Solana（Sol）价格从历史最高高的50％崩溃，接下来是什么？

从2025年1月，索拉纳（Solana）的原住民代币（Sol）的历史最高高点（Sol）跌至144美元，其价值一半。

From its all-time high of $295 hit in January 2025, Solana’s native token (SOL) has dropped to $144, half its value.

从2025年1月，索拉纳（Solana）的原住民代币（Sol）的历史最高高点（Sol）跌至144美元，其价值一半。

Investors and analysts are concerned about the near-term future of the blockchain as the steep decline has sent SOL/USD to its lowest price level since October 2024.

投资者和分析师担心区块链的近期未来，因为自2024年10月以来，Sol/USD的急剧下降已将其降低到最低价格。

Solana price analysis

Solana价格分析

Why is Solana Price Crashing?

为什么索拉娜的价格崩溃？

Several linked elements influencing the Solana ecosystem can help to explain the sharp drop:

影响Solana生态系统的几个链接元素可以帮助解释急剧的下降：

1. Collapsing On-chain Activity

1。崩溃的链活动

From $12 billion in January to $7.13 billion now, Solana’s Total Value Locked (TVL) has plunged sharply. Important decentralized applications have seen notable drop in usage:

从一月份的120亿美元到现在的71.3亿美元，索拉纳的总价值锁定（TVL）急剧下降。重要的分散应用程序的使用情况显着下降：

These drops have directly impacted Solana’s on-chain volumes, which plummeted from $97 billion weekly in mid-January to just $7 billion this week.

这些下降直接影响了Solana的链卷，该链量从1月中旬的每周970亿美元下降到本周的70亿美元。

2. Liquidity Migration to Other Chains

2。流动性迁移到其他连锁店

Over the past thirty days, around $500 million in liquidity has been bridged away from Solana to rival blockchains; Ethereum, Sonic, and Arbitrum have benefited most. This migration betrays declining faith in the Solana environment.

在过去的三十天中，大约5亿美元的流动性从Solana桥接到了竞争对手的区块链；以太坊，声音和仲裁都受益最大。这种迁移背叛了对索拉纳环境的信念下降。

Miles Deutscher, a crypto analyst, pointed out this change: “Solana’s fee burn dropped to its lowest value of $177,000 in a month,” and remarked that “people are tired of getting burned at the casino, and many are walking away from the tables.”

加密分析师Miles Deutscher指出了这一变化：“ Solana的费用燃烧下降到了一个月的最低价值177,000美元”，并指出：“人们厌倦了在赌场被烧毁，许多人都从桌子上走开了。”

3. Collapse of Solana’s Memecoin Ecosystem

3。Solana的Memecoin生态系统的崩溃

The Solana-based memecoin sector, which previously reached a collective market cap of $25 billion in December 2024, has contracted to $8.3 billion with a further 23% crash occurring in the past 24 hours alone.

总部位于Solana的Memecoin行业先前在2024年12月达到了250亿美元的集体市值，仅在过去24小时内就签约了83亿美元，另外23％的坠机事故发生。

After 7.5 million tokens were launched and $550 million in revenue was generated on Pump.fun, most of these speculative assets are now down 80-90% from their peaks.

在泵上发射了750万个令牌并产生了5.5亿美元的收入。

4. Imminent SOL Token Unlock Pressure

4。迫在眉睫的令牌解锁压力

With 11.2 million SOL tokens—worth over $2 billion—planned to be freed on March 1, 2025, a big bearish catalyst looms. Representing a 10% annualized inflation rate, over 16.1 million tokens will be produced overall between February and May 2025.

有1,120万个SOL令牌（超过20亿美元）计划于2025年3月1日释放，这是一个大的看跌催化剂。代表年度通货膨胀率10％，将在2月至2025年5月之间总体上产生超过1610万个令牌。

Many of these tokens were bought at very cheaper ($64) prices during FTX auctions by companies like Galaxy Digital, Pantera Capital, and Figure, who have little motivation to hang in the present market.

这些代币中的许多是在FTX拍卖过程中以非常便宜（64美元）的价格购买的，例如Galaxy Digital，Pantera Capital和Tigue等公司，他们几乎没有动力挂在当今市场上。

Crypto market maker Wintermute has withdrawn over $38 million worth of SOL from Binance, potentially in anticipation of further downward pressure.

加密推销商Wintermute已从Binance撤回了超过3,800万美元的Sol，这可能是因为预期进一步的下降压力。

Are Solana ETF Prospects Fading?

Solana ETF的前景正在褪色吗？

The drop in SOL price matches declining hopes for the upcoming approval of a Solana ETF in the United States. Applications for SOL-based ETFs have been filed by Franklin Templeton, Grayscale, Bitwise, Canary, 21Shares, and VanEck among several fund issuers

SOL价格下跌匹配的希望下降了希望即将在美国获得Solana ETF的批准。基于SOL的ETF的申请已由富兰克林·邓普顿（Franklin Templeton），灰度，位，金丝雀，21shares和Vaneck提交

But, recent events as the Bybit exchange attack and OKX’s US Department of Justice settlement have muddled the regulatory picture.

但是，最近发生的事件是Bybit Exchange Attack和OKX美国司法部定居点的监管情况。

Overall Crypto Market’s Bearish Mood Weighs on Solana Price

总体加密货币市场的看跌情绪与Solana价格有关

Solana’s slide coincides with a larger market downturn for cryptocurrencies; Bitcoin falls from its all-time high above $108,000 to about $86,000. But SOL’s 17% reduction since February 22 greatly outpaces the 10% drop in the wider altcoin market over the same length of time.

Solana的幻灯片与加密货币的较大市场低迷相吻合；比特币的历史最高高于108,000美元，跌至约86,000美元。但是，自2月22日以来，Sol的减少了17％，超过了相同时间内更广泛的Altcoin市场下降的10％。

Further souring mood around the Solana ecosystem is the Libra memecoin affair, which saw a Solana-based token drop 90% of its value within hours and spurred charges of fraud involving Argentine President Javier Milei.

天秤座的成员事件是索拉纳生态系统周围的进一步酸味的情绪，该事件使一个基于索拉纳的代币在数小时内下降了其价值的90％，并涉及涉及阿根廷总统贾维尔·米利（Javier Milei）的欺诈指控。

SOL/USD Technical Outlook Still Remains Bearish

SOL/USD技术前景仍然看跌

From a technical perspective, Solana shows multiple bearish indicators:

从技术角度来看，Solana显示了多个看跌指标：

The key support zone to watch is between $130-$140, with a potential drop to $120 if this level fails. Resistance stands between $160-$180, aligned with previous consolidation areas.

要观看的关键支持区为$ 130- $ 140，如果此水平失败，则可能降至120美元。电阻在160美元至180美元之间，与以前的合并区域保持一致。

Can SOL Price Recover to ATH?

索尔价格可以恢复到ATH吗？

Analysts suggest Solana may take longer to regain bullish momentum compared to other cryptocurrencies due to multiple headwinds:

分析师认为，与其他逆势相比，与其他加密货币相比，Solana可能需要更长的时间来恢复看涨势头：

While the aggressive sell-off has pushed SOL into oversold territory, which could potentially trigger a short-term relief bounce, any sustained recovery would require SOL to reclaim levels above $160 to shift market sentiment in a more positive direction. For now, Solana’s ecosystem participants are closely monitoring key support levels while bracing for additional volatility ahead of the major token unlock event on March 1.

尽管积极的抛售将SOL推向了超售的领土，这可能会引发短期救济反弹，但任何持续的恢复都将要求SOL将高于160美元的水平收回，以将市场情绪转移到更积极的方向上。目前，Solana的生态系统参与者正在密切监视关键支持水平，同时在3月1日的主要代币解锁活动之前为额外的波动提供额外的波动。