史蒂文·埃里希（Steven Ehrlich）

2025年，特朗普政府向加密貨幣行業介紹了一系列“禮物”。

The Trump administration presented a series of "gifts" to the cryptocurrency industry in 2025.

特朗普政府在2025年向加密貨幣行業介紹了一系列“禮物”。

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has suspended enforcement actions and investigations against major cryptocurrency exchanges and companies such as Coinbase, Gemini, Uniswap, OpenSea, ConsenSys, etc. The White House issued an executive order to promote U.S. leadership in the digital asset industry and expressed its intention to build a Bitcoin reserve.

美國證券交易委員會（SEC）暫停了針對主要的加密貨幣交易所的執法行動和調查，以及Coinbase，Gemini，Gemini，Uniswap，Opensea，Consensys等公司等公司。白宮發布了一項行政命令，發出了一項行政命令，以促進美國在數字資產行業的領導才能，並表示打算建立比特幣儲備。

However, these moves have not been enough to stem the recent decline in Bitcoin prices and overall negative sentiment in the crypto industry. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is currently priced at $84,000, down 18% since Donald Trump’s inauguration and nearly 23% from its all-time high, while the total cryptocurrency market capitalization has fallen 21%.

但是，這些舉動還不足以阻止比特幣價格最近下降和加密行業的總體負面情緒。在撰寫本文時，比特幣目前的價格為84,000美元，自唐納德·特朗普就職典禮以來下跌了18％，比歷史最高高點近23％，而總加密貨幣市值下降了21％。

Kavita Gupta, founder and general partner of Delta Blockchain Fund, said: "It feels like all the good news in the crypto space has happened, and the positive developments in the industry seem to be just due to the whim of senior politicians, lacking due process and due diligence... The situation may change at any time, and the sustainability is questionable."

Delta區塊鏈基金的創始人兼普通合夥人Kavita Gupta表示：“感覺就像是加密貨幣空間中的所有好消息發生了，行業的積極發展似乎只是由於高級政治家的異想天開，缺乏正當程序和盡職調查……這種情況可能隨時改變，可持續性可能會發生問題。”

The three major forces driving the market down right now are likely to push it even lower before it regains its footing and begins to move back up. In fact, the crypto industry may have to wait until 2026 before it sees sustained bullish momentum again.

目前推動市場的三大主要力量可能會在恢復其立足點之前將其降低，並開始恢復。實際上，加密行業可能必須等到2026年才能看到持續的看漲勢頭。

Internal backlash

內部反彈

There are many reasons to explain the recent decline, starting with the behavior of cryptocurrency participants themselves.

從加密貨幣參與者本身的行為開始，有很多理由來解釋最近的下降。

For example, the industry has been marred by multiple memecoin scandals, such as $MELANIA and, later, $LIBRA, which even dragged Argentinian President Javier Milley into the scandal. Now, memecoin issuance and trading activity are declining across the industry, raising questions about their long-term sustainability. For example, daily issuance of new tokens reached a local peak of 66,471 on January 24, just six days after $TRUMP went live. On February 27, the latest full data day available, that number fell to 27,741, a 58% drop.

例如，該行業被多個Memecoin醜聞（例如$ Melania）和後來的$ libra損害，甚至將阿根廷總統賈維爾·米利（Javier Milley）拖入了醜聞。現在，在整個行業中，Memecoin發行和交易活動都在下降，引發了有關其長期可持續性的疑問。例如，每日發行新令牌的當地峰值在1月24日達到66,471，$特朗普上線後僅六天。 2月27日，即最新的完整數據日，該數字降至27,741，下降了58％。

Brian Rudick, GSR’s head of research, said of the data: “People used to think that meme coins were the fairest and most efficient form of speculation in crypto, but $LIBRA shows that this is not the case. Now you’re seeing a massive reduction in on-chain volume, [and while] meme coins are bearing the brunt of it, this is dragging down the entire crypto space.”

GSR研究負責人布萊恩·魯迪克（Brian Rudick）談到數據：“人們曾經認為模因硬幣是加密貨幣中最公平，最有效的投機形式，但$ librea表明並非如此。現在，您正在看到鏈上的體積大大減少，而模因硬幣則首當其衝，這在整個加密貨幣空間中都拖延了。”

In addition, the $1.5 billion hack of Bybit by North Korean hackers (the largest theft in cryptocurrency history) has once again raised questions about whether it is safe to put money into cryptocurrencies. Gupta pointed out: "These hacks have made the outside world think that even after 10 years of development, this industry has not really matured."

此外，朝鮮黑客（加密貨幣歷史上最大的盜竊案）耗資15億美元的bybit攻擊，再次提出了有關是否可以安全地將錢投入加密貨幣的問題。古普塔指出：“這些黑客使外界認為，即使經過10年的發展，這個行業也沒有真正成熟。”

External headwinds

外部逆風

All of this negative sentiment within the industry is being amplified by a reduction in risk appetite among investors more broadly.

通過更廣泛的投資者之間的風險食慾降低，該行業內的所有負面情緒都在放大。

Typically, a new administration boosts consumer confidence, and business leaders initially welcomed Trump's election because of his pro-business mindset. However, new data shows consumer confidence is weakening, likely due to Trump's threats to impose 25% tariffs on trading partners such as China, Canada, Mexico and the European Union.

通常，新的政府增強了消費者的信心，而業務領導者最初由於他的親企業心態而歡迎特朗普的選舉。但是，新數據表明，消費者的信心正在減弱，這可能是由於特朗普威脅要對中國，加拿大，墨西哥和歐盟等貿易夥伴徵收25％的關稅。

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index, a nonprofit think tank, fell for the third consecutive month in February, hitting its lowest level since August 2021.

會議委員會的消費者信心指數是一個非營利性智囊團，在2月連續第三個月下降，這是自2021年8月以來的最低水平。

The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey also showed a sharp drop in consumer confidence. The report stated: "Consumer sentiment continued its downward trend from earlier in the month, falling nearly 10% from January. This decline was widespread across age, income and wealth groups."

密歇根大學的消費者情緒調查還顯示，消費者的信心急劇下降。報告指出：“消費者的情緒從本月初開始繼續下降趨勢，比一月下降了近10％。在年齡，收入和財富群體中，這種下降廣泛。”

The report also mentioned: "Expectations for inflation over the next year rose to 4.3% from 3.3%, the highest level since November 2023, and has increased abnormally sharply for two consecutive months. The current reading is well above the range of 2.3%-3.0% in the two years before the epidemic."

該報告還提到：“明年對通貨膨脹的期望從3.3％，這是2023年11月以來的最高水平，並且連續兩個月急劇增加。目前的讀數遠高於該流行病前兩年的2.3％-3.0％。”

“According to the latest data from the CME Fedwatch tool, the market is pricing in two rate cuts this year. But if those expectations were to completely evaporate due to tariffs, traditional markets could fall more than cryptocurrencies,” Rudick noted.

“根據CME FedWatch工具的最新數據，該市場今年的價格降低了兩次。但是，如果這些期望因關稅而完全蒸發，那麼傳統市場可能會下降的速度超過加密貨幣。”魯迪克指出。

How low will Bitcoin go?

比特幣會多麼低？

It is difficult to predict exactly how far Bitcoin will fall from now.

從現在開始，很難準確預測比特幣將掉入多遠。

Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, said that even among commodities, Bitcoin is unique. "You know the supply and demand of crude oil, coffee or cocoa. Bitcoin does not have the same type of intrinsic demand. It exists purely for speculative or investment purposes."

互動經紀人首席策略師史蒂夫·索斯尼克（Steve Sosnick）表示，即使在商品中，比特幣也是獨一無二的。 “您知道原油，咖啡或可可的供應和需求。比特幣沒有相同類型的內在需求。它純粹是出於投機或投資目的而存在。”

However, Sosnick pointed to several technical charts that could provide some ideas for price thresholds that investors should watch.

但是，索斯尼克指出了幾個技術圖表，這些圖表可以為投資者應該觀看的價格門檻提供一些想法。