现货比特币 ETF：资金外流削弱了最初的光芒

Are Spot Bitcoin ETFs Losing Their Luster?

现货比特币 ETF 正在失去光彩吗？

The much-anticipated spot bitcoin ETFs have hit a speed bump in their first week of existence, with net outflows marring their debut. Coinbase, the crypto exchange behemoth, has observed a concerning $836 million exodus from these funds between March 18 and 21. The outflows have accelerated Bitcoin's recent slide, pushing it below the $63,000 mark last week.

备受期待的现货比特币 ETF 在推出的第一周就遭遇了减速，净流出影响了它们的首次亮相。加密货币交易巨头 Coinbase 观察到，3 月 18 日至 21 日期间，这些基金有 8.36 亿美元的资金外流。这些资金外流加速了比特币近期的下滑，使其上周跌破 63,000 美元大关。

What's Behind the Outflows?

资金外流的背后是什么？

The exact reasons for the surge in outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) remain shrouded in mystery. Over four days, the outflows totaled a whopping $1.83 billion, leaving analysts scratching their heads.

灰度比特币信托基金（GBTC）资金流出激增的确切原因仍然笼罩在神秘之中。四天内，资金外流总额高达 18.3 亿美元，令分析师摸不着头脑。

One potential culprit, as Coinbase suggests, is the bankruptcy estate of Genesis Global. The embattled crypto lender is expected to sell 35.9 million GBTC shares, a move that could have triggered the recent selling pressure.

正如 Coinbase 所说，潜在的罪魁祸首之一是 Genesis Global 的破产财产。这家陷入困境的加密货币贷款机构预计将出售 3590 万股 GBTC 股票，此举可能引发近期的抛售压力。

Genesis' Role: A Tale of Two Sales

Genesis 的角色：两次销售的故事

However, it's important to note that this sale is separate from the 30.9 million shares Genesis pledged as collateral for a $1.2 billion loan from Gemini Earn users last year. Gemini has since reached a settlement with Genesis to return those assets in kind, with payment expected in the coming weeks.

然而，值得注意的是，此次出售与 Genesis 去年向 Gemini Earn 用户提供的 12 亿美元贷款的抵押品 3090 万股股票是分开的。此后，Gemini 已与 Genesis 达成和解，以实物方式返还这些资产，预计将在未来几周内付款。

Will Outflows Dampen Bitcoin's Spirits?

资金外流会削弱比特币的精神吗？

Coinbase is hesitant to draw a direct link between the recent GBTC outflows and Genesis's sales. However, the timing and magnitude of the outflows do coincide with Genesis's payment obligations.

Coinbase 犹豫是否将最近的 GBTC 资金外流与 Genesis 的销售联系起来。然而，资金流出的时间和规模确实与 Genesis 的付款义务相符。

The report offers a silver lining: "Given that the majority of creditor payments will be made in crypto and not cash, the market effect on bitcoin performance should eventually be net neutral."

该报告提供了一线希望：“鉴于大部分债权人付款将以加密货币而非现金形式进行，市场对比特币表现的影响最终应该是净中性的。”

Fundamentals or Flow Obsession?

基础知识还是流量痴迷？

The cryptocurrency market's laser-like focus on spot bitcoin ETF flows rather than underlying fundamentals has raised concerns. Coinbase's report highlights the need for a more balanced approach, considering both technical and fundamental factors when making investment decisions.

加密货币市场对比特币 ETF 现货流动而非基本面的高度关注引发了担忧。 Coinbase 的报告强调，在做出投资决策时需要采取更加平衡的方法，同时考虑技术和基本面因素。

Where to Next for Spot Bitcoin ETFs?

现货比特币 ETF 下一步该何去何从？

Despite the recent setbacks, spot bitcoin ETFs remain a topic of keen interest. JMP Securities recently projected that these funds could see a staggering $220 billion of inflows over the next three years. Time will tell whether this bullish forecast holds true or whether the current outflows signal a more cautious sentiment among investors.

尽管最近遭遇挫折，现货比特币 ETF 仍然是人们热衷的话题。 JMP 证券最近预测，未来三年这些基金的流入量可能达到惊人的 2200 亿美元。时间会证明这一看涨预测是否成立，或者当前的资金外流是否表明投资者情绪更加谨慎。