Polymarket 創辦人 Shayne Coplan 堅稱該平台絕非政治性

隨著美國總統大選的臨近，加密貨幣預測平台 Polymarket 一直成為人們關注的焦點，《紐約時報》和《華爾街日報》都對此進行了報道，暗示其市場正在被操縱以支持川普。

Coverage from the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal has put crypto prediction platform Polymarket in the spotlight as the U.S. presidential election nears. Both publications have suggested that markets on the platform are being manipulated in favor of Trump.

隨著美國總統大選的臨近，《紐約時報》和《華爾街日報》的報導使加密貨幣預測平台 Polymarket 成為人們關注的焦點。這兩份出版物都暗示，該平台上的市場正在被操縱，以支持川普。

However, Founder Shayne Coplan insists that the platform is anything but political. “Polymarket was never meant to be a political website, and that still holds true,” Coplan clarified in an Oct. 25 post on X. “Polymarket is not about politics. The vision never was to be a political website, and it still isn’t. From launch day, the goal has been to harness the power of free markets to demystify the real world events that matter most to you. This US election cycle, we’ve been pulled onto center stage, as people are fed up with having to make sense of ‘For You’ feeds, pundits, and incongruent polls – we take that responsibility seriously. Polymarket’s rise in popularity correlates with correctly forecasting Biden dropping out – it was the one source that called it. Hopefully politics is the first step to get the masses to realize the value of market-based forecasts.”

然而，創辦人謝恩·科普蘭堅稱該平台絕非政治性的。 「Polymarket 從來就不是一個政治網站，這一點仍然成立，」Coplan 在 10 月 25 日的 X 帖子中澄清道。我們的願景從來不是成為一個政治網站，現在仍然不是。從發布之日起，我們的目標就是利用自由市場的力量來揭開對您最重要的現實世界事件的神秘面紗。在這個美國選舉週期中，我們被拉到了舞台中央，因為人們厭倦了必須理解「為你」的資訊、專家和不一致的民意調查——我們認真對待這一責任。 Polymarket 受歡迎程度的上升與正確預測拜登退出有關——這是一位消息人士的說法。希望政治是讓大眾認識到基於市場的預測價值的第一步。

Coplan addressed speculation that Polymarkets has political leanings, debunking the idea and calling the platform’s team “market nerds” rather than political operatives. “It’s not as thrilling as it sounds—we’re just passionate about using prediction markets to offer a fresh, unbiased data source,” he explained. “Polymarket is strictly non-partisan. We get told we’re Dem operatives and MAGA, depending on the day. Unfortunately the story is much less juicy, we’re just market nerds who think prediction markets provide the public with a much needed alternative data source. It’s naturally a fit in a world where there are infinite opinions being served to you algorithmically based on what you already think, designed only to keep you engaged and push you further into an echo chamber. If just one thing, Polymarket is a reality check.”

科普蘭回應了有關 Polymarkets 有政治傾向的猜測，揭穿了這一想法，並稱該平台的團隊是「市場書呆子」而不是政治操作者。 「這並不像聽起來那麼令人興奮——我們只是熱衷於利用預測市場來提供新鮮、公正的數據來源，」他解釋道。 「Polymarket 是嚴格無黨派的。根據具體日期，我們被告知我們是民主黨特工和 MAGA。不幸的是，這個故事並不那麼有趣，我們只是市場迷，他們認為預測市場為大眾提供了急需的替代資料來源。它自然適合這樣一個世界：根據你已有的想法，透過演算法為你提供無限的意見，旨在讓你保持參與並將你進一步推入迴聲室。如果只說一件事的話，Polymarket 就是一個現實檢驗。

With the election drawing closer, Coplan acknowledged that Polymarket is naturally capturing more attention, especially from voters frustrated by confusing punditry and conflicting polls, “The beauty of Polymarket is it’s all peer-to-peer and transparent. Even more transparent than traditional finance, where all the data is obfuscated and only visible to the operator. That’s why everyone is able to audit all the usage – which is a good thing for free markets. A feature, not a bug.

隨著選舉的臨近，Coplan 承認Polymarket 自然會吸引更多的關注，尤其是那些因令人困惑的專家和相互矛盾的民意調查而感到沮喪的選民，「Polymarket 的美妙之處在於它是點對點且透明的。甚至比傳統金融更透明，所有數據都是模糊的，只有營運商可見。這就是為什麼每個人都能夠審核所有使用情況——這對自由市場來說是一件好事。一個功能，而不是一個錯誤。

The market sets the price, not the operator. There is no “house” setting the odds. It’s the invisible hand, not the thumb on the scale. The idea is if people disagree with the market price, they have the opportunity to capitalize by buying the side they think is priced too low. As these markets get more popular, liquid, and accessible, we foresee a world where markets guide decision making, and opinions are backed by capital. The downstream effect is an information landscape with less sensationalism and more truth. Onwards.”

價格由市場決定，而不是由業者決定。沒有「莊家」決定賠率。這是一隻看不見的手，而不是秤上的拇指。這個想法是，如果人們不同意市場價格，他們有機會透過購買他們認為價格太低的一方來獲利。隨著這些市場變得越來越受歡迎、流動性和可近性，我們預見到一個市場指導決策、意見得到資本支持的世界。下游效應是資訊景觀少一些煽情性多一些真實性。以後。

As of today, Trump has a commanding lead on Polymarket, at 64.5% likely to win the election

截至今日，川普在 Polymarket 上遙遙領先，贏得大選的可能性為 64.5%