现货 Solana ETF：Solana 的潜在 900% 收益？

自从 VanEck 宣布向美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 提交 Solana 现货 ETF 备案以来，加密货币市场一直在蓬勃发展。

The cryptocurrency market reacted positively on Monday after asset manager VanEck filed a Solana spot ETF application with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). According to analysts at GSR Markets, this new financial product could multiply the current value of the SOL token by 9.

资产管理公司 VanEck 向美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 提交 Solana 现货 ETF 申请后，周一加密货币市场反应积极。 GSR Markets 的分析师表示，这种新的金融产品可能会使 SOL 代币的当前价值乘以 9。

Solana (SOL) is one of the “3 big heads” of the crypto sector, alongside Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), according to GSR Markets. The firm even anticipates in its report that SOL would be the next token to obtain approval for a spot ETF in the United States.

根据 GSR Markets 的数据，Solana (SOL) 是加密货币领域的“三大巨头”之一，与比特币 (BTC) 和以太坊 (ETH) 并列。该公司甚至在其报告中预计 SOL 将成为下一个在美国获得现货 ETF 批准的代币。

Perfect timing or coincidence? As we said, the same day the GSR Markets report was published, the asset manager filed its Solana spot ETF application with the SEC. As a reminder, VanEck and other fund managers launched Bitcoin spot ETFs in January, after lengthy discussions with US regulators.

完美的时机还是巧合？正如我们所说，在 GSR Markets 报告发布的同一天，该资产管理公司向 SEC 提交了 Solana 现货 ETF 申请。提醒一下，VanEck 和其他基金经理在与美国监管机构进行了长时间讨论后，于 1 月份推出了比特币现货 ETF。

Regarding price predictions, GSR Markets analysis assumes that Solana spot ETFs would capture 14% of the flows obtained by spot Bitcoin ETFs since their launch.

关于价格预测，GSR Markets 分析假设 Solana 现货 ETF 将占据现货比特币 ETF 自推出以来获得的流量的 14%。

If this scenario comes to fruition, SOL price could reach over $1,300, 9 times higher than its current price of $145. At that price, the market capitalization of Solana’s cryptocurrency would exceed $600 billion.

如果这种情况成为现实，SOL 的价格可能会超过 1,300 美元，是当前 145 美元价格的 9 倍。按照这个价格，Solana 加密货币的市值将超过 6000 亿美元。

Solana: a complex regulatory context

Solana：复杂的监管环境

GSR Markets analysts also envision more bearish and moderate scenarios.

GSR Markets 分析师还设想了更加悲观和温和的情景。

In a “bear” scenario, Solana spot ETFs would only capture 2% of flows from spot Bitcoin ETFs, which would result in a 140% increase in the price of SOL. In their baseline scenario, captured flows would amount to 5%, a price increase of 340%.

在“熊市”情景下，Solana 现货 ETF 只能捕获现货比特币 ETF 流量的 2%，这将导致 SOL 价格上涨 140%。在他们的基准情景中，捕获的流量将达到 5%，价格上涨 340%。

SOL price evolution in 3 different scenarios: bearish, moderate and bullish

SOL 价格在 3 种不同情况下的演变：看跌、温和和看涨

Note that these estimates could be revised upwards if Solana spot ETFs included income from staking (hold tokens to earn rewards). This scenario remains unlikely at this time, as staking has not yet been authorized for SEC-approved Ethereum spot ETFs.

请注意，如果 Solana 现货 ETF 包括质押收入（持有代币以获得奖励），这些估计可能会向上修正。目前这种情况仍然不太可能发生，因为 SEC 批准的以太坊现货 ETF 尚未获得质押授权。

Despite GSR Market's analysis and optimism, approval of a Solana spot ETF is still far from certain. Eric Balchunas, an ETF analyst at Bloomberg, and other industry experts believe that a change in SEC chairman would be necessary for this project to come to fruition.

尽管 GSR Market 进行了分析和乐观，但 Solana 现货 ETF 是否获得批准仍远未确定。彭博社 (Bloomberg) ETF 分析师埃里克·巴尔丘纳斯 (Eric Balchunas) 和其他行业专家认为，要使该项目取得成果，需要更换 SEC 主席。

Indeed, the SEC and its current chairman, Gary Gensler, had described the SOL token as “unregulated financial security” as part of the legal proceedings against Binance and Coinbase. This position risks significantly complicating the approval of a Solana spot ETF, compared to already approved spot Bitcoin ETFs and spot Ethereum ETFs.

事实上，作为针对 Binance 和 Coinbase 的法律诉讼的一部分，SEC 及其现任主席 Gary Gensler 将 SOL 代币描述为“不受监管的金融安全”。与已经批准的现货比特币 ETF 和现货以太坊 ETF 相比，这一立场可能会使 Solana 现货 ETF 的审批变得更加复杂。

Despite regulatory obstacles, Solana’s future looks promising in the crypto sector and is already attracting interest from institutions. Earlier in June, the ecosystem and network received praise from Franklin Templeton, an asset manager worth nearly $1.5 trillion.

尽管存在监管障碍，Solana 在加密货币领域的未来看起来充满希望，并且已经引起了机构的兴趣。 6 月初，该生态系统和网络获得了价值近 1.5 万亿美元的资产管理公司富兰克林邓普顿 (Franklin Templeton) 的赞扬。