新比特币投资者的已实现上限可能暗示周期结束

一位量化分析师指出，比特币指标中形成的一种模式可能意味着当前牛市周期的结束可能并不遥远。

A quant has observed a pattern forming in a Bitcoin indicator, which may suggest that the current bull cycle could be nearing its conclusion.

一位量化分析师观察到比特币指标正在形成一种模式，这可能表明当前的牛市周期可能已接近尾声。

Fresh Capital Inflows Into Bitcoin Hint At Where We Are In The Cycle

新的资本流入比特币暗示我们处于周期的哪个阶段

An analyst at CryptoQuant recently discussed the historical trend in fresh capital inflows into the Bitcoin sector and what it might indicate for the current cycle.

CryptoQuant 的一位分析师最近讨论了新资本流入比特币领域的历史趋势，以及它对当前周期的暗示。

The on-chain indicator of relevance here is the “Realized Cap,” which measures the cryptocurrency's total value by assuming that the value of each coin in the supply is equal to the price at which it was last transacted on the blockchain.

这里相关的链上指标是“已实现上限”，它通过假设供应中每种代币的价值等于其最后在区块链上交易的价格来衡量加密货币的总价值。

For any coin, its last transaction is likely to represent the last time that it changed hands, so the price at its time could be considered to be its current cost basis. Since the Realized Cap sums of this value for the entire supply, it essentially provides a measure of the total amount of capital that investors have put into BTC.

对于任何代币来说，它的最后一次交易可能代表它最后一次转手，因此当时的价格可以被认为是其当前的成本基础。由于已实现上限是整个供应量的总和，因此它本质上提供了投资者投入 BTC 的资本总额的衡量标准。

Changes in the indicator, therefore, correlate to the amount of capital flowing into or out of the market. One way to visualize this is by looking at the trend in the Realized Cap of the young coin-age ranges.

因此，该指标的变化与流入或流出市场的资本量相关。直观地体现这一点的一种方法是查看年轻币龄范围的已实现上限的趋势。

Here's a chart shared by the quant, showing how the percentage of the total Bitcoin Realized Cap occupied by the three youngest age bands has varied throughout the cryptocurrency's history:

下面是这位量化分析师分享的图表，显示了三个最年轻年龄段所占比特币已实现总市值的百分比在整个加密货币历史中的变化情况：

The chart shows that the combined Bitcoin Realized Cap share of the 0 days to 1 day, 1 day to 1 week, and 1 week to 1 month age bands has spiked recently, suggesting that a large portion of the coins were purchased by investors during the past month.

该图表显示，0 天至 1 天、1 天至 1 周和 1 周至 1 个月年龄段的比特币已实现上限份额最近飙升，这表明投资者在过去一个月。

This naturally indicates increased capital inflows into the sector. As the analyst has highlighted in the chart, BTC has historically seen peak inflows coincide with peaks in the price itself. In the last few cycles, this happened when the Realized Cap of these age bands made up for a much more substantial percentage of the market's total than the current one.

这自然表明该行业的资本流入有所增加。正如分析师在图表中强调的那样，从历史上看，比特币的流入峰值与价格本身的峰值一致。在过去的几个周期中，当这些年龄段的已实现上限在市场总量中所占的比例比当前要高得多时，就会发生这种情况。

However, this doesn't necessarily mean that the ongoing Bitcoin bull run has much more to go. It appears that the long-term trend in the metric has been that of a decline, with each top occurring at a lower value than the last.

然而，这并不一定意味着正在进行的比特币牛市还会有更多的发展。该指标的长期趋势似乎是下降，每个顶部的值都低于上一个。

If the downward trajectory is extrapolated for the latest cycle, then the cryptocurrency may not have too much room to run after all. It only remains to be seen when the peak inflows occur, though, as in the past, there were usually multiple spikes before the one that led to the cycle's completion.

如果推断最新周期的下行轨迹，那么加密货币可能根本没有太大的运行空间。不过，与过去一样，只有在流入峰值出现时，情况才有待观察，在导致周期完成的峰值之前通常会出现多个峰值。

BTC Price

比特币价格

At the moment, Bitcoin's price is around $99,100, showing an increase of over 6% in its value over the last seven days.

目前，比特币的价格约为 99,100 美元，过去 7 天其价值上涨了 6% 以上。