Solana（Sol）價格從歷史最高高的50％崩潰，接下來是什麼？

從2025年1月，索拉納（Solana）的原住民代幣（Sol）的歷史最高高點（Sol）跌至144美元，其價值一半。

From its all-time high of $295 hit in January 2025, Solana’s native token (SOL) has dropped to $144, half its value.

從2025年1月，索拉納（Solana）的原住民代幣（Sol）的歷史最高高點（Sol）跌至144美元，其價值一半。

Investors and analysts are concerned about the near-term future of the blockchain as the steep decline has sent SOL/USD to its lowest price level since October 2024.

投資者和分析師擔心區塊鏈的近期未來，因為自2024年10月以來，Sol/USD的急劇下降已將其降低到最低價格。

Solana price analysis

Solana價格分析

Why is Solana Price Crashing?

為什麼索拉娜的價格崩潰？

Several linked elements influencing the Solana ecosystem can help to explain the sharp drop:

影響Solana生態系統的幾個鏈接元素可以幫助解釋急劇的下降：

1. Collapsing On-chain Activity

1。崩潰的鏈活動

From $12 billion in January to $7.13 billion now, Solana’s Total Value Locked (TVL) has plunged sharply. Important decentralized applications have seen notable drop in usage:

從一月份的120億美元到現在的71.3億美元，索拉納的總價值鎖定（TVL）急劇下降。重要的分散應用程序的使用情況顯著下降：

These drops have directly impacted Solana’s on-chain volumes, which plummeted from $97 billion weekly in mid-January to just $7 billion this week.

這些下降直接影響了Solana的鏈卷，該鏈量從1月中旬的每週970億美元下降到本週的70億美元。

2. Liquidity Migration to Other Chains

2。流動性遷移到其他連鎖店

Over the past thirty days, around $500 million in liquidity has been bridged away from Solana to rival blockchains; Ethereum, Sonic, and Arbitrum have benefited most. This migration betrays declining faith in the Solana environment.

在過去的三十天中，大約5億美元的流動性從Solana橋接到了競爭對手的區塊鏈；以太坊，聲音和仲裁都受益最大。這種遷移背叛了對索拉納環境的信念下降。

Miles Deutscher, a crypto analyst, pointed out this change: “Solana’s fee burn dropped to its lowest value of $177,000 in a month,” and remarked that “people are tired of getting burned at the casino, and many are walking away from the tables.”

加密分析師Miles Deutscher指出了這一變化：“ Solana的費用燃燒下降到了一個月的最低價值177,000美元”，並指出：“人們厭倦了在賭場被燒毀，許多人都從桌子上走開了。”

3. Collapse of Solana’s Memecoin Ecosystem

3。Solana的Memecoin生態系統的崩潰

The Solana-based memecoin sector, which previously reached a collective market cap of $25 billion in December 2024, has contracted to $8.3 billion with a further 23% crash occurring in the past 24 hours alone.

總部位於Solana的Memecoin行業先前在2024年12月達到了250億美元的集體市值，僅在過去24小時內就簽約了83億美元，另外23％的墜機事故發生。

After 7.5 million tokens were launched and $550 million in revenue was generated on Pump.fun, most of these speculative assets are now down 80-90% from their peaks.

在泵上發射了750萬個令牌並產生了5.5億美元的收入。

4. Imminent SOL Token Unlock Pressure

4。迫在眉睫的令牌解鎖壓力

With 11.2 million SOL tokens—worth over $2 billion—planned to be freed on March 1, 2025, a big bearish catalyst looms. Representing a 10% annualized inflation rate, over 16.1 million tokens will be produced overall between February and May 2025.

有1,120萬個SOL令牌（超過20億美元）計劃於2025年3月1日釋放，這是一個大的看跌催化劑。代表年度通貨膨脹率10％，將在2月至2025年5月之間總體上產生超過1610萬個令牌。

Many of these tokens were bought at very cheaper ($64) prices during FTX auctions by companies like Galaxy Digital, Pantera Capital, and Figure, who have little motivation to hang in the present market.

這些代幣中的許多是在FTX拍賣過程中以非常便宜（64美元）的價格購買的，例如Galaxy Digital，Pantera Capital和Tigue等公司，他們幾乎沒有動力掛在當今市場上。

Crypto market maker Wintermute has withdrawn over $38 million worth of SOL from Binance, potentially in anticipation of further downward pressure.

加密推銷商Wintermute已從Binance撤回了超過3,800萬美元的Sol，這可能是因為預期進一步的下降壓力。

Are Solana ETF Prospects Fading?

Solana ETF的前景正在褪色嗎？

The drop in SOL price matches declining hopes for the upcoming approval of a Solana ETF in the United States. Applications for SOL-based ETFs have been filed by Franklin Templeton, Grayscale, Bitwise, Canary, 21Shares, and VanEck among several fund issuers

SOL價格下跌匹配的希望下降了希望即將在美國獲得Solana ETF的批准。基於SOL的ETF的申請已由富蘭克林·鄧普頓（Franklin Templeton），灰度，位，金絲雀，21shares和Vaneck提交

But, recent events as the Bybit exchange attack and OKX’s US Department of Justice settlement have muddled the regulatory picture.

但是，最近發生的事件是Bybit Exchange Attack和OKX美國司法部定居點的監管情況。

Overall Crypto Market’s Bearish Mood Weighs on Solana Price

總體加密貨幣市場的看跌情緒與Solana價格有關

Solana’s slide coincides with a larger market downturn for cryptocurrencies; Bitcoin falls from its all-time high above $108,000 to about $86,000. But SOL’s 17% reduction since February 22 greatly outpaces the 10% drop in the wider altcoin market over the same length of time.

Solana的幻燈片與加密貨幣的較大市場低迷相吻合；比特幣的歷史最高高於108,000美元，跌至約86,000美元。但是，自2月22日以來，Sol的減少了17％，超過了相同時間內更廣泛的Altcoin市場下降的10％。

Further souring mood around the Solana ecosystem is the Libra memecoin affair, which saw a Solana-based token drop 90% of its value within hours and spurred charges of fraud involving Argentine President Javier Milei.

天秤座的成員事件是索拉納生態系統周圍的進一步酸味的情緒，該事件使一個基於索拉納的代幣在數小時內下降了其價值的90％，並涉及涉及阿根廷總統賈維爾·米利（ Javier Milei）的欺詐指控。

SOL/USD Technical Outlook Still Remains Bearish

SOL/USD技術前景仍然看跌

From a technical perspective, Solana shows multiple bearish indicators:

從技術角度來看，Solana顯示了多個看跌指標：

The key support zone to watch is between $130-$140, with a potential drop to $120 if this level fails. Resistance stands between $160-$180, aligned with previous consolidation areas.

要觀看的關鍵支持區為$ 130- $ 140，如果此水平失敗，則可能降至120美元。電阻在160美元至180美元之間，與以前的合併區域保持一致。

Can SOL Price Recover to ATH?

索爾價格可以恢復到ATH嗎？

Analysts suggest Solana may take longer to regain bullish momentum compared to other cryptocurrencies due to multiple headwinds:

分析師認為，與其他逆勢相比，與其他加密貨幣相比，Solana可能需要更長的時間來恢復看漲勢頭：

While the aggressive sell-off has pushed SOL into oversold territory, which could potentially trigger a short-term relief bounce, any sustained recovery would require SOL to reclaim levels above $160 to shift market sentiment in a more positive direction. For now, Solana’s ecosystem participants are closely monitoring key support levels while bracing for additional volatility ahead of the major token unlock event on March 1.

儘管積極的拋售將SOL推向了超售的領土，這可能會引發短期救濟反彈，但任何持續的恢復都將要求SOL將高於160美元的水平收回，以將市場情緒轉移到更積極的方向上。目前，Solana的生態系統參與者正在密切監視關鍵支持水平，同時在3月1日的主要代幣解鎖活動之前為額外的波動提供額外的波動。