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如果你认为看多特朗普的人错了,那就做空他们。作者:奥布里·史特博。
Accusations of prediction market manipulation have surfaced following former President Donald Trump’s odds rallying on Polymarket, with some suggesting that a single anonymous entity has made large bets to make a Trump victory appear more likely.
在前总统唐纳德·特朗普在 Polymarket 上的赔率上涨后,对预测市场操纵的指控浮出水面,一些人表示,一个匿名实体下了大注,以使特朗普获胜的可能性更大。
However, these claims are largely unfounded, as there is no evidence to suggest that the large bets are anything other than traders expressing their belief that Trump is underpriced.
然而,这些说法在很大程度上是没有根据的,因为没有证据表明大额押注除了交易员表示相信特朗普被低估之外还有其他任何内容。
In fact, the presence of a large buyer is actually a sign that the market is functioning efficiently, as it allows those who have the strongest conviction to express their views in the most impactful way.
事实上,大买家的出现实际上是市场有效运作的标志,因为它允许那些最坚定信念的人以最有影响力的方式表达他们的观点。
Moreover, even if the trader was attempting to manipulate the market, it’s unclear how this would benefit Trump. It might cause complacency among his voters, reducing their turnout on Election Day (or even galvanize Harris supporters to show up at the polls).
此外,即使该交易员试图操纵市场,也不清楚这会给特朗普带来什么好处。这可能会导致他的选民自满,从而减少选举日的投票率(甚至激励哈里斯的支持者出现在投票站)。
Second, you could simply spend that $30 million on ads in battleground states and meaningfully influence the race. Polymarket remains as of yet a fairly obscure platform so any PR dividend from moving the odds slightly would be extremely hard to quantify.
其次,你可以简单地将这 3000 万美元花在摇摆州的广告上,并对竞选产生有意义的影响。 Polymarket 迄今为止仍然是一个相当模糊的平台,因此稍微改变赔率所带来的任何公关红利都将极难量化。
Plus, as Polymarket itself noted in a detailed blog post Monday rebutting the manipulation claims, "if any user has any reason to believe that trades are being made for anything other than financial reasons, it is easy to adjust the odds to account for this" by excluding the whales' bets
另外,正如 Polymarket 在周一反驳操纵指控的详细博客文章中指出的那样,“如果任何用户有任何理由相信交易是出于财务原因以外的任何原因进行的,那么很容易调整赔率来解释这一点”排除鲸鱼的赌注
The market is never “wrong.” It simply reflects all available information. If you correctly disagree with the market, you can be rewarded for that belief, by betting yourself.
市场永远不会“错”。它只是反映了所有可用的信息。如果你正确地不同意市场的观点,你就可以通过自己下注来获得这种信念的回报。
U.S. users have alternatives to Polymarket, which is barred from serving them under a regulatory settlement. If you believe the Polymarket whale a) has meaningfully pushed up the price of the Trump contract, and b) is wrong, you can simply bet against him or her or them by going long on Harris.
美国用户还有 Polymarket 之外的其他选择,但根据监管和解协议,Polymarket 被禁止为他们提供服务。如果您认为Polymarket鲸鱼a)有意义地推高了特朗普合约的价格,并且b)是错误的,您可以通过做多哈里斯来简单地做空他或她或他们。
Even though it’s not risk-free – Harris still needs to win for your bet to pay off – if you thought her “real” odds were 55%, you would be buying something worth 55 cents for 40 cents today. Even if you might not be willing to do that, other market participants will.
尽管这并非没有风险——哈里斯仍然需要获胜才能让你的赌注得到回报——如果你认为她的“真实”赔率是 55%,那么你今天就会以 40 美分的价格购买价值 55 美分的东西。即使您可能不愿意这样做,其他市场参与者也会这样做。
So if the Polymarket whale is indeed misinformed, now that we know there’s a (potentially misinformed) whale, you would expect the odds to decline as traders incorporate this new information.
因此,如果 Polymarket 鲸鱼确实被误导了,既然我们知道有一条(可能被误导的)鲸鱼,那么随着交易者吸收这一新信息,你会预计赔率会下降。
Unless of course, the prediction markets are generally reliable and the whale hasn’t influenced them much.
当然,除非预测市场总体上是可靠的,而且鲸鱼并没有对它们产生太大影响。
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