現貨 Solana ETF：Solana 的潛在 900% 收益？

自從 VanEck 宣布向美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 提交 Solana 現貨 ETF 備案以來，加密貨幣市場一直在蓬勃發展。

The cryptocurrency market reacted positively on Monday after asset manager VanEck filed a Solana spot ETF application with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). According to analysts at GSR Markets, this new financial product could multiply the current value of the SOL token by 9.

資產管理公司 VanEck 向美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 提交 Solana 現貨 ETF 申請後，週一加密貨幣市場反應積極。 GSR Markets 的分析師表示，這種新的金融產品可能會使 SOL 代幣的當前價值乘以 9。

Solana (SOL) is one of the “3 big heads” of the crypto sector, alongside Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), according to GSR Markets. The firm even anticipates in its report that SOL would be the next token to obtain approval for a spot ETF in the United States.

根據 GSR Markets 的數據，Solana (SOL) 是加密貨幣領域的「三大巨頭」之一，與比特幣 (BTC) 和以太幣 (ETH) 並列。該公司甚至在其報告中預計 SOL 將成為下一個在美國獲得現貨 ETF 批准的代幣。

Perfect timing or coincidence? As we said, the same day the GSR Markets report was published, the asset manager filed its Solana spot ETF application with the SEC. As a reminder, VanEck and other fund managers launched Bitcoin spot ETFs in January, after lengthy discussions with US regulators.

完美的時機還是巧合？正如我們所說，在 GSR Markets 報告發布的同一天，該資產管理公司向 SEC 提交了 Solana 現貨 ETF 申請。提醒一下，VanEck 和其他基金經理在與美國監管機構進行了長時間討論後，於 1 月推出了比特幣現貨 ETF。

Regarding price predictions, GSR Markets analysis assumes that Solana spot ETFs would capture 14% of the flows obtained by spot Bitcoin ETFs since their launch.

關於價格預測，GSR Markets 分析假設 Solana 現貨 ETF 將佔據現貨比特幣 ETF 自推出以來獲得的流量的 14%。

If this scenario comes to fruition, SOL price could reach over $1,300, 9 times higher than its current price of $145. At that price, the market capitalization of Solana’s cryptocurrency would exceed $600 billion.

如果這種情況成為現實，SOL 的價格可能會超過 1,300 美元，是目前 145 美元價格的 9 倍。以這個價格，Solana 加密貨幣的市值將超過 6,000 億美元。

Solana: a complex regulatory context

Solana：複雜的監管環境

GSR Markets analysts also envision more bearish and moderate scenarios.

GSR Markets 分析師也設想了更悲觀和溫和的情景。

In a “bear” scenario, Solana spot ETFs would only capture 2% of flows from spot Bitcoin ETFs, which would result in a 140% increase in the price of SOL. In their baseline scenario, captured flows would amount to 5%, a price increase of 340%.

在「熊市」情境下，Solana 現貨 ETF 只能捕獲現貨比特幣 ETF 流量的 2%，這將導致 SOL 價格上漲 140%。在他們的基準情境中，捕獲的流量將達到 5%，價格上漲 340%。

SOL price evolution in 3 different scenarios: bearish, moderate and bullish

SOL 價格在 3 種不同情況下的演變：看跌、溫和和看漲

Note that these estimates could be revised upwards if Solana spot ETFs included income from staking (hold tokens to earn rewards). This scenario remains unlikely at this time, as staking has not yet been authorized for SEC-approved Ethereum spot ETFs.

請注意，如果 Solana 現貨 ETF 包括質押收入（持有代幣以獲得獎勵），這些估計可能會向上修正。目前這種情況仍然不太可能發生，因為 SEC 批准的以太坊現貨 ETF 尚未獲得質押授權。

Despite GSR Market's analysis and optimism, approval of a Solana spot ETF is still far from certain. Eric Balchunas, an ETF analyst at Bloomberg, and other industry experts believe that a change in SEC chairman would be necessary for this project to come to fruition.

儘管 GSR Market 進行了分析和樂觀，但 Solana 現貨 ETF 是否獲得批准仍遠未確定。彭博社 (Bloomberg) ETF 分析師 Eric Balchunas 和其他行業專家認為，要讓該項目取得成果，需要更換 SEC 主席。

Indeed, the SEC and its current chairman, Gary Gensler, had described the SOL token as “unregulated financial security” as part of the legal proceedings against Binance and Coinbase. This position risks significantly complicating the approval of a Solana spot ETF, compared to already approved spot Bitcoin ETFs and spot Ethereum ETFs.

事實上，作為針對 Binance 和 Coinbase 的法律訴訟的一部分，SEC 及其現任主席 Gary Gensler 將 SOL 代幣描述為「不受監管的財務安全」。與已批准的現貨比特幣 ETF 和現貨以太坊 ETF 相比，這一立場可能會使 Solana 現貨 ETF 的批准變得更加複雜。

Despite regulatory obstacles, Solana’s future looks promising in the crypto sector and is already attracting interest from institutions. Earlier in June, the ecosystem and network received praise from Franklin Templeton, an asset manager worth nearly $1.5 trillion.

儘管存在監管障礙，Solana 在加密貨幣領域的未來看起來充滿希望，並且已經引起了機構的興趣。 6 月初，該生態系統和網路獲得了價值近 1.5 兆美元的資產管理公司富蘭克林鄧普頓 (Franklin Templeton) 的讚揚。