美国总统选举可能决定这些加密货币 ETF 的命运

11 月 5 日的美国总统大选可能会决定六只以上拟议的加密货币交易所交易基金 (ETF) 的命运

The upcoming United States presidential election on Nov. 5 could decide the fate of seven proposed cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that are awaiting approval from regulators.

即将于 11 月 5 日举行的美国总统大选可能会决定七只拟议的加密货币交易所交易基金 (ETF) 的命运，这些基金正在等待监管机构的批准。

In 2024, several asset managers filed regulatory applications to launch ETFs that would hold altcoins, such as Solana (SOL) , XRP (XRP) and Litecoin (LTC) , among others.

2024 年，多家资产管理公司向监管机构提出申请，推出持有山寨币的 ETF，例如 Solana (SOL)、XRP (XRP) 和 Litecoin (LTC) 等。

Issuers are also awaiting approval for several planned crypto index ETFs designed to hold diverse baskets of tokens.

发行人还在等待多个计划中的旨在持有不同篮子代币的加密货币指数 ETF 的批准。

In effect, these filings are “call options on a Trump victory” in the US presidential race, Eric Balchunas, an ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, said on Oct. 25.

彭博资讯 (Bloomberg Intelligence) 的 ETF 分析师埃里克·巴尔丘纳斯 (Eric Balchunas) 10 月 25 日表示，实际上，这些文件是“特朗普在美国总统竞选中获胜的看涨期权”。

Three in four crypto owners said a candidate’s crypto policy will impact how they vote. Source: Gemini

四分之三的加密货币所有者表示，候选人的加密货币政策将影响他们的投票方式。来源：双子座

The election pits Republican nominee Donald Trump — who has said he wants to make America “the crypto capital of the world” — against Democrat Kamala Sen. Harris, who has been comparatively quiet on the industry.

此次选举的对手是共和党候选人唐纳德·特朗普——他曾表示希望让美国成为“世界加密货币之都”——而民主党参议员卡马拉参议员哈里斯则对该行业相对安静。

Under President Joe Biden — Vice President Sen. Harris’s boss — the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has taken an aggressive regulatory stance toward crypto, bringing upward of 100 regulatory actions against industry companies.

在总统乔·拜登（副总统参议员哈里斯的老板）的领导下，美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 对加密货币采取了积极的监管立场，对行业公司采取了超过 100 项监管行动。

“If you see a Trump victory, watch this space, and if you see a Sen. Harris victory, just forget about it for a couple of years,” Balchunas said during the Plan B Forum conference in Lugano, Switzerland.

巴尔丘纳斯在瑞士卢加诺举行的 B 计划论坛会议上表示：“如果你看到特朗普获胜，请关注这个空间，如果你看到参议员哈里斯获胜，请忘记它几年。”

Here’s what to expect from crypto ETF issuers if Trump wins on Nov. 5.

如果特朗普在 11 月 5 日获胜，加密货币 ETF 发行人将会做出以下预期。

BTC and ETH lead heavily in terms of market capitalization. Source: CoinGecko

BTC 和 ETH 在市值方面遥遥领先。来源：CoinGecko

Altcoin ETFs

山寨币 ETF

In June, fund issuers VanEck and 21Shares each filed an S-1 to register SOL ETFs with the SEC.

6 月，基金发行人 VanEck 和 21Shares 分别提交了 S-1 申请，向 SEC 注册 SOL ETF。

On Oct. 30, crypto asset manager Canary Capital followed suit, filing for a SOL ETF of its own.

10 月 30 日，加密资产管理公司 Canary Capital 紧随其后，申请了自己的 SOL ETF。

The SEC greenlighted spot Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) ETFs to list in January and July, respectively.

美国证券交易委员会批准现货比特币 (BTC) 和以太币 (ETH) ETF 分别于 1 月和 7 月上市。

Even so, “it’s unlikely that the approval of ETH will result in a large wave of approvals” for other types of crypto ETFs, Ophelia Snyder, co-founder and president of 21.co, told Cointelegraph in June. 21.co is the owner of crypto ETF issuer 21Shares.

即便如此，21.co 联合创始人兼总裁 Ophelia Snyder 在 6 月份告诉 Cointelegraph，“ETH 的批准不太可能导致其他类型的加密 ETF 获得大量批准”。 21.co 是加密 ETF 发行人 21Shares 的所有者。

The SEC has repeatedly asserted that SOL — unlike BTC and ETH — is a security, but plans for a SOL ETF listing are “still in play,” Matthew Sigel, VanEck's head of digital assets research, said in August.

VanEck 数字资产研究主管 Matthew Sigel 在 8 月份表示，SEC 一再声称 SOL 与 BTC 和 ETH 不同，是一种证券，但 SOL ETF 上市的计划“仍在进行中”。

“VanEck believes SOL is a commodity, much like BTC and ETH,” Sigel said. “We remain committed to advocating this position […] to the appropriate regulators.”

“VanEck 认为 SOL 是一种商品，就像 BTC 和 ETH 一样，”Sigel 说。 “我们仍然致力于向适当的监管机构倡导这一立场[……]。”

Meanwhile, in October and November, Canary Capital, Bitwise and 21Shares each filed for proposed XRP ETFs. Canary Capital also filed to register a spot LTC ETF.

与此同时，10 月和 11 月，Canary Capital、Bitwise 和 21Shares 分别提交了拟议的 XRP ETF 申请。 Canary Capital还申请注册现货LTC ETF。

GDLC’s holdings. Source: Grayscale.

GDLC 的持股。来源：灰度。

Crypto Index ETFs

加密指数 ETF

On Oct. 29, securities exchange NYSE Arca asked the SEC for permission to list shares of Grayscale Digital Large Cap Fund (GDLC).

10 月 29 日，证券交易所 NYSE Arca 向 SEC 请求允许 Grayscale Digital Large Cap Fund（GDLC）的股票上市。

“[T]he proposed rule change, if adopted, would represent the first national securities exchange ruleset permitting the listing and trading of shares of multi-crypto asset [ETFs],” Grayscale said.

Grayscale 表示：“拟议的规则变更如果获得通过，将成为第一个允许多加密资产 [ETF] 股票上市和交易的国家证券交易所规则集。”

The fund holds a crypto index portfolio comprising BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP and Avalanche (AVAX) .

该基金持有由 BTC、ETH、SOL、XRP 和 Avalanche (AVAX) 组成的加密指数投资组合。

Grayscale faces competition from other proposed index funds, including those from asset managers Hashdex and Franklin Templeton, but GDLC is unique in including altcoins such as SOL, AVAX and XRP.

Grayscale 面临着来自其他拟议指数基金的竞争，包括资产管理公司 Hashdex 和 Franklin Templeton 的指数基金，但 GDLC 的独特之处在于包含了 SOL、AVAX 和 XRP 等山寨币。

Crypto index ETFs are currently limited to BTC and ETH because those are the only digital assets the SEC has authorized to be included in ETFs so far, Katalin Tischhauser, head of investment research at crypto bank Sygnum, told Cointelegraph in August.

加密货币银行 Sygnum 投资研究主管 Katalin Tischhauser 在 8 月份告诉 Cointelegraph，加密指数 ETF 目前仅限于 BTC 和 ETH，因为这是 SEC 迄今为止授权纳入 ETF 的唯一数字资产。

“The next logical step is index ETFs because indices are efficient for investors — just like how people buy the S&P 500 in an ETF. This will be the same in crypto,” Tischhauser said.

“下一个合乎逻辑的步骤是指数 ETF，因为指数对投资者来说是有效的——就像人们通过 ETF 购买标普 500 指数一样。这在加密领域也是一样的，”Tischhauser 说。