Polymarket 用戶預測，當選總統唐納德·川普在其執政的頭 100 天內不會批准戰略比特幣儲備。

一項針對超過 150 萬美元資金的民調顯示，這一可能性僅為 27%，低於川普當選後的 60%。這是一個值得注意的預測，因為 Polymarket 過去一直非常準確，包括它對上次總統選舉的估計。

Polymarket users are betting that President-elect Donald Trump will not approve a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve within the first 100 days of his administration.

Polymarket 用戶押注當選總統唐納德·川普在其執政的頭 100 天內不會批准戰略比特幣儲備。

A poll with over $1.5 million in funds puts these odds at just 27%, down from 60% after Trump’s election. This is a notable prediction since Polymarket has been highly accurate in the past, including its estimate on the last presidential election.

一項針對超過 150 萬美元資金的民調顯示，這一可能性僅為 27%，低於川普當選後的 60%。這是一個值得注意的預測，因為 Polymarket 過去一直非常準確，包括它對上次總統選舉的估計。

Other participants in the prediction market expect Trump to ultimately accept Bitcoin (BTC) as a strategic reserve, joining crude oil and gold. Kalshi, for example, has placed the odds of a BTC reserve happening by January 2026 at 61%, the highest point since Dec. 21.

預測市場的其他參與者預計川普最終將接受比特幣（BTC）作為戰略儲備，加入原油和黃金的行列。例如，Kalshi 認為 2026 年 1 月 BTC 儲備的可能性為 61%，這是自 12 月 21 日以來的最高點。

Some conservative-leaning states like Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania have also started working on their strategic Bitcoin reserves. A bill in Pennsylvania states that the government may invest at least 10% of the State General Fund in Bitcoin to fight inflation.

德州、俄亥俄州和賓州等一些保守傾向的州也開始致力於比特幣戰略儲備。賓州的一項法案規定，政府可能將至少 10% 的州普通基金投資於比特幣，以對抗通貨膨脹。

Still, Polymarket and Kalshi users expect the Texas strategic Bitcoin reserve bill to take time. A Polymarket poll places the odds of Texas passing the bill by March next year at 10%, while Kalshi has the odds at 24%.

儘管如此，Polymarket 和 Kalshi 用戶預計德州戰略比特幣儲備法案需要時間。 Polymarket 的一項民意調查顯示，德州在明年 3 月之前通過該法案的可能性為 10%，而卡爾希的可能性為 24%。

Proponents of the U.S. embracing Bitcoin as a strategic reserve, including Senator Cynthia Lummis, argue that it makes financial sense because of the demand and supply dynamics.

美國擁護比特幣作為戰略儲備的支持者，包括參議員辛西婭·盧米斯 (Cynthia Lummis)，認為由於需求和供應動態，比特幣具有財務意義。

Data shows that Bitcoin demand is rising, with spot ETFs having over $128 billion in assets. Supply is falling, with the mining difficulty rising to a record high after the last Bitcoin halving event in April this year. According to CoinGlass, Bitcoin balances in exchanges have continued falling this year.

數據顯示，比特幣需求正在上升，現貨 ETF 資產超過 1,280 億美元。自今年 4 月上次比特幣減半事件以來，供應量正在下降，挖礦難度升至歷史新高。據 CoinGlass 稱，今年交易所的比特幣餘額持續下降。

Proponents also point to MicroStrategy’s success, which has helped it become an $80 billion company by becoming the biggest Bitcoin holder. As such, some analysts predict that the U.S. could ultimately use its Bitcoin holdings to pay some of its debt, which currently stands at over $36 trillion.

支持者也指出 MicroStrategy 的成功，這幫助它成為最大的比特幣持有者，成為一家價值 800 億美元的公司。因此，一些分析師預測，美國最終可能會使用其持有的比特幣來償還部分債務，目前該債務超過 36 兆美元。

Opponents argue that Bitcoin’s volatility, limited acceptance, market scale, regulatory constraints, and its implications for sovereignty and trust make it an impractical solution for paying off the U.S. national debt.

反對者認為，比特幣的波動性、接受度有限、市場規模、監管限制及其對主權和信任的影響，使其成為償還美國國債的不切實際的解決方案。

Also, the Federal Reserve has already said that it is not allowed to hold Bitcoin, meaning that it would need a congressional law to do that.

此外，聯準會已經表示不允許持有比特幣，這意味著需要國會立法才能做到這一點。

Trump has supported Bitcoin and suggested that the government should convert its Bitcoin holdings into strategic reserves. Data by BitcoinTreasuries show that the government holds 198,000 coins valued at $18 billion.

川普一直支持比特幣，並建議政府應將其持有的比特幣轉換為戰略儲備。 BitcoinTreasuries 的數據顯示，政府持有 198,000 個比特幣，價值 180 億美元。