Polymarket Whale Larpas Dumped $3M in Pro-Trump Presidential Election Bets

On-chain data from Arkham Intelligence shows that larpas, a Polymarket whale, dumped over $3 million in pro-Trump Presidential election bets on Monday.

Polymarket whale “larpas” sold over $3 million in Presidential election bets on Monday, according to new data from blockchain analytics firm Arkham Intelligence.

These sales began immediately after Giant-Cassocked Rebirth (GCR), a well-known crypto trader, discussed election bets in a social media post. In the post, GCR suggested that he gamed Polymarket odds.

Specifically, GCR stated that he identified a categorical error in the markets’ ability to assess right-wing candidates correctly and then profited. This aligns with previous rumors that GCR was a major pro-Trump meme coin whale.

“In 2021, I had a conviction that prediction markets would have a right wing skew. Therefore, the expected pricing on the eventual Republican nominee would drift to 65. Therefore, it was max value to bid infinite Trump at below 10% implied odds, knowing it would move to 65+% if my bearish thesis was correct,” GCR stated.

GCR went on to claim that his predictions proved accurate, and he “took profit on [his] positions” after capturing “the meat of the move.” He also recommended that his readers neither use leverage in bets nor engage in reckless gambling.

The 2024 Presidential election has spurred political Polymarket bets to a billion-dollar market and shows few signs of letting up. The trade volumes were enticing enough for Robinhood to offer election betting with only a week remaining in the race.

Cryptocurrency has taken a prominent role in this electoral cycle, as the electorate is noticeably drifting more pro-crypto.

However, the titanic hype about prediction markets has not translated into accurate odds. Last week, research claimed that Donald Trump’s odds were systematically inflated on the platform.

Up to 30% of trades in favor of Trump are reportedly fake, and whale accounts might push his odds further. In the next 24 hours, GCR might not be the only one to win by gaming prediction markets.