Polymarket 投注者正在放弃美国比特币储备的梦想

加密货币领域关于唐纳德·特朗普就任新总统后美国可能建立国家比特币战略储备的讨论很多，但在市场预测平台 Polymarket 上，这种可能性已大幅下降。

KEY POINTS

要点

There has been much talk in the cryptocurrency space regarding the potential creation of a national Bitcoin strategic reserve in the United States with Donald Trump as the new president, but on market prediction platform Polymarket, the odds have dipped significantly.

加密货币领域关于唐纳德·特朗普就任新总统后美国可能建立国家比特币战略储备的讨论很多，但在市场预测平台 Polymarket 上，这种可能性已大幅下降。

Crypto users on Polymarket have been very busy since before the U.S. elections as hopes soared for a pro-crypto government to be elected, but it turns out there's not much confidence in a BTC strategic reserve to be established within Trump's first 100 days in office.

自美国大选前以来，Polymarket 上的加密货币用户一直非常忙碌，因为人们对支持加密货币的政府当选的希望高涨，但事实证明，人们对特朗普上任 100 天内建立 BTC 战略储备并没有太多信心。

From 60% to Below 30%

从 60% 到 30% 以下

As of late Sunday, odds the incoming president will create a Bitcoin reserve have dropped to 28%, marking a massive drop from Nov. 7, when chances for such a reserve were at around 60%.

截至周日晚些时候，即将上任的总统建立比特币储备的可能性已降至 28%，与 11 月 7 日相比大幅下降，当时建立比特币储备的可能性约为 60%。

Since then, the numbers have been sliding, even when positive odds picked up once more on Nov. 21, hitting 45%. In the last few weeks, though, it's been more difficult to hit 40%, and by January, the chances dropped as low as 22%, indicating weaker confidence among crypto bettors.

从那时起，这一数字一直在下滑，尽管正赔率在 11 月 21 日再次回升，达到 45%。不过，在过去几周，达到 40% 的概率变得更加困难，而到 1 月份，概率已降至 22%，这表明加密货币投注者的信心减弱。

Why are Polymarket Bettors Not So Hopeful Anymore?

为什么 Polymarket 投注者不再那么有希望了？

There are mixed reactions to the significant drop in chances for a U.S. Bitcoin reserve. Some are saying it's a moonshot to get such a thing approved, while others believe Trump has other priorities.

对于美国比特币储备机会大幅下降，人们的反应不一。一些人说，让这样的事情获得批准是一次登月计划，而另一些人则认为特朗普还有其他优先事项。

For one user, it's not necessarily difficult to pull it off, but if crypto users were honest, it may require up to "a year of diligence" to determine a BTC reserve's effects on the broader U.S. economy.

对于一个用户来说，实现这一目标并不一定困难，但如果加密货币用户是诚实的，可能需要长达“一年的努力”才能确定 BTC 储备对更广泛的美国经济的影响。

Another user pointed out that it's just not possible for a Bitcoin reserve to be established within the first 100 days of a sitting president, given how the government works.

另一位用户指出，考虑到政府的运作方式，在任总统的头 100 天内不可能建立比特币储备。

The said user argued that even if Trump makes use of an executive order, it will take the U.S. Treasury, or whichever agency is delegated to oversee the reserve, to implement the steps to establishing the reserve. "100 days is far too fast," he reiterated.

该用户辩称，即使特朗普使用行政命令，也需要美国财政部或任何被授权监督储备的机构来实施建立储备的步骤。 “100 天太快了，”他重申。

Others are just too optimistic to think of the "No" bettors concerns, with many saying Trump's "many Bitcoiners" in his cabinet know how important it is to have a BTC reserve as soon as possible with the bull run incoming.

其他人则过于乐观，没有想到“不”投注者的担忧，许多人表示，特朗普内阁中的“许多比特币支持者”知道，随着牛市即将到来，尽快拥有比特币储备有多么重要。

Earlier Pessimism over $BTC Reserve

早些时候对 BTC 储备的悲观情绪

This isn't the first time negativity around the possibility of a Bitcoin reserve hit the crypto community hard.

这并不是比特币储备可能性的负面情绪第一次对加密货币社区造成沉重打击。

In mid-December, U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell single-handedly sent Bitcoin prices to a plunge after he said the central bank is "not allowed to own Bitcoin."

12月中旬，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在表示央行“不允许拥有比特币”后，一手导致比特币价格暴跌。

His comments were technically correct, since Trump hasn't necessarily said the Federal Reserve will be in charge should the country hold BTC in reserve.

从技术上讲，他的言论是正确的，因为特朗普不一定表示，如果该国持有比特币储备，美联储将负责。

Some industry experts and enthusiasts have also pushed back against a U.S. Bitcoin reserve, arguing that the government should not get involved with BTC and it should retain its status as "the people's money."

一些行业专家和爱好者也反对美国比特币储备，认为政府不应该介入比特币，它应该保留其“人民货币”的地位。

Trump and some of his allies, including GOP Sen. Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming, have indicated that they are pushing to deliver on the promise of making the U.S. a global leader in Bitcoin and crypto.

特朗普和他的一些盟友，包括怀俄明州共和党参议员辛西娅·卢米斯(Cynthia Lummis)，表示他们正在努力兑现让美国成为比特币和加密货币领域全球领导者的承诺。