今年將會發生衰退。 Polymarket數據今年將經濟衰退的機率置於60％，而BlackRock的Larry Fink認為美國已經屬於美國。

Mark Zandi, Moody’s chief economist, has boosted his recession odds to 60%, citing the hefty tariffs between the U.S. and China. He also noted the base U.S. tariff of 10% on all imported goods and the 25% levy on steel, aluminum, and vehicles.

穆迪（Moody）的首席經濟學家馬克·贊迪（Mark Zandi）以美國和中國之間的高額關稅提高了他的衰退賠率60％。他還指出，所有進口商品的基本關稅率為10％，鋼，鋁和車輛的25％徵稅。

Similarly, economists at companies like Morgan Stanley, BNP Paribas, and UBS have warned that the U.S. GDP will drop this year, and the jobless rate will rise to 5%.

同樣，摩根士丹利，法國巴黎銀行和瑞銀等公司的經濟學家也警告說，美國GDP今年將下降，失業率將上升到5％。