史蒂文·埃里希（Steven Ehrlich）

2025年，特朗普政府向加密货币行业介绍了一系列“礼物”。

The Trump administration presented a series of "gifts" to the cryptocurrency industry in 2025.

特朗普政府在2025年向加密货币行业介绍了一系列“礼物”。

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has suspended enforcement actions and investigations against major cryptocurrency exchanges and companies such as Coinbase, Gemini, Uniswap, OpenSea, ConsenSys, etc. The White House issued an executive order to promote U.S. leadership in the digital asset industry and expressed its intention to build a Bitcoin reserve.

美国证券交易委员会（SEC）暂停了针对主要的加密货币交易所的执法行动和调查，以及Coinbase，Gemini，Gemini，Uniswap，Opensea，Consensys等公司等公司。白宫发布了一项行政命令，发出了一项行政命令，以促进美国在数字资产行业的领导才能，并表示打算建立比特币储备。

However, these moves have not been enough to stem the recent decline in Bitcoin prices and overall negative sentiment in the crypto industry. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is currently priced at $84,000, down 18% since Donald Trump’s inauguration and nearly 23% from its all-time high, while the total cryptocurrency market capitalization has fallen 21%.

但是，这些举动还不足以阻止比特币价格最近下降和加密行业的总体负面情绪。在撰写本文时，比特币目前的价格为84,000美元，自唐纳德·特朗普就职典礼以来下跌了18％，比历史最高高点近23％，而总加密货币市值下降了21％。

Kavita Gupta, founder and general partner of Delta Blockchain Fund, said: "It feels like all the good news in the crypto space has happened, and the positive developments in the industry seem to be just due to the whim of senior politicians, lacking due process and due diligence... The situation may change at any time, and the sustainability is questionable."

Delta区块链基金的创始人兼普通合伙人Kavita Gupta表示：“感觉就像是加密货币空间中的所有好消息发生了，行业的积极发展似乎只是由于高级政治家的异想天开，缺乏正当程序和尽职调查……这种情况可能随时改变，可持续性可能会发生问题。”

The three major forces driving the market down right now are likely to push it even lower before it regains its footing and begins to move back up. In fact, the crypto industry may have to wait until 2026 before it sees sustained bullish momentum again.

目前推动市场的三大主要力量可能会在恢复其立足点之前将其降低，并开始恢复。实际上，加密行业可能必须等到2026年才能看到持续的看涨势头。

Internal backlash

内部反弹

There are many reasons to explain the recent decline, starting with the behavior of cryptocurrency participants themselves.

从加密货币参与者本身的行为开始，有很多理由来解释最近的下降。

For example, the industry has been marred by multiple memecoin scandals, such as $MELANIA and, later, $LIBRA, which even dragged Argentinian President Javier Milley into the scandal. Now, memecoin issuance and trading activity are declining across the industry, raising questions about their long-term sustainability. For example, daily issuance of new tokens reached a local peak of 66,471 on January 24, just six days after $TRUMP went live. On February 27, the latest full data day available, that number fell to 27,741, a 58% drop.

例如，该行业被多个Memecoin丑闻（例如$ Melania）和后来的$ libra损害，甚至将阿根廷总统贾维尔·米利（Javier Milley）拖入了丑闻。现在，在整个行业中，Memecoin发行和交易活动都在下降，引发了有关其长期可持续性的疑问。例如，每日发行新令牌的当地峰值在1月24日达到66,471，$特朗普上线后仅六天。 2月27日，即最新的完整数据日，该数字降至27,741，下降了58％。

Brian Rudick, GSR’s head of research, said of the data: “People used to think that meme coins were the fairest and most efficient form of speculation in crypto, but $LIBRA shows that this is not the case. Now you’re seeing a massive reduction in on-chain volume, [and while] meme coins are bearing the brunt of it, this is dragging down the entire crypto space.”

GSR研究负责人布莱恩·鲁迪克（Brian Rudick）谈到数据：“人们曾经认为模因硬币是加密货币中最公平，最有效的投机形式，但$ librea表明并非如此。现在，您正在看到链上的体积大大减少，而模因硬币则首当其冲，这在整个加密货币空间中都拖延了。”

In addition, the $1.5 billion hack of Bybit by North Korean hackers (the largest theft in cryptocurrency history) has once again raised questions about whether it is safe to put money into cryptocurrencies. Gupta pointed out: "These hacks have made the outside world think that even after 10 years of development, this industry has not really matured."

此外，朝鲜黑客（加密货币历史上最大的盗窃案）耗资15亿美元的bybit攻击，再次提出了有关是否可以安全地将钱投入加密货币的问题。古普塔指出：“这些黑客使外界认为，即使经过10年的发展，这个行业也没有真正成熟。”

External headwinds

外部逆风

All of this negative sentiment within the industry is being amplified by a reduction in risk appetite among investors more broadly.

通过更广泛的投资者之间的风险食欲降低，该行业内的所有负面情绪都在放大。

Typically, a new administration boosts consumer confidence, and business leaders initially welcomed Trump's election because of his pro-business mindset. However, new data shows consumer confidence is weakening, likely due to Trump's threats to impose 25% tariffs on trading partners such as China, Canada, Mexico and the European Union.

通常，新的政府增强了消费者的信心，而业务领导者最初由于他的亲企业心态而欢迎特朗普的选举。但是，新数据表明，消费者的信心正在减弱，这可能是由于特朗普威胁要对中国，加拿大，墨西哥和欧盟等贸易伙伴征收25％的关税。

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index, a nonprofit think tank, fell for the third consecutive month in February, hitting its lowest level since August 2021.

会议委员会的消费者信心指数是一个非营利性智囊团，在2月连续第三个月下降，这是自2021年8月以来的最低水平。

The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey also showed a sharp drop in consumer confidence. The report stated: "Consumer sentiment continued its downward trend from earlier in the month, falling nearly 10% from January. This decline was widespread across age, income and wealth groups."

密歇根大学的消费者情绪调查还显示，消费者的信心急剧下降。报告指出：“消费者的情绪从本月初开始继续下降趋势，比一月下降了近10％。在年龄，收入和财富群体中，这种下降广泛。”

The report also mentioned: "Expectations for inflation over the next year rose to 4.3% from 3.3%, the highest level since November 2023, and has increased abnormally sharply for two consecutive months. The current reading is well above the range of 2.3%-3.0% in the two years before the epidemic."

该报告还提到：“明年对通货膨胀的期望从3.3％，这是2023年11月以来的最高水平，并且连续两个月急剧增加。目前的读数远高于该流行病前两年的2.3％-3.0％。”

“According to the latest data from the CME Fedwatch tool, the market is pricing in two rate cuts this year. But if those expectations were to completely evaporate due to tariffs, traditional markets could fall more than cryptocurrencies,” Rudick noted.

“根据CME FedWatch工具的最新数据，该市场今年的价格降低了两次。但是，如果这些期望因关税而完全蒸发，那么传统市场可能会下降的速度超过加密货币。”鲁迪克指出。

How low will Bitcoin go?

比特币会多么低？

It is difficult to predict exactly how far Bitcoin will fall from now.

从现在开始，很难准确预测比特币将掉入多远。

Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, said that even among commodities, Bitcoin is unique. "You know the supply and demand of crude oil, coffee or cocoa. Bitcoin does not have the same type of intrinsic demand. It exists purely for speculative or investment purposes."

互动经纪人首席策略师史蒂夫·索斯尼克（Steve Sosnick）表示，即使在商品中，比特币也是独一无二的。 “您知道原油，咖啡或可可的供应和需求。比特币没有相同类型的内在需求。它纯粹是出于投机或投资目的而存在。”

However, Sosnick pointed to several technical charts that could provide some ideas for price thresholds that investors should watch.

但是，索斯尼克指出了几个技术图表，这些图表可以为投资者应该观看的价格门槛提供一些想法。