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如果你認為看多川普的人錯了,那就做空他們。作者:奧布里‧史特博。
Accusations of prediction market manipulation have surfaced following former President Donald Trump’s odds rallying on Polymarket, with some suggesting that a single anonymous entity has made large bets to make a Trump victory appear more likely.
在前總統唐納德·川普在Polymarket 上的賠率上漲後,對預測市場操縱的指控浮出水面,一些人表示,一個匿名實體下了大注,以使川普獲勝的可能性更大。
However, these claims are largely unfounded, as there is no evidence to suggest that the large bets are anything other than traders expressing their belief that Trump is underpriced.
然而,這些說法在很大程度上是沒有根據的,因為沒有證據表明大筆押注除了交易員表示相信川普被低估之外還有其他任何東西。
In fact, the presence of a large buyer is actually a sign that the market is functioning efficiently, as it allows those who have the strongest conviction to express their views in the most impactful way.
事實上,大買家的出現實際上是市場有效運作的標誌,因為它允許那些最堅定信念的人以最有影響力的方式表達他們的觀點。
Moreover, even if the trader was attempting to manipulate the market, it’s unclear how this would benefit Trump. It might cause complacency among his voters, reducing their turnout on Election Day (or even galvanize Harris supporters to show up at the polls).
此外,即使該交易員試圖操縱市場,也不清楚這會為川普帶來什麼好處。這可能會導致他的選民自滿,從而減少選舉日的投票率(甚至激勵哈里斯的支持者出現在投票站)。
Second, you could simply spend that $30 million on ads in battleground states and meaningfully influence the race. Polymarket remains as of yet a fairly obscure platform so any PR dividend from moving the odds slightly would be extremely hard to quantify.
其次,你可以簡單地將這 3000 萬美元花在搖擺州的廣告上,並對競選產生有意義的影響。 Polymarket 迄今為止仍然是一個相當模糊的平台,因此稍微改變賠率所帶來的任何公關紅利都將極難量化。
Plus, as Polymarket itself noted in a detailed blog post Monday rebutting the manipulation claims, "if any user has any reason to believe that trades are being made for anything other than financial reasons, it is easy to adjust the odds to account for this" by excluding the whales' bets
另外,正如 Polymarket 在周一反駁操縱指控的詳細部落格文章中指出的那樣,“如果任何用戶有任何理由相信交易是出於財務原因以外的任何原因進行的,那麼很容易調整賠率來解釋這一點”排除鯨魚的賭注
The market is never “wrong.” It simply reflects all available information. If you correctly disagree with the market, you can be rewarded for that belief, by betting yourself.
市場永遠不會「錯」。它只是反映了所有可用的信息。如果你正確地不同意市場的觀點,你就可以透過自己下注來獲得這種信念的回報。
U.S. users have alternatives to Polymarket, which is barred from serving them under a regulatory settlement. If you believe the Polymarket whale a) has meaningfully pushed up the price of the Trump contract, and b) is wrong, you can simply bet against him or her or them by going long on Harris.
美國用戶還有 Polymarket 以外的其他選擇,但根據監管和解協議,Polymarket 被禁止為他們提供服務。如果您認為Polymarket鯨魚a)有意義地推高了川普合約的價格,並且b)是錯誤的,您可以透過做多哈里斯來簡單地做空他或她或他們。
Even though it’s not risk-free – Harris still needs to win for your bet to pay off – if you thought her “real” odds were 55%, you would be buying something worth 55 cents for 40 cents today. Even if you might not be willing to do that, other market participants will.
儘管這並非沒有風險——哈里斯仍然需要獲勝才能讓你的賭注得到回報——如果你認為她的「真實」賠率是55%,那麼你今天就會以40 美分的價格購買價值55 美分的東西。即使您可能不願意這樣做,其他市場參與者也會這樣做。
So if the Polymarket whale is indeed misinformed, now that we know there’s a (potentially misinformed) whale, you would expect the odds to decline as traders incorporate this new information.
因此,如果 Polymarket 鯨魚確實被誤導了,既然我們知道有一條(可能被誤導的)鯨魚,那麼隨著交易者吸收這一新訊息,你會預期賠率會下降。
Unless of course, the prediction markets are generally reliable and the whale hasn’t influenced them much.
當然,除非預測市場總體上是可靠的,而且鯨魚並沒有對它們產生太大影響。
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