Polymarket 用户预测，当选总统唐纳德·特朗普在其执政的头 100 天内不会批准战略比特币储备。

一项针对超过 150 万美元资金的民意调查显示，这一可能性仅为 27%，低于特朗普当选后的 60%。这是一个值得注意的预测，因为 Polymarket 过去一直非常准确，包括它对上次总统选举的估计。

Polymarket users are betting that President-elect Donald Trump will not approve a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve within the first 100 days of his administration.

Polymarket 用户押注当选总统唐纳德·特朗普在其执政的头 100 天内不会批准战略比特币储备。

A poll with over $1.5 million in funds puts these odds at just 27%, down from 60% after Trump’s election. This is a notable prediction since Polymarket has been highly accurate in the past, including its estimate on the last presidential election.

一项针对超过 150 万美元资金的民意调查显示，这一可能性仅为 27%，低于特朗普当选后的 60%。这是一个值得注意的预测，因为 Polymarket 过去一直非常准确，包括它对上次总统选举的估计。

Other participants in the prediction market expect Trump to ultimately accept Bitcoin (BTC) as a strategic reserve, joining crude oil and gold. Kalshi, for example, has placed the odds of a BTC reserve happening by January 2026 at 61%, the highest point since Dec. 21.

预测市场的其他参与者预计特朗普最终将接受比特币（BTC）作为战略储备，加入原油和黄金的行列。例如，Kalshi 认为 2026 年 1 月 BTC 储备的可能性为 61%，这是自 12 月 21 日以来的最高点。

Some conservative-leaning states like Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania have also started working on their strategic Bitcoin reserves. A bill in Pennsylvania states that the government may invest at least 10% of the State General Fund in Bitcoin to fight inflation.

德克萨斯州、俄亥俄州和宾夕法尼亚州等一些保守倾向的州也开始致力于比特币战略储备。宾夕法尼亚州的一项法案规定，政府可能将至少 10% 的州普通基金投资于比特币，以对抗通货膨胀。

Still, Polymarket and Kalshi users expect the Texas strategic Bitcoin reserve bill to take time. A Polymarket poll places the odds of Texas passing the bill by March next year at 10%, while Kalshi has the odds at 24%.

尽管如此，Polymarket 和 Kalshi 用户预计德克萨斯州战略比特币储备法案需要时间。 Polymarket 的一项民意调查显示，德克萨斯州在明年 3 月之前通过该法案的可能性为 10%，而卡尔希的可能性为 24%。

Proponents of the U.S. embracing Bitcoin as a strategic reserve, including Senator Cynthia Lummis, argue that it makes financial sense because of the demand and supply dynamics.

美国拥护比特币作为战略储备的支持者，包括参议员辛西娅·鲁米斯 (Cynthia Lummis)，认为由于需求和供给动态，比特币具有财务意义。

Data shows that Bitcoin demand is rising, with spot ETFs having over $128 billion in assets. Supply is falling, with the mining difficulty rising to a record high after the last Bitcoin halving event in April this year. According to CoinGlass, Bitcoin balances in exchanges have continued falling this year.

数据显示，比特币需求正在上升，现货 ETF 资产超过 1280 亿美元。自今年 4 月上次比特币减半事件以来，供应量正在下降，挖矿难度升至历史新高。据 CoinGlass 称，今年交易所的比特币余额持续下降。

Proponents also point to MicroStrategy’s success, which has helped it become an $80 billion company by becoming the biggest Bitcoin holder. As such, some analysts predict that the U.S. could ultimately use its Bitcoin holdings to pay some of its debt, which currently stands at over $36 trillion.

支持者还指出 MicroStrategy 的成功，这帮助它成为最大的比特币持有者，成为一家价值 800 亿美元的公司。因此，一些分析师预测，美国最终可能会使用其持有的比特币来偿还部分债务，目前该债务超过 36 万亿美元。

Opponents argue that Bitcoin’s volatility, limited acceptance, market scale, regulatory constraints, and its implications for sovereignty and trust make it an impractical solution for paying off the U.S. national debt.

反对者认为，比特币的波动性、接受度有限、市场规模、监管限制及其对主权和信任的影响，使其成为偿还美国国债的不切实际的解决方案。

Also, the Federal Reserve has already said that it is not allowed to hold Bitcoin, meaning that it would need a congressional law to do that.

此外，美联储已经表示不允许持有比特币，这意味着需要国会立法才能做到这一点。

Trump has supported Bitcoin and suggested that the government should convert its Bitcoin holdings into strategic reserves. Data by BitcoinTreasuries show that the government holds 198,000 coins valued at $18 billion.

特朗普一直支持比特币，并建议政府应将其持有的比特币转换为战略储备。 BitcoinTreasuries 的数据显示，政府持有 198,000 个比特币，价值 180 亿美元。