現貨比特幣 ETF：資金外流削弱了最初的光芒

Are Spot Bitcoin ETFs Losing Their Luster?

現貨比特幣 ETF 正在失去光彩嗎？

The much-anticipated spot bitcoin ETFs have hit a speed bump in their first week of existence, with net outflows marring their debut. Coinbase, the crypto exchange behemoth, has observed a concerning $836 million exodus from these funds between March 18 and 21. The outflows have accelerated Bitcoin's recent slide, pushing it below the $63,000 mark last week.

備受期待的現貨比特幣 ETF 在推出的第一周就遭遇了減速，淨流出影響了它們的首次亮相。加密貨幣交易巨頭 Coinbase 觀察到，3 月 18 日至 21 日期間，這些基金有 8.36 億美元的資金外流。這些資金外流加速了比特幣近期的下滑，使其上週跌破 63,000 美元大關。

What's Behind the Outflows?

資金外流的背後是什麼？

The exact reasons for the surge in outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) remain shrouded in mystery. Over four days, the outflows totaled a whopping $1.83 billion, leaving analysts scratching their heads.

灰階比特幣信託基金（GBTC）資金流出激增的確切原因仍然籠罩在神秘之中。四天內，資金外流總額高達 18.3 億美元，令分析師摸不著頭緒。

One potential culprit, as Coinbase suggests, is the bankruptcy estate of Genesis Global. The embattled crypto lender is expected to sell 35.9 million GBTC shares, a move that could have triggered the recent selling pressure.

正如 Coinbase 所說，潛在的罪魁禍首之一是 Genesis Global 的破產財產。這家陷入困境的加密貨幣貸款機構預計將出售 3,590 萬股 GBTC 股票，此舉可能引發近期的拋售壓力。

Genesis' Role: A Tale of Two Sales

Genesis 的角色：兩次銷售的故事

However, it's important to note that this sale is separate from the 30.9 million shares Genesis pledged as collateral for a $1.2 billion loan from Gemini Earn users last year. Gemini has since reached a settlement with Genesis to return those assets in kind, with payment expected in the coming weeks.

然而，值得注意的是，此次出售與 Genesis 去年向 Gemini Earn 用戶提供的 12 億美元貸款的抵押品 3,090 萬股股票是分開的。此後，Gemini 已與 Genesis 達成和解，以實物方式返還這些資產，預計在未來幾週內付款。

Will Outflows Dampen Bitcoin's Spirits?

資金外流會削弱比特幣的精神嗎？

Coinbase is hesitant to draw a direct link between the recent GBTC outflows and Genesis's sales. However, the timing and magnitude of the outflows do coincide with Genesis's payment obligations.

Coinbase 猶豫是否將最近的 GBTC 資金外流與 Genesis 的銷售聯繫起來。然而，資金流出的時間和規模確實與 Genesis 的付款義務相符。

The report offers a silver lining: "Given that the majority of creditor payments will be made in crypto and not cash, the market effect on bitcoin performance should eventually be net neutral."

該報告提供了一線希望：“鑑於大部分債權人付款將以加密貨幣而非現金形式進行，市場對比特幣表現的影響最終應該是淨中性的。”

Fundamentals or Flow Obsession?

基礎知識還是流量迷戀？

The cryptocurrency market's laser-like focus on spot bitcoin ETF flows rather than underlying fundamentals has raised concerns. Coinbase's report highlights the need for a more balanced approach, considering both technical and fundamental factors when making investment decisions.

加密貨幣市場對比特幣 ETF 現貨流動而非基本面的高度關注引發了擔憂。 Coinbase 的報告強調，在做出投資決策時需要採取更平衡的方法，同時考慮技術和基本面因素。

Where to Next for Spot Bitcoin ETFs?

現貨比特幣 ETF 下一步該何去何從？

Despite the recent setbacks, spot bitcoin ETFs remain a topic of keen interest. JMP Securities recently projected that these funds could see a staggering $220 billion of inflows over the next three years. Time will tell whether this bullish forecast holds true or whether the current outflows signal a more cautious sentiment among investors.

儘管最近遭遇挫折，現貨比特幣 ETF 仍然是人們熱衷的話題。 JMP 證券最近預測，未來三年這些基金的流入量可能達到驚人的 2,200 億美元。時間會證明這一看漲預測是否成立，或者當前的資金外流是否表明投資者情緒更加謹慎。