新比特幣投資者的已實現上限可能暗示週期結束

一位量化分析師指出，比特幣指標中形成的一種模式可能意味著當前牛市週期的結束可能並不遙遠。

A quant has observed a pattern forming in a Bitcoin indicator, which may suggest that the current bull cycle could be nearing its conclusion.

一位量化分析師觀察到比特幣指標形成的模式，這可能表明當前的牛市週期可能已接近尾聲。

Fresh Capital Inflows Into Bitcoin Hint At Where We Are In The Cycle

新的資本流入比特幣暗示我們處於週期的哪個階段

An analyst at CryptoQuant recently discussed the historical trend in fresh capital inflows into the Bitcoin sector and what it might indicate for the current cycle.

CryptoQuant 的一位分析師最近討論了新資本流入比特幣領域的歷史趨勢，以及它對當前週期的暗示。

The on-chain indicator of relevance here is the “Realized Cap,” which measures the cryptocurrency's total value by assuming that the value of each coin in the supply is equal to the price at which it was last transacted on the blockchain.

這裡相關的鏈上指標是“已實現上限”，它通過假設供應中每種代幣的價值等於其最後在區塊鏈上交易的價格來衡量加密貨幣的總價值。

For any coin, its last transaction is likely to represent the last time that it changed hands, so the price at its time could be considered to be its current cost basis. Since the Realized Cap sums of this value for the entire supply, it essentially provides a measure of the total amount of capital that investors have put into BTC.

對於任何代幣來說，它的最後一次交易可能代表它最後一次轉手，因此當時的價格可以被認為是其當前的成本基礎。由於已實現上限是整個供應量的總和，因此它本質上提供了投資者投入 BTC 的資本總額的衡量標準。

Changes in the indicator, therefore, correlate to the amount of capital flowing into or out of the market. One way to visualize this is by looking at the trend in the Realized Cap of the young coin-age ranges.

因此，此指標的變化與流入或流出市場的資本量有關。直觀地體現這一點的一種方法是查看年輕幣齡範圍的已實現上限的趨勢。

Here's a chart shared by the quant, showing how the percentage of the total Bitcoin Realized Cap occupied by the three youngest age bands has varied throughout the cryptocurrency's history:

以下是這位量化分析師分享的圖表，顯示了三個最年輕年齡層所佔比特幣已實現總市值的百分比在整個加密貨幣歷史中的變化情況：

The chart shows that the combined Bitcoin Realized Cap share of the 0 days to 1 day, 1 day to 1 week, and 1 week to 1 month age bands has spiked recently, suggesting that a large portion of the coins were purchased by investors during the past month.

該圖表顯示，0 天至 1 天、1 天至 1 週和 1 週至 1 個月年齡層的比特幣已實現上限份額最近飆升，這表明投資者在過去一個月。

This naturally indicates increased capital inflows into the sector. As the analyst has highlighted in the chart, BTC has historically seen peak inflows coincide with peaks in the price itself. In the last few cycles, this happened when the Realized Cap of these age bands made up for a much more substantial percentage of the market's total than the current one.

這自然表明該行業的資本流入有所增加。正如分析師在圖表中所強調的那樣，從歷史上看，比特幣的流入峰值與價格本身的峰值一致。在過去的幾個週期中，當這些年齡層的已實現上限在市場總量中所佔的比例比當前要高得多時，就會發生這種情況。

However, this doesn't necessarily mean that the ongoing Bitcoin bull run has much more to go. It appears that the long-term trend in the metric has been that of a decline, with each top occurring at a lower value than the last.

然而，這並不一定意味著正在進行的比特幣牛市還會有更多的發展。該指標的長期趨勢似乎是下降，每個頂部的值都低於上一個。

If the downward trajectory is extrapolated for the latest cycle, then the cryptocurrency may not have too much room to run after all. It only remains to be seen when the peak inflows occur, though, as in the past, there were usually multiple spikes before the one that led to the cycle's completion.

如果推斷最新周期的下行軌跡，那麼加密貨幣可能根本沒有太大的運作空間。不過，與過去一樣，只有在流入峰值出現時，情況才有待觀察，在導致週期完成的峰值之前通常會出現多個峰值。

BTC Price

比特幣價格

At the moment, Bitcoin's price is around $99,100, showing an increase of over 6% in its value over the last seven days.

目前，比特幣的價格約為 99,100 美元，過去 7 天其價值上漲了 6% 以上。