實現的帽子可以提供有關比特幣下一步的提示

鏈上分析公司的首席執行官CryptoQuant宣布了比特幣牛週期的結束，但這位分析師提供了一個對立面。

The CEO of on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant has declared that the Bitcoin bull cycle could be over, but this analyst has provided a counterpoint.

鏈上分析公司CryptoQuant的首席執行官宣布比特幣牛週期可能已經結束，但是這位分析師提供了一個對立面。

The “Realized Cap” refers to an on-chain capitalization model that assumes any token in circulation’s actual value is the spot price at which it was last transacted on the blockchain.

“已實現的上限”是指一個鏈資本化模型，該模型假設流通的實際價值中的任何令牌是最後一次在區塊鏈上進行交易的現貨價格。

Last transaction price of any coin is nothing, but the price at which its investor purchased it, so the Realized Cap measures the sum of the cost basis of all coins in the circulating supply. In other words, the model represents the amount of capital that the holders as a whole have invested into the cryptocurrency.

任何硬幣的最後交易價格都不是什麼，而是其投資者購買的價格，因此實現的上限衡量了循環供應中所有硬幣的成本基礎的總和。換句話說，該模型代表持有人整體投資加密貨幣的資本數量。

This model is in contrast to the Market Cap, which simply sums up the supply at the current spot price, indicating the value that the investors are holding in the present.

該模型與市值形成鮮明對比，後者只是以當前的現貨價格總結了供應，表明投資者目前所擁有的價值。

Whenever the investors buy coins, the Realized Cap goes up by the exact amount as what they bought for. The same, however, doesn’t hold true for the Market Cap. Depending on various market conditions, an increase in the Realized Cap can trigger an increase in the Market Cap that’s smaller, larger, or equal in scale.

每當投資者購買硬幣時，實現的上限就會按照他們購買的確切數量上升。但是，對於市值，情況並非如此。根據各種市場條件，實現的上限的增加可能會觸發較小，較大或規模相等的市值的增加。

According to the CryptoQuant founder, which of these ways the Market Cap is reacting to changes in the Realized Cap can provide bullish or bearish signals for BTC.

據該加密創始人稱，這些市場上限對已實現的上限變化做出反應的方式可以為BTC提供看漲或看跌信號。

From the above chart, it’s visible that the growth rate difference between the Market Cap and Realized Cap has turned negative recently. This means that capital inflows aren’t able to raise the price, which is a signal that has historically coincided with bearish periods for Bitcoin.

從上圖來看，可以看到市場上限和實現CAP之間的增長率差異最近變成負面。這意味著資本流入無法提高價格，這是一個與比特幣的看跌時期相吻合的信號。

While this could indeed suggest that the bull market may be over, another analyst, James Van Straten, has provided a different perspective. Here is the chart that the analyst has shared as a counter to Young Ju, displaying the trend in the BTC Realized Cap, as well as its drawdown percentage, over the coin’s history:

儘管這確實表明牛市可能已經結束，但另一位分析師詹姆斯·範·斯特拉滕（James Van Straten）提供了不同的觀點。這是分析師與年輕JU的反擊的圖表，在硬幣的歷史上展示了BTC實現的趨勢以及其縮減百分比：

As is apparent from the chart, the Realized Cap has historically seen a strong drawdown during bear markets. This happens as a result of investors capitulating at lower prices than they bought at, thus repricing the supply down.

從圖表上可以看出，實現的上限在歷史上已經在熊市中看到了強勁的下降。這是由於投資者以比他們購買的低價格投降的原因，從而將供應量降低了。

So far, the Realized Cap hasn't seen any significant drawdowns, despite the fact that the price has plunged recently. This would imply that the investors still hold a degree of confidence in Bitcoin. Not just that, the Realized Cap has in fact continued its upwards trajectory recently, a sign that capital inflows haven’t let off.

到目前為止，儘管價格最近下跌，但已實現的上限尚未看到任何重大的下降。這意味著投資者仍然對比特幣充滿信心。不僅如此，實際上，實現的上限最近一直在繼續向上軌跡，這表明資本流入並沒有放鬆。

“Bear markets don't usually start with confidence and inflows,” notes Van Straten. Only time will be able to answer for sure now whether BTC has transitioned into a bear or not.

範·斯特拉滕（Van Straten）指出：“熊市通常不會從信心和流入開始。”現在，只有時間才能確定BTC是否已過渡到熊。

BTC Price

BTC價格

Bitcoin has kicked off the new week with a crash of almost 7%, which has brought its price down to $76,500.

比特幣已經開始了新的一周，撞車事故近7％，這使其價格下降到76,500美元。