美联储的秘密干预在紧缩的叙述中点燃了市场的繁荣

股市上涨 10%、黄金创历史新高以及比特币飙升，引发了人们对美联储所谓的收紧资产负债表的质疑。这个谜题可以通过“安静的量化宽松”来解决，即美联储秘密向金融市场提供充足的流动性。这种流动性推动了黄金和比特币等资产价格的上涨，以及股市的上涨。美联储的行动创造了一个小泡沫，并提振了加密货币赌场，这种情况可能会持续到美联储真正收紧货币政策为止，而这可能需要数年时间。

Quiet QE: The Stealthy Fuel Propelling an Unlikely Market Boom

安静的量化宽松：推动不太可能出现的市场繁荣的隐形燃料

Amidst the Federal Reserve's supposed balance sheet tightening, a paradoxical surge has gripped the financial markets, leaving investors perplexed. The stock market has ascended by 10% year-to-date, gold has soared to unprecedented heights, and bitcoin has embarked on a seemingly unstoppable rally. The enigma behind this market exuberance lies in a subtle shift within the Fed's monetary policy: the phenomenon known as "quiet QE."

在美联储所谓的收紧资产负债表之际，金融市场却出现了矛盾的飙升，令投资者感到困惑。今年迄今为止，股市上涨了 10%，黄金飙升至前所未有的高度，比特币也开始了看似势不可挡的上涨。市场繁荣背后的谜团在于美联储货币政策的微妙转变：即所谓的“安静量化宽松”现象。

Last summer, the rhetoric from Fed Chair Jay Powell and his colleagues echoed an aggressive stance against inflation. However, their actions have painted a starkly different narrative. Behind the scenes, the Fed has been discreetly injecting liquidity into the financial system, thereby fueling the market's ascent.

去年夏天，美联储主席鲍威尔及其同事的言论呼应了反对通胀的激进立场。然而，他们的行为描绘了一个截然不同的故事。在幕后，美联储一直在谨慎地向金融体系注入流动性，从而推动了市场的上涨。

This "Fed pivot" became evident during the UK gilt crisis in the fall of 2022. As UK pension funds found themselves perilously exposed to volatile gilts, the Fed and other central banks intervened, reversing their course of monetary tightening and loosening their grip.

这种“美联储转向”在 2022 年秋季英国国债危机期间变得更加明显。随着英国养老基金发现自己面临着不稳定的英国国债的危险，美联储和其他央行进行了干预，扭转了货币紧缩政策并放松了控制。

Quiet QE has emerged as a modern-day manifestation of inflation-taming policies. In the past, such actions would have manifested solely in higher gold prices. However, with the advent of bitcoin, investors increasingly seek this digital asset as a hedge against monetary largesse.

无声量化宽松已成为抑制通胀政策的现代表现。在过去，此类行动只会表现为金价上涨。然而，随着比特币的出现，投资者越来越多地寻求这种数字资产来对冲金钱慷慨。

Prior to the gilt crisis, the Fed's unwavering commitment to monetary tightening had tempered investment enthusiasm. However, the Fed's subtle policy shift in late September 2022 ignited a market resurgence. As the Fed's liquidity tap remained open, the S&P 500 has surged by a remarkable 48%, while bitcoin has skyrocketed by a staggering 266%.

在金边债券危机之前，美联储对货币紧缩的坚定承诺削弱了投资热情。然而，美联储在2022年9月下旬微妙的政策转变引发了市场的复苏。由于美联储的流动性水龙头保持开放，标准普尔 500 指数飙升了 48%，而比特币则飙升了惊人的 266%。

The Fed's tightrope walk between signaling monetary restraint and providing ample liquidity has created a paradox within the financial markets. Despite the Fed's proclaimed tightening, the stock market, gold, and bitcoin continue to thrive.

美联储在发出货币紧缩信号和提供充足流动性之间走钢丝，在金融市场中造成了一个悖论。尽管美联储宣布紧缩，但股市、黄金和比特币仍在蓬勃发展。

The disconnect between the Fed's rhetoric and its actions resembles the dotcom bubble of 1999, albeit on a smaller scale. The frothy valuations of companies like Nvidia NVDA, trading at a sky-high 36 times sales, underscore the Fed's unanticipated impact on the markets.

美联储的言论与行动之间的脱节类似于 1999 年的网络泡沫，尽管规模较小。 Nvidia NVDA 等公司的估值泡沫，其交易价格高达销售额的 36 倍，突显了美联储对市场的意外影响。

Amidst this market surge fueled by quiet QE, it is crucial to tread cautiously. While bitcoin's ascent may continue as long as the Fed's liquidity funnel remains open, a policy reversal could send shockwaves through the cryptosphere.

在安静的量化宽松推动的市场飙升中，谨慎行事至关重要。尽管只要美联储的流动性渠道保持开放，比特币的上涨可能就会继续，但政策逆转可能会给加密货币圈带来冲击波。

Therefore, seeking backdoor plays rather than directly investing in bitcoin offers a more prudent approach. The "pick and shovel" strategy, reminiscent of the gold rush era, involves investing in companies that profit from the bitcoin craze without the inherent risks of direct cryptocurrency exposure.

因此，寻求借壳而不是直接投资比特币提供了更谨慎的方法。 “镐和铲”策略让人想起淘金热时代，涉及投资从比特币热潮中获利的公司，而不存在直接接触加密货币的固有风险。

CBOE Global Markets CBOE, the owner of the Chicago Board Options Exchange and BATS Global Markets, stands as a prime example of a backdoor play. The company's expansion into bitcoin and ether futures markets positions it at the forefront of the crypto revolution, akin to a casino owner benefiting from the gambling frenzy.

CBOE 全球市场 CBOE 是芝加哥期权交易所和 BATS 全球市场的所有者，是后门交易的典型例子。该公司向比特币和以太坊期货市场的扩张使其处于加密货币革命的最前沿，类似于从赌博狂热中受益的赌场老板。

As the financial markets morph into a colossal casino, savvy investors seek shelter within the house's walls. CBOE, with its robust dividend yield and a hefty payout ratio, offers a safe haven amidst the market's turbulence.

随着金融市场演变成一座巨大的赌场，精明的投资者纷纷在赌场内寻求庇护。芝加哥期权交易所凭借其强劲的股息收益率和高派息率，在市场动荡中提供了一个安全的避风港。

The Fed's quiet QE may have inadvertently fueled an unlikely market boom, but the long-term consequences remain uncertain. As short-term traders, we capitalize on the market's momentum, cognizant of the potential risks and seeking shelter in safe havens like CBOE. The future trajectory of this market experiment hinges on the Fed's ability to orchestrate a graceful exit from its current monetary largesse. Until then, the crypto casino remains open, and the chips continue to pile high.

美联储悄然实施的量化宽松政策可能无意中助长了不太可能发生的市场繁荣，但长期后果仍不确定。作为短期交易者，我们利用市场的动力，认识到潜在的风险，并在芝加哥期权交易所等避风港寻求庇护。这一市场实验的未来轨迹取决于美联储是否有能力优雅地退出当前的宽松货币政策。在那之前，加密货币赌场仍然开放，筹码继续堆积如山。