特朗普總統的新互惠關稅預計將引髮美國衰退

包括股票和加密在內的全球市場正在經歷大量波動和低迷。

President Trump's new reciprocal tariffs are predicted to trigger a U.S. recession by late 2025, with rising inflation and unemployment.

預計特朗普總統的新互惠關稅將在2025年底之前引髮美國衰退，並隨著通貨膨脹和失業的增加。

Global markets, including equities and crypto, are experiencing significant volatility and downturns.

包括股票和加密在內的全球市場正在經歷大量波動和低迷。

Experts are advising investors to consider safe-haven assets like gold and Bitcoin amidst the predicted economic instability.

專家們建議投資者在預測的經濟不穩定中考慮避風港資產，例如黃金和比特幣。

The US economy is heading into rough territory, as major bank JPMorgan predicts a recession by the end of 2025. The main culprit? President Trump’s aggressive new reciprocal tariffs.

正如摩根大岸主要銀行預測到2025年底的衰退一樣，美國經濟正進入粗糙的領土。主要的罪魁禍首？特朗普總統積極進取的新互惠關稅。

These tariffs are designed to fix long-standing trade imbalances by targeting countries with large trade surpluses against the US, such as India. More tariff hikes are reportedly on the way.

這些關稅旨在通過針對針對美國（例如印度）的貿易盈餘的國家來解決長期的貿易失衡。據報導，更多的關稅遠足正在途中。

JPMorgan predicts that the US GDP will contract in 2025. Michael Feroli, the bank’s chief US economist, warns that the pressure from these new tariffs could push the country into a recession.

摩根大通預測，美國GDP將在2025年簽約。該銀行首席經濟學家邁克爾·費羅利（Michael Feroli）警告說，這些新關稅的壓力可能會使該國陷入衰退。

During the downturn, unemployment is expected to rise to 5.3%, and the administration’s efforts to lower the deficit will likely be stalled.

在低迷期間，預計失業率將上升到5.3％，政府降低赤字的努力可能會停滯不前。

Fed Chair Jerome Powell also expressed concern, saying the tariffs could impact the economy more than expected.

美聯儲主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾（Jerome Powell）也表示關注，稱關稅可能會影響經濟超出預期。

Larger tariffs would likely lead to higher inflation and slower growth, while smaller tariffs might spur some improvement in the economy.

較大的關稅可能會導致通貨膨脹率更高，增長速度較慢，而較小的關稅可能會刺激經濟的一些改善。

JPMorgan expects inflation to reach 4.4% by the end of the year, up from 2.8% in February. The bank believes the Fed will start cutting interest rates in June and continue gradually until January 2026, eventually lowering rates to 2.75%-3%.

摩根大通預計，到今年年底，通貨膨脹率將達到4.4％，高於2月的2.8％。該銀行認為，美聯儲將在6月開始降低利率，並持續到2026年1月，最終將利率降低至2.75％-3％。

However, Powell has suggested a more cautious approach, saying there’s no need to rush despite the growing pressure.

但是，鮑威爾提出了一種更加謹慎的方法，他說儘管壓力越來越大，但不需要急忙。

Also Read: Robert Kiyosaki Says the Market Crash Is Just Getting Started, Here’s What Next?

另請閱讀：羅伯特·基亞薩基（Robert Kiyosaki）說，市場崩潰才剛剛開始，接下來是什麼？

Global Markets Take a Hit as Tariffs Spark Reactions

當關稅激發反應時，全球市場受到打擊

The global economy is now feeling the pressure of America’s trade war. China has already responded by imposing a 34% tax on US goods, threatening to escalate the trade war further.

現在，全球經濟正在感受到美國貿易戰的壓力。中國已經對美國商品徵收34％的稅，威脅要進一步升級貿易戰。

Other countries are either threatening to retaliate or preparing for tough negotiations.

其他國家要么威脅要進行報復，要么準備進行艱苦的談判。

China’s move shook the markets, triggering a major sell-off. Trump’s trade war has already wiped out more than $5 trillion from the US stock market.

中國的舉動震撼了市場，引發了重大拋售。特朗普的貿易戰爭已經從美國股市中消除了超過5萬億美元。

And JPMorgan isn’t alone in sounding the alarm. Barclays expects a downturn next year, Citi sees just 0.1% growth, and UBS has cut its forecast to 0.4%.

摩根大通在發出警報時並不孤單。巴克萊預計明年會下滑，花旗的增長僅為0.1％，瑞銀將其預測降低到0.4％。

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney criticized the US for backing away from its global leadership role.

加拿大總理馬克·卡尼（Mark Carney）批評美國退出其全球領導職務。

“The world economy is different today than it was yesterday,” he said while announcing new countermeasures from Canada.

他在宣布加拿大的新對策時說：“今天的世界經濟與昨天不同。”

The crypto market dropped sharply after Trump’s tariff announcement, as investors looked for safer options like gold.

在特朗普的關稅宣布之後，加密貨幣市場急劇下降，因為投資者正在尋找像黃金這樣的更安全的選擇。

Bitcoin briefly touched $88,500 before falling below key support levels. Major altcoins like XRP, Solana, and Dogecoin dropped as much as 4.5%. US crypto-related stocks also fell due to the sweeping tariff policy.

比特幣短暫觸摸了$ 88,500，然後跌至關鍵支持水平。 XRP，Solana和Dogecoin等主要的AltCoins下降了多達4.5％。由於廣泛的關稅政策，美國與加密相關的股票也下跌。

Fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) are growing in the crypto market. Since February 1, Bitcoin has dropped 10%, and Ethereum is down 20%, as worries about the impact of tariffs on blockchain growth and adoption persist.

恐懼，不確定性和懷疑（FUD）在加密市場中正在增長。自2月1日以來，比特幣下降了10％，以太坊下降了20％，因為擔心關稅對區塊鏈增長和採用的影響持續存在。

However, XRP rose 2% after the SEC officially dropped its case against Ripple, bringing some relief to investors who have endured years of regulatory uncertainty.

但是，SEC正式對Ripple的案件正式撤銷了XRP的增長2％，這使經歷了多年監管不確定性的投資者有所緩解。

The market is divided on how Bitcoin will perform in this environment. Some see it as “digital gold,” a hedge against inflation and instability.

在這種環境下，市場對比特幣的表現有所分歧。有些人將其視為“數字黃金”，這是對通貨膨脹和不穩定的對沖。

If the Fed cuts interest rates, Bitcoin could benefit from increased liquidity. With more financial risk in the system, many investors may turn to Bitcoin as a store of value.

如果美聯儲降低了利率，則比特幣可以從增加的流動性中受益。由於系統中的財務風險更大，許多投資者可能會將比特幣作為價值存儲。

However, if the economy deteriorates quickly, traders might prefer safer assets like U.S. bonds over cryptocurrencies.

但是，如果經濟迅速惡化，交易者可能更喜歡像美國債券這樣的更安全的資產，而不是加密貨幣。

Bitcoin’s next moves depend largely on how the Fed handles inflation and the broader economy. While rate cuts could boost Bitcoin by adding liquidity, worsening economic data could pull prices down.

比特幣的下一步行動在很大程度上取決於美聯儲如何處理通貨膨脹和更廣泛的經濟。雖然降低利率可以通過增加流動性來提高比特幣，但經濟數據惡化可能會降低價格。

Analyst Alex Krüger says Bitcoin’s future will be shaped by monetary policy decisions and signs of a recession, with market volatility expected as traders respond to new data.

分析師AlexKrüger表示，比特幣的未來將由貨幣政策決策和經濟衰退的跡象塑造，隨著貿易商響應新數據，預計市場波動。

During a recession, consumer spending and liquidity tend to fall—two key drivers for crypto growth. While Bitcoin has strong support from ETF approvals and institutional interest, it still needs fresh capital to move higher.

在經濟衰退期間，消費者的支出和流動性往往會下降，這是加密貨幣增長的主要驅動力。儘管比特幣得到了ETF批准和機構利益的大力支持，但它仍然需要新的資本才能提高。

To understand where Bitcoin is headed next, investors are watching two main factors: the stock market and global liquidity.

為了了解比特幣接下來要去的地方，投資者正在關注兩個主要因素：股票市場和全球流動性。

If stocks continue to fall, Bitcoin is likely to follow. But if equity markets stabilize, Bitcoin might get the push it needs to climb back toward its all-time highs.

如果股票繼續下跌，則可能會隨後比特幣。但是，如果股票市場穩定下來，比特幣可能會得到其朝著歷史最高高點攀升的推動力。

Investors are also tracking liquidity indicators like the Fed’s balance sheet (WALCL) and the M2 money velocity (M2V), which shows how much money is moving through the economy.

投資者還在跟踪流動性指標，例如美聯儲資產負債表（WALCL）和M2貨幣速度（M2V），該指標顯示了經濟中的資金正在轉移了多少。

With the Fed’

與美聯儲'