Polymarket Whale Larpas 在支持特朗普的总统选举赌注中倾销了 300 万美元

Arkham Intelligence 的链上数据显示，Polymarket 鲸鱼 larpas 周一抛售了超过 300 万美元的支持特朗普总统选举的赌注。

Polymarket whale “larpas” sold over $3 million in Presidential election bets on Monday, according to new data from blockchain analytics firm Arkham Intelligence.

根据区块链分析公司 Arkham Intelligence 的最新数据，Polymarket 鲸鱼“larpas”周一在总统选举赌注中售出超过 300 万美元。

These sales began immediately after Giant-Cassocked Rebirth (GCR), a well-known crypto trader, discussed election bets in a social media post. In the post, GCR suggested that he gamed Polymarket odds.

这些销售是在著名加密货币交易员 Giant-Cassocked Rebirth (GCR) 在社交媒体帖子中讨论选举赌注后立即开始的。在帖子中，GCR 建议他利用 Polymarket 赔率。

Specifically, GCR stated that he identified a categorical error in the markets’ ability to assess right-wing candidates correctly and then profited. This aligns with previous rumors that GCR was a major pro-Trump meme coin whale.

具体来说，GCR 表示，他发现市场正确评估右翼候选人的能力存在明显错误，然后从中获利。这与之前的谣言相符，即 GCR 是主要的亲特朗普 meme 币鲸。

“In 2021, I had a conviction that prediction markets would have a right wing skew. Therefore, the expected pricing on the eventual Republican nominee would drift to 65. Therefore, it was max value to bid infinite Trump at below 10% implied odds, knowing it would move to 65+% if my bearish thesis was correct,” GCR stated.

“2021 年，我坚信预测市场将出现右翼倾向。因此，最终共和党提名人的预期定价将漂移至 65。因此，以低于 10% 的隐含赔率对无限特朗普出价是最大价值，因为知道如果我的看跌论点是正确的，它将升至 65+%，”GCR 表示。

GCR went on to claim that his predictions proved accurate, and he “took profit on [his] positions” after capturing “the meat of the move.” He also recommended that his readers neither use leverage in bets nor engage in reckless gambling.

GCR接着声称，他的预测被证明是准确的，并且在抓住“走势的实质”后，他“从[他的]头寸中获利”。他还建议读者不要在投注中使用杠杆，也不要进行鲁莽的赌博。

The 2024 Presidential election has spurred political Polymarket bets to a billion-dollar market and shows few signs of letting up. The trade volumes were enticing enough for Robinhood to offer election betting with only a week remaining in the race.

2024 年总统选举刺激了政治 Polymarket 的赌注达到了数十亿美元的市场，而且几乎没有任何停止的迹象。交易量足以让罗宾汉在比赛还剩一周的情况下提供选举投注。

Cryptocurrency has taken a prominent role in this electoral cycle, as the electorate is noticeably drifting more pro-crypto.

加密货币在本次选举周期中发挥了重要作用，因为选民明显变得更加支持加密货币。

However, the titanic hype about prediction markets has not translated into accurate odds. Last week, research claimed that Donald Trump’s odds were systematically inflated on the platform.

然而，关于预测市场的巨大炒作并没有转化为准确的赔率。上周，研究声称唐纳德·特朗普的胜算在该平台上被系统性地夸大。

Up to 30% of trades in favor of Trump are reportedly fake, and whale accounts might push his odds further. In the next 24 hours, GCR might not be the only one to win by gaming prediction markets.

据报道，高达 30% 有利于特朗普的交易都是假的，鲸鱼账户可能会进一步推高他的胜算。在接下来的24小时内，GCR可能不是唯一通过博弈预测市场获胜的。