实现的帽子可以提供有关比特币下一步的提示

链上分析公司的首席执行官CryptoQuant宣布了比特币牛周期的结束，但这位分析师提供了一个对立面。

The CEO of on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant has declared that the Bitcoin bull cycle could be over, but this analyst has provided a counterpoint.

链上分析公司CryptoQuant的首席执行官宣布比特币牛周期可能已经结束，但是这位分析师提供了一个对立面。

The “Realized Cap” refers to an on-chain capitalization model that assumes any token in circulation’s actual value is the spot price at which it was last transacted on the blockchain.

“已实现的上限”是指一个链资本化模型，该模型假设流通的实际价值中的任何令牌是最后一次在区块链上进行交易的现货价格。

Last transaction price of any coin is nothing, but the price at which its investor purchased it, so the Realized Cap measures the sum of the cost basis of all coins in the circulating supply. In other words, the model represents the amount of capital that the holders as a whole have invested into the cryptocurrency.

任何硬币的最后交易价格都不是什么，而是其投资者购买的价格，因此实现的上限衡量了循环供应中所有硬币的成本基础的总和。换句话说，该模型代表持有人整体投资加密货币的资本数量。

This model is in contrast to the Market Cap, which simply sums up the supply at the current spot price, indicating the value that the investors are holding in the present.

该模型与市值形成鲜明对比，后者只是以当前的现货价格总结了供应，表明投资者目前所拥有的价值。

Whenever the investors buy coins, the Realized Cap goes up by the exact amount as what they bought for. The same, however, doesn’t hold true for the Market Cap. Depending on various market conditions, an increase in the Realized Cap can trigger an increase in the Market Cap that’s smaller, larger, or equal in scale.

每当投资者购买硬币时，实现的上限就会按照他们购买的确切数量上升。但是，对于市值，情况并非如此。根据各种市场条件，实现的上限的增加可能会触发较小，较大或规模相等的市值的增加。

According to the CryptoQuant founder, which of these ways the Market Cap is reacting to changes in the Realized Cap can provide bullish or bearish signals for BTC.

据该加密创始人称，这些市场上限对已实现的上限变化做出反应的方式可以为BTC提供看涨或看跌信号。

From the above chart, it’s visible that the growth rate difference between the Market Cap and Realized Cap has turned negative recently. This means that capital inflows aren’t able to raise the price, which is a signal that has historically coincided with bearish periods for Bitcoin.

从上图来看，可以看到市场上限和实现CAP之间的增长率差异最近变成负面。这意味着资本流入无法提高价格，这是一个与比特币的看跌时期相吻合的信号。

While this could indeed suggest that the bull market may be over, another analyst, James Van Straten, has provided a different perspective. Here is the chart that the analyst has shared as a counter to Young Ju, displaying the trend in the BTC Realized Cap, as well as its drawdown percentage, over the coin’s history:

尽管这确实表明牛市可能已经结束，但另一位分析师詹姆斯·范·斯特拉滕（James Van Straten）提供了不同的观点。这是分析师与年轻JU的反击的图表，在硬币的历史上展示了BTC实现的趋势以及其缩减百分比：

As is apparent from the chart, the Realized Cap has historically seen a strong drawdown during bear markets. This happens as a result of investors capitulating at lower prices than they bought at, thus repricing the supply down.

从图表上可以看出，实现的上限在历史上已经在熊市中看到了强劲的下降。这是由于投资者以比他们购买的低价格投降的原因，从而将供应量降低了。

So far, the Realized Cap hasn't seen any significant drawdowns, despite the fact that the price has plunged recently. This would imply that the investors still hold a degree of confidence in Bitcoin. Not just that, the Realized Cap has in fact continued its upwards trajectory recently, a sign that capital inflows haven’t let off.

到目前为止，尽管价格最近下跌，但已实现的上限尚未看到任何重大的下降。这意味着投资者仍然对比特币充满信心。不仅如此，实际上，实现的上限最近一直在继续向上轨迹，这表明资本流入并没有放松。

“Bear markets don't usually start with confidence and inflows,” notes Van Straten. Only time will be able to answer for sure now whether BTC has transitioned into a bear or not.

范·斯特拉滕（Van Straten）指出：“熊市通常不会从信心和流入开始。”现在，只有时间才能确定BTC是否已过渡到熊。

BTC Price

BTC价格

Bitcoin has kicked off the new week with a crash of almost 7%, which has brought its price down to $76,500.

比特币已经开始了新的一周，撞车事故近7％，这使其价格下降到76,500美元。