聯準會的秘密幹預在緊縮的敘事中點燃了市場的繁榮

股市上漲 10%、黃金創歷史新高以及比特幣飆升，引發了人們對聯準會所謂的收緊資產負債表的質疑。這個謎題可以透過「安靜的量化寬鬆」來解決，即聯準會秘密向金融市場提供充足的流動性。這種流動性推動了黃金和比特幣等資產價格的上漲，以及股市的上漲。聯準會的行動創造了一個小泡沫，並提振了加密貨幣賭場，這種情況可能會持續到聯準會真正收緊貨幣政策為止，而這可能需要數年時間。

Quiet QE: The Stealthy Fuel Propelling an Unlikely Market Boom

安靜的量化寬鬆：推動不太可能出現的市場繁榮的隱形燃料

Amidst the Federal Reserve's supposed balance sheet tightening, a paradoxical surge has gripped the financial markets, leaving investors perplexed. The stock market has ascended by 10% year-to-date, gold has soared to unprecedented heights, and bitcoin has embarked on a seemingly unstoppable rally. The enigma behind this market exuberance lies in a subtle shift within the Fed's monetary policy: the phenomenon known as "quiet QE."

在聯準會所謂的收緊資產負債表之際，金融市場卻出現了矛盾的飆升，令投資人感到困惑。今年迄今為止，股市上漲了 10%，黃金飆升至前所未有的高度，比特幣也開始了看似勢不可擋的上漲。市場繁榮背後的謎團在於聯準會貨幣政策的微妙轉變：即所謂的「安靜量化寬鬆」現象。

Last summer, the rhetoric from Fed Chair Jay Powell and his colleagues echoed an aggressive stance against inflation. However, their actions have painted a starkly different narrative. Behind the scenes, the Fed has been discreetly injecting liquidity into the financial system, thereby fueling the market's ascent.

去年夏天，聯準會主席鮑威爾及其同事的言論呼應了反對通膨的激進立場。然而，他們的行為描繪了一個完全不同的故事。在幕後，聯準會一直謹慎地向金融體系注入流動性，推動了市場的上漲。

This "Fed pivot" became evident during the UK gilt crisis in the fall of 2022. As UK pension funds found themselves perilously exposed to volatile gilts, the Fed and other central banks intervened, reversing their course of monetary tightening and loosening their grip.

這種「聯準會轉向」在2022 年秋季英國國債危機期間變得更加明顯。隨著英國退休基金發現自己面臨著不穩定的英國國債的危險，聯準會和其他央行進行了乾預，扭轉了貨幣緊縮政策並放鬆了控制。

Quiet QE has emerged as a modern-day manifestation of inflation-taming policies. In the past, such actions would have manifested solely in higher gold prices. However, with the advent of bitcoin, investors increasingly seek this digital asset as a hedge against monetary largesse.

無聲量化寬鬆已成為抑制通膨政策的現代表現。在過去，此類行動只會表現為金價上漲。然而，隨著比特幣的出現，投資者越來越多地尋求這種數位資產來對沖金錢慷慨。

Prior to the gilt crisis, the Fed's unwavering commitment to monetary tightening had tempered investment enthusiasm. However, the Fed's subtle policy shift in late September 2022 ignited a market resurgence. As the Fed's liquidity tap remained open, the S&P 500 has surged by a remarkable 48%, while bitcoin has skyrocketed by a staggering 266%.

在金邊債券危機之前，聯準會對貨幣緊縮的堅定承諾削弱了投資熱情。然而，聯準會在2022年9月下旬微妙的政策轉變引發了市場的復甦。由於聯準會的流動性水龍頭保持開放，標準普爾 500 指數飆升了 48%，而比特幣則飆升了驚人的 266%。

The Fed's tightrope walk between signaling monetary restraint and providing ample liquidity has created a paradox within the financial markets. Despite the Fed's proclaimed tightening, the stock market, gold, and bitcoin continue to thrive.

聯準會在發出貨幣緊縮訊號和提供充足流動性之間走鋼絲，在金融市場中造成了一個悖論。儘管聯準會宣布緊縮，但股市、黃金和比特幣仍在蓬勃發展。

The disconnect between the Fed's rhetoric and its actions resembles the dotcom bubble of 1999, albeit on a smaller scale. The frothy valuations of companies like Nvidia NVDA, trading at a sky-high 36 times sales, underscore the Fed's unanticipated impact on the markets.

聯準會的言論與行動之間的脫節類似於 1999 年的網路泡沫，儘管規模較小。 Nvidia NVDA 等公司的估值泡沫，其交易價格高達銷售額的 36 倍，突顯了聯準會對市場的意外影響。

Amidst this market surge fueled by quiet QE, it is crucial to tread cautiously. While bitcoin's ascent may continue as long as the Fed's liquidity funnel remains open, a policy reversal could send shockwaves through the cryptosphere.

在安靜的量化寬鬆推動的市場飆升中，謹慎行事至關重要。儘管只要聯準會的流動性管道保持開放，比特幣的上漲可能就會持續，但政策逆轉可能會為加密貨幣圈帶來衝擊波。

Therefore, seeking backdoor plays rather than directly investing in bitcoin offers a more prudent approach. The "pick and shovel" strategy, reminiscent of the gold rush era, involves investing in companies that profit from the bitcoin craze without the inherent risks of direct cryptocurrency exposure.

因此，尋求借殼而不是直接投資比特幣提供了更謹慎的方法。 「鎬和鏟」策略讓人想起淘金熱時代，涉及投資從比特幣熱潮中獲利的公司，而不存在直接接觸加密貨幣的固有風險。

CBOE Global Markets CBOE, the owner of the Chicago Board Options Exchange and BATS Global Markets, stands as a prime example of a backdoor play. The company's expansion into bitcoin and ether futures markets positions it at the forefront of the crypto revolution, akin to a casino owner benefiting from the gambling frenzy.

CBOE 全球市場 CBOE 是芝加哥期權交易所和 BATS 全球市場的所有者，是後門交易的典型例子。該公司向比特幣和以太坊期貨市場的擴張使其處於加密貨幣革命的最前沿，類似於從賭博狂熱中受益的賭場老闆。

As the financial markets morph into a colossal casino, savvy investors seek shelter within the house's walls. CBOE, with its robust dividend yield and a hefty payout ratio, offers a safe haven amidst the market's turbulence.

隨著金融市場演變成一座巨大的賭場，精明的投資者紛紛在賭場內尋求庇護。芝加哥選擇權交易所憑藉其強勁的股息殖利率和高股息率，在市場動盪中提供了一個安全的避風港。

The Fed's quiet QE may have inadvertently fueled an unlikely market boom, but the long-term consequences remain uncertain. As short-term traders, we capitalize on the market's momentum, cognizant of the potential risks and seeking shelter in safe havens like CBOE. The future trajectory of this market experiment hinges on the Fed's ability to orchestrate a graceful exit from its current monetary largesse. Until then, the crypto casino remains open, and the chips continue to pile high.

聯準會悄悄實施的量化寬鬆政策可能無意中助長了不太可能發生的市場繁榮，但長期後果仍不確定。作為短期交易者，我們利用市場的動力，認識到潛在的風險，並在芝加哥期權交易所等避風港尋求庇護。這項市場實驗的未來軌跡取決於聯準會是否有能力優雅地退出當前的寬鬆貨幣政策。在那之前，加密貨幣賭場仍然開放，籌碼繼續堆積如山。