特朗普总统的新互惠关税预计将引发美国衰退

包括股票和加密在内的全球市场正在经历大量波动和低迷。

President Trump's new reciprocal tariffs are predicted to trigger a U.S. recession by late 2025, with rising inflation and unemployment.

预计特朗普总统的新互惠关税将在2025年底之前引发美国衰退，并随着通货膨胀和失业的增加。

Global markets, including equities and crypto, are experiencing significant volatility and downturns.

包括股票和加密在内的全球市场正在经历大量波动和低迷。

Experts are advising investors to consider safe-haven assets like gold and Bitcoin amidst the predicted economic instability.

专家们建议投资者在预测的经济不稳定中考虑避风港资产，例如黄金和比特币。

The US economy is heading into rough territory, as major bank JPMorgan predicts a recession by the end of 2025. The main culprit? President Trump’s aggressive new reciprocal tariffs.

正如摩根大岸主要银行预测到2025年底的衰退一样，美国经济正进入粗糙的领土。主要的罪魁祸首？特朗普总统积极进取的新互惠关税。

These tariffs are designed to fix long-standing trade imbalances by targeting countries with large trade surpluses against the US, such as India. More tariff hikes are reportedly on the way.

这些关税旨在通过针对针对美国（例如印度）的贸易盈余的国家来解决长期的贸易失衡。据报道，更多的关税远足正在途中。

JPMorgan predicts that the US GDP will contract in 2025. Michael Feroli, the bank’s chief US economist, warns that the pressure from these new tariffs could push the country into a recession.

摩根大通预测，美国GDP将在2025年签约。该银行首席经济学家迈克尔·费罗利（Michael Feroli）警告说，这些新关税的压力可能会使该国陷入衰退。

During the downturn, unemployment is expected to rise to 5.3%, and the administration’s efforts to lower the deficit will likely be stalled.

在低迷期间，预计失业率将上升到5.3％，政府降低赤字的努力可能会停滞不前。

Fed Chair Jerome Powell also expressed concern, saying the tariffs could impact the economy more than expected.

美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）也表示关注，称关税可能会影响经济超出预期。

Larger tariffs would likely lead to higher inflation and slower growth, while smaller tariffs might spur some improvement in the economy.

较大的关税可能会导致通货膨胀率更高，增长速度较慢，而较小的关税可能会刺激经济的一些改善。

JPMorgan expects inflation to reach 4.4% by the end of the year, up from 2.8% in February. The bank believes the Fed will start cutting interest rates in June and continue gradually until January 2026, eventually lowering rates to 2.75%-3%.

摩根大通预计，到今年年底，通货膨胀率将达到4.4％，高于2月的2.8％。该银行认为，美联储将在6月开始降低利率，并持续到2026年1月，最终将利率降低至2.75％-3％。

However, Powell has suggested a more cautious approach, saying there’s no need to rush despite the growing pressure.

但是，鲍威尔提出了一种更加谨慎的方法，他说尽管压力越来越大，但不需要急忙。

Also Read: Robert Kiyosaki Says the Market Crash Is Just Getting Started, Here’s What Next?

另请阅读：罗伯特·基亚萨基（Robert Kiyosaki）说，市场崩溃才刚刚开始，接下来是什么？

Global Markets Take a Hit as Tariffs Spark Reactions

当关税激发反应时，全球市场受到打击

The global economy is now feeling the pressure of America’s trade war. China has already responded by imposing a 34% tax on US goods, threatening to escalate the trade war further.

现在，全球经济正在感受到美国贸易战的压力。中国已经对美国商品征收34％的税，威胁要进一步升级贸易战。

Other countries are either threatening to retaliate or preparing for tough negotiations.

其他国家要么威胁要进行报复，要么准备进行艰苦的谈判。

China’s move shook the markets, triggering a major sell-off. Trump’s trade war has already wiped out more than $5 trillion from the US stock market.

中国的举动震撼了市场，引发了重大抛售。特朗普的贸易战争已经从美国股市中消除了超过5万亿美元。

And JPMorgan isn’t alone in sounding the alarm. Barclays expects a downturn next year, Citi sees just 0.1% growth, and UBS has cut its forecast to 0.4%.

摩根大通在发出警报时并不孤单。巴克莱预计明年会下滑，花旗的增长仅为0.1％，瑞银将其预测降低到0.4％。

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney criticized the US for backing away from its global leadership role.

加拿大总理马克·卡尼（Mark Carney）批评美国退出其全球领导职务。

“The world economy is different today than it was yesterday,” he said while announcing new countermeasures from Canada.

他在宣布加拿大的新对策时说：“今天的世界经济与昨天不同。”

The crypto market dropped sharply after Trump’s tariff announcement, as investors looked for safer options like gold.

在特朗普的关税宣布之后，加密货币市场急剧下降，因为投资者正在寻找像黄金这样的更安全的选择。

Bitcoin briefly touched $88,500 before falling below key support levels. Major altcoins like XRP, Solana, and Dogecoin dropped as much as 4.5%. US crypto-related stocks also fell due to the sweeping tariff policy.

比特币短暂触摸了$ 88,500，然后跌至关键支持水平。 XRP，Solana和Dogecoin等主要的AltCoins下降了多达4.5％。由于广泛的关税政策，美国与加密相关的股票也下跌。

Fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) are growing in the crypto market. Since February 1, Bitcoin has dropped 10%, and Ethereum is down 20%, as worries about the impact of tariffs on blockchain growth and adoption persist.

恐惧，不确定性和怀疑（FUD）在加密市场中正在增长。自2月1日以来，比特币下降了10％，以太坊下降了20％，因为担心关税对区块链增长和采用的影响持续存在。

However, XRP rose 2% after the SEC officially dropped its case against Ripple, bringing some relief to investors who have endured years of regulatory uncertainty.

但是，SEC正式对Ripple的案件正式撤销了XRP的增长2％，这使经历了多年监管不确定性的投资者有所缓解。

The market is divided on how Bitcoin will perform in this environment. Some see it as “digital gold,” a hedge against inflation and instability.

在这种环境下，市场对比特币的表现有所分歧。有些人将其视为“数字黄金”，这是对通货膨胀和不稳定的对冲。

If the Fed cuts interest rates, Bitcoin could benefit from increased liquidity. With more financial risk in the system, many investors may turn to Bitcoin as a store of value.

如果美联储降低了利率，则比特币可以从增加的流动性中受益。由于系统中的财务风险更大，许多投资者可能会将比特币作为价值存储。

However, if the economy deteriorates quickly, traders might prefer safer assets like U.S. bonds over cryptocurrencies.

但是，如果经济迅速恶化，交易者可能更喜欢像美国债券这样的更安全的资产，而不是加密货币。

Bitcoin’s next moves depend largely on how the Fed handles inflation and the broader economy. While rate cuts could boost Bitcoin by adding liquidity, worsening economic data could pull prices down.

比特币的下一步行动在很大程度上取决于美联储如何处理通货膨胀和更广泛的经济。虽然降低利率可以通过增加流动性来提高比特币，但经济数据恶化可能会降低价格。

Analyst Alex Krüger says Bitcoin’s future will be shaped by monetary policy decisions and signs of a recession, with market volatility expected as traders respond to new data.

分析师AlexKrüger表示，比特币的未来将由货币政策决策和经济衰退的迹象塑造，随着贸易商响应新数据，预计市场波动。

During a recession, consumer spending and liquidity tend to fall—two key drivers for crypto growth. While Bitcoin has strong support from ETF approvals and institutional interest, it still needs fresh capital to move higher.

在经济衰退期间，消费者的支出和流动性往往会下降，这是加密货币增长的主要驱动力。尽管比特币得到了ETF批准和机构利益的大力支持，但它仍然需要新的资本才能提高。

To understand where Bitcoin is headed next, investors are watching two main factors: the stock market and global liquidity.

为了了解比特币接下来要去的地方，投资者正在关注两个主要因素：股票市场和全球流动性。

If stocks continue to fall, Bitcoin is likely to follow. But if equity markets stabilize, Bitcoin might get the push it needs to climb back toward its all-time highs.

如果股票继续下跌，则可能会随后比特币。但是，如果股票市场稳定下来，比特币可能会得到其朝着历史最高高点攀升的推动力。

Investors are also tracking liquidity indicators like the Fed’s balance sheet (WALCL) and the M2 money velocity (M2V), which shows how much money is moving through the economy.

投资者还在跟踪流动性指标，例如美联储资产负债表（WALCL）和M2货币速度（M2V），该指标显示了经济中的资金正在转移了多少。

With the Fed’

与美联储'