Polymarket 创始人 Shayne Coplan 坚称该平台绝非政治性

随着美国总统大选的临近，加密货币预测平台 Polymarket 一直成为人们关注的焦点，《纽约时报》和《华尔街日报》都对此进行了报道，暗示其市场正在被操纵以支持特朗普。

Coverage from the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal has put crypto prediction platform Polymarket in the spotlight as the U.S. presidential election nears. Both publications have suggested that markets on the platform are being manipulated in favor of Trump.

随着美国总统大选的临近，《纽约时报》和《华尔街日报》的报道使加密货币预测平台 Polymarket 成为人们关注的焦点。这两份出版物都暗示，该平台上的市场正在被操纵，以支持特朗普。

However, Founder Shayne Coplan insists that the platform is anything but political. “Polymarket was never meant to be a political website, and that still holds true,” Coplan clarified in an Oct. 25 post on X. “Polymarket is not about politics. The vision never was to be a political website, and it still isn’t. From launch day, the goal has been to harness the power of free markets to demystify the real world events that matter most to you. This US election cycle, we’ve been pulled onto center stage, as people are fed up with having to make sense of ‘For You’ feeds, pundits, and incongruent polls – we take that responsibility seriously. Polymarket’s rise in popularity correlates with correctly forecasting Biden dropping out – it was the one source that called it. Hopefully politics is the first step to get the masses to realize the value of market-based forecasts.”

然而，创始人谢恩·科普兰坚称该平台绝不是政治性的。 “Polymarket 从来就不是一个政治网站，这一点仍然成立，”Coplan 在 10 月 25 日的 X 帖子中澄清道。“Polymarket 与政治无关。我们的愿景从来不是成为一个政治网站，现在仍然不是。从发布之日起，我们的目标就是利用自由市场的力量来揭开对您最重要的现实世界事件的神秘面纱。在这个美国选举周期中，我们被拉到了舞台中央，因为人们厌倦了必须理解“为你”的信息、专家和不一致的民意调查——我们认真对待这一责任。 Polymarket 受欢迎程度的上升与正确预测拜登退出有关——这是一位消息人士的说法。希望政治是让大众认识到基于市场的预测价值的第一步。”

Coplan addressed speculation that Polymarkets has political leanings, debunking the idea and calling the platform’s team “market nerds” rather than political operatives. “It’s not as thrilling as it sounds—we’re just passionate about using prediction markets to offer a fresh, unbiased data source,” he explained. “Polymarket is strictly non-partisan. We get told we’re Dem operatives and MAGA, depending on the day. Unfortunately the story is much less juicy, we’re just market nerds who think prediction markets provide the public with a much needed alternative data source. It’s naturally a fit in a world where there are infinite opinions being served to you algorithmically based on what you already think, designed only to keep you engaged and push you further into an echo chamber. If just one thing, Polymarket is a reality check.”

科普兰回应了有关 Polymarkets 有政治倾向的猜测，揭穿了这一想法，并称该平台的团队是“市场书呆子”而不是政治操作者。 “这并不像听起来那么令人兴奋——我们只是热衷于利用预测市场来提供新鲜、公正的数据源，”他解释道。 “Polymarket 是严格无党派的。根据具体日期，我们被告知我们是民主党特工和 MAGA。不幸的是，这个故事并不那么有趣，我们只是市场迷，他们认为预测市场为公众提供了急需的替代数据源。它自然适合这样一个世界：根据你已有的想法，通过算法为你提供无限的意见，旨在让你保持参与并将你进一步推入回声室。如果只说一件事的话，Polymarket 就是一个现实检验。”

With the election drawing closer, Coplan acknowledged that Polymarket is naturally capturing more attention, especially from voters frustrated by confusing punditry and conflicting polls, “The beauty of Polymarket is it’s all peer-to-peer and transparent. Even more transparent than traditional finance, where all the data is obfuscated and only visible to the operator. That’s why everyone is able to audit all the usage – which is a good thing for free markets. A feature, not a bug.

随着选举的临近，Coplan 承认 Polymarket 自然会吸引更多的关注，尤其是那些因令人困惑的专家和相互矛盾的民意调查而感到沮丧的选民，“Polymarket 的美妙之处在于它是点对点且透明的。甚至比传统金融更加透明，所有数据都是模糊的，只有运营商可见。这就是为什么每个人都能够审核所有使用情况——这对自由市场来说是一件好事。一个功能，而不是一个错误。

The market sets the price, not the operator. There is no “house” setting the odds. It’s the invisible hand, not the thumb on the scale. The idea is if people disagree with the market price, they have the opportunity to capitalize by buying the side they think is priced too low. As these markets get more popular, liquid, and accessible, we foresee a world where markets guide decision making, and opinions are backed by capital. The downstream effect is an information landscape with less sensationalism and more truth. Onwards.”

价格由市场决定，而不是由运营商决定。没有“庄家”决定赔率。这是一只看不见的手，而不是秤上的拇指。这个想法是，如果人们不同意市场价格，他们有机会通过购买他们认为价格太低的一方来获利。随着这些市场变得越来越受欢迎、流动性和可及性，我们预见到一个市场指导决策、意见得到资本支持的世界。下游效应是信息景观少一些煽情性多一些真实性。以后。”

As of today, Trump has a commanding lead on Polymarket, at 64.5% likely to win the election

截至今日，特朗普在 Polymarket 上遥遥领先，赢得大选的可能性为 64.5%