美國總統選舉可能決定這些加密貨幣 ETF 的命運

11 月 5 日的美國總統大選可能會決定六隻以上擬議的加密貨幣交易所交易基金 (ETF) 的命運

The upcoming United States presidential election on Nov. 5 could decide the fate of seven proposed cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that are awaiting approval from regulators.

即將於 11 月 5 日舉行的美國總統大選可能會決定七隻擬議的加密貨幣交易所交易基金 (ETF) 的命運，這些基金正在等待監管機構的批准。

In 2024, several asset managers filed regulatory applications to launch ETFs that would hold altcoins, such as Solana (SOL) , XRP (XRP) and Litecoin (LTC) , among others.

2024 年，多家資產管理公司向監管機構提出申請，推出持有山寨幣的 ETF，例如 Solana (SOL)、XRP (XRP) 和 Litecoin (LTC) 等。

Issuers are also awaiting approval for several planned crypto index ETFs designed to hold diverse baskets of tokens.

發行人還在等待多個計劃中的旨在持有不同籃子代幣的加密貨幣指數 ETF 的批准。

In effect, these filings are “call options on a Trump victory” in the US presidential race, Eric Balchunas, an ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, said on Oct. 25.

彭博資訊 (Bloomberg Intelligence) 的 ETF 分析師 Eric Balchunas 10 月 25 日表示，實際上，這些文件是「川普在美國總統競選中獲勝的看漲期權」。

Three in four crypto owners said a candidate’s crypto policy will impact how they vote. Source: Gemini

四分之三的加密貨幣所有者表示，候選人的加密貨幣政策將影響他們投票的方式。來源：雙子座

The election pits Republican nominee Donald Trump — who has said he wants to make America “the crypto capital of the world” — against Democrat Kamala Sen. Harris, who has been comparatively quiet on the industry.

這次選舉的對手是共和黨候選人唐納德·川普——他曾表示希望讓美國成為「世界加密貨幣之都」——而民主黨參議員卡馬拉參議員哈里斯則對該行業相對安靜。

Under President Joe Biden — Vice President Sen. Harris’s boss — the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has taken an aggressive regulatory stance toward crypto, bringing upward of 100 regulatory actions against industry companies.

在總統拜登（副總統參議員哈里斯的老闆）的領導下，美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 對加密貨幣採取了積極的監管立場，對行業公司採取了超過 100 項監管行動。

“If you see a Trump victory, watch this space, and if you see a Sen. Harris victory, just forget about it for a couple of years,” Balchunas said during the Plan B Forum conference in Lugano, Switzerland.

巴爾丘納斯在瑞士盧加諾舉行的 B 計劃論壇會議上表示：“如果你看到特朗普獲勝，請關注這個空間，如果你看到參議員哈里斯獲勝，請忘記它幾年。”

Here’s what to expect from crypto ETF issuers if Trump wins on Nov. 5.

如果川普在 11 月 5 日獲勝，加密貨幣 ETF 發行人將會做出以下預期。

BTC and ETH lead heavily in terms of market capitalization. Source: CoinGecko

BTC 和 ETH 在市值方面遙遙領先。來源：CoinGecko

Altcoin ETFs

山寨幣 ETF

In June, fund issuers VanEck and 21Shares each filed an S-1 to register SOL ETFs with the SEC.

6 月，基金發行人 VanEck 和 21Shares 各自提交了 S-1 申請，向 SEC 註冊 SOL ETF。

On Oct. 30, crypto asset manager Canary Capital followed suit, filing for a SOL ETF of its own.

10 月 30 日，加密資產管理公司 Canary Capital 緊隨其後，申請了自己的 SOL ETF。

The SEC greenlighted spot Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) ETFs to list in January and July, respectively.

美國證券交易委員會批准現貨比特幣 (BTC) 和以太幣 (ETH) ETF 分別於 1 月和 7 月上市。

Even so, “it’s unlikely that the approval of ETH will result in a large wave of approvals” for other types of crypto ETFs, Ophelia Snyder, co-founder and president of 21.co, told Cointelegraph in June. 21.co is the owner of crypto ETF issuer 21Shares.

即便如此，21.co 聯合創始人兼總裁 Ophelia Snyder 在 6 月告訴 Cointelegraph，「ETH 的批准不太可能導致其他類型的加密 ETF 獲得大量批准」。 21.co 是加密 ETF 發行人 21Shares 的所有者。

The SEC has repeatedly asserted that SOL — unlike BTC and ETH — is a security, but plans for a SOL ETF listing are “still in play,” Matthew Sigel, VanEck's head of digital assets research, said in August.

VanEck 數位資產研究主管 Matthew Sigel 在 8 月表示，SEC 一再聲稱 SOL 與 BTC 和 ETH 不同，是一種證券，但 SOL ETF 上市的計劃「仍在進行中」。

“VanEck believes SOL is a commodity, much like BTC and ETH,” Sigel said. “We remain committed to advocating this position […] to the appropriate regulators.”

「VanEck 認為 SOL 是一種商品，就像 BTC 和 ETH 一樣，」Sigel 說。 “我們仍然致力於向適當的監管機構倡導這一立場[……]。”

Meanwhile, in October and November, Canary Capital, Bitwise and 21Shares each filed for proposed XRP ETFs. Canary Capital also filed to register a spot LTC ETF.

同時，10 月和 11 月，Canary Capital、Bitwise 和 21Shares 分別提交了擬議的 XRP ETF 申請。 Canary Capital也申請註冊現貨LTC ETF。

GDLC’s holdings. Source: Grayscale.

GDLC 的持股。來源：灰階。

Crypto Index ETFs

加密指數 ETF

On Oct. 29, securities exchange NYSE Arca asked the SEC for permission to list shares of Grayscale Digital Large Cap Fund (GDLC).

10 月 29 日，證券交易所 NYSE Arca 向 SEC 要求允許 Grayscale Digital Large Cap Fund（GDLC）的股票上市。

“[T]he proposed rule change, if adopted, would represent the first national securities exchange ruleset permitting the listing and trading of shares of multi-crypto asset [ETFs],” Grayscale said.

Grayscale 表示：“擬議的規則變更如果獲得通過，將成為第一個允許多加密資產 [ETF] 股票上市和交易的國家證券交易所規則集。”

The fund holds a crypto index portfolio comprising BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP and Avalanche (AVAX) .

該基金持有由 BTC、ETH、SOL、XRP 和 Avalanche (AVAX) 組成的加密指數投資組合。

Grayscale faces competition from other proposed index funds, including those from asset managers Hashdex and Franklin Templeton, but GDLC is unique in including altcoins such as SOL, AVAX and XRP.

Grayscale 面臨其他擬議指數基金的競爭，包括資產管理公司 Hashdex 和 Franklin Templeton 的指數基金，但 GDLC 的獨特之處在於包含了 SOL、AVAX 和 XRP 等山寨幣。

Crypto index ETFs are currently limited to BTC and ETH because those are the only digital assets the SEC has authorized to be included in ETFs so far, Katalin Tischhauser, head of investment research at crypto bank Sygnum, told Cointelegraph in August.

加密貨幣銀行 Sygnum 投資研究主管 Katalin Tischhauser 在 8 月告訴 Cointelegraph，加密指數 ETF 目前僅限於 BTC 和 ETH，因為這是 SEC 迄今為止授權納入 ETF 的唯一數位資產。

“The next logical step is index ETFs because indices are efficient for investors — just like how people buy the S&P 500 in an ETF. This will be the same in crypto,” Tischhauser said.

「下一個合乎邏輯的步驟是指數 ETF，因為指數對投資者來說是有效的——就像人們透過 ETF 購買標準普爾 500 指數一樣。這在加密領域也是一樣的，」Tischhauser 說。