Polymarket Whale Larpas 在支持川普的總統選舉賭注中傾銷了 300 萬美元

Arkham Intelligence 的鏈上數據顯示，Polymarket 鯨魚 larpas 週一拋售了超過 300 萬美元的支持川普總統選舉的賭注。

Polymarket whale “larpas” sold over $3 million in Presidential election bets on Monday, according to new data from blockchain analytics firm Arkham Intelligence.

根據區塊鏈分析公司 Arkham Intelligence 的最新數據，Polymarket 鯨魚「larpas」週一在總統選舉賭注中售出超過 300 萬美元。

These sales began immediately after Giant-Cassocked Rebirth (GCR), a well-known crypto trader, discussed election bets in a social media post. In the post, GCR suggested that he gamed Polymarket odds.

這些銷售是在著名加密貨幣交易員 Giant-Cassocked Rebirth (GCR) 在社交媒體帖子中討論選舉賭注後立即開始的。在帖子中，GCR 建議他利用 Polymarket 賠率。

Specifically, GCR stated that he identified a categorical error in the markets’ ability to assess right-wing candidates correctly and then profited. This aligns with previous rumors that GCR was a major pro-Trump meme coin whale.

具體來說，GCR 表示，他發現市場正確評估右翼候選人的能力有明顯錯誤，然後從中獲利。這與先前的謠言相符，即 GCR 是主要的親川普 meme 幣鯨。

“In 2021, I had a conviction that prediction markets would have a right wing skew. Therefore, the expected pricing on the eventual Republican nominee would drift to 65. Therefore, it was max value to bid infinite Trump at below 10% implied odds, knowing it would move to 65+% if my bearish thesis was correct,” GCR stated.

「2021 年，我堅信預測市場將出現右翼傾向。因此，最終共和黨提名人的預期定價將漂移至65。至65+%，”GCR 表示。

GCR went on to claim that his predictions proved accurate, and he “took profit on [his] positions” after capturing “the meat of the move.” He also recommended that his readers neither use leverage in bets nor engage in reckless gambling.

GCR接著聲稱，他的預測被證明是準確的，並且在抓住「走勢的實質」後，他「從〔他的〕頭寸中獲利」。他也建議讀者不要在投注中使用槓桿，也不要進行魯莽的賭博。

The 2024 Presidential election has spurred political Polymarket bets to a billion-dollar market and shows few signs of letting up. The trade volumes were enticing enough for Robinhood to offer election betting with only a week remaining in the race.

2024 年總統選舉刺激了政治 Polymarket 的賭注達到了數十億美元的市場，幾乎沒有任何停止的跡象。交易量足以讓羅賓漢在比賽還剩一周的情況下提供選舉投注。

Cryptocurrency has taken a prominent role in this electoral cycle, as the electorate is noticeably drifting more pro-crypto.

加密貨幣在本次選舉週期中發揮了重要作用，因為選民明顯變得更加支持加密貨幣。

However, the titanic hype about prediction markets has not translated into accurate odds. Last week, research claimed that Donald Trump’s odds were systematically inflated on the platform.

然而，關於預測市場的巨大炒作並沒有轉化為準確的賠率。上週，研究聲稱唐納德·川普的勝算在該平台上被系統性地誇大。

Up to 30% of trades in favor of Trump are reportedly fake, and whale accounts might push his odds further. In the next 24 hours, GCR might not be the only one to win by gaming prediction markets.

據報道，高達 30% 有利於川普的交易都是假的，鯨魚帳戶可能會進一步推高他的勝算。在接下來的24小時內，GCR可能不是唯一透過博弈預測市場獲勝的人。