Polymarket 投注者正在放棄美國比特幣儲備的夢想

加密貨幣領域關於唐納德·川普就任新總統後美國可能建立國家比特幣戰略儲備的討論很多，但在市場預測平台 Polymarket 上，這種可能性已大幅下降。

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There has been much talk in the cryptocurrency space regarding the potential creation of a national Bitcoin strategic reserve in the United States with Donald Trump as the new president, but on market prediction platform Polymarket, the odds have dipped significantly.

加密貨幣領域關於唐納德·川普就任新總統後美國可能建立國家比特幣戰略儲備的討論很多，但在市場預測平台 Polymarket 上，這種可能性已大幅下降。

Crypto users on Polymarket have been very busy since before the U.S. elections as hopes soared for a pro-crypto government to be elected, but it turns out there's not much confidence in a BTC strategic reserve to be established within Trump's first 100 days in office.

自美國大選前以來，Polymarket 上的加密貨幣用戶一直非常忙碌，因為人們對支持加密貨幣的政府當選的希望高漲，但事實證明，人們對川普上任100 天內建立BTC 戰略儲備並沒有太多信心。

From 60% to Below 30%

從 60% 到 30% 以下

As of late Sunday, odds the incoming president will create a Bitcoin reserve have dropped to 28%, marking a massive drop from Nov. 7, when chances for such a reserve were at around 60%.

截至週日晚些時候，即將上任的總統建立比特幣儲備的可能性已降至 28%，與 11 月 7 日相比大幅下降，當時建立比特幣儲備的可能性約為 60%。

Since then, the numbers have been sliding, even when positive odds picked up once more on Nov. 21, hitting 45%. In the last few weeks, though, it's been more difficult to hit 40%, and by January, the chances dropped as low as 22%, indicating weaker confidence among crypto bettors.

從那時起，這一數字一直在下滑，儘管正賠率在 11 月 21 日再次回升，達到 45%。不過，在過去幾週，達到 40% 的機率變得更加困難，而到 1 月份，機率已降至 22%，這表明加密貨幣投注者的信心減弱。

Why are Polymarket Bettors Not So Hopeful Anymore?

為什麼 Polymarket 投注者不再那麼有希望了？

There are mixed reactions to the significant drop in chances for a U.S. Bitcoin reserve. Some are saying it's a moonshot to get such a thing approved, while others believe Trump has other priorities.

對於美國比特幣儲備機會大幅下降，人們的反應不一。有些人說，讓這樣的事情獲得批准是一次登月計劃，而另一些人則認為川普還有其他優先事項。

For one user, it's not necessarily difficult to pull it off, but if crypto users were honest, it may require up to "a year of diligence" to determine a BTC reserve's effects on the broader U.S. economy.

對於一個用戶來說，實現這一目標並不一定困難，但如果加密貨幣用戶是誠實的，可能需要長達「一年的努力」才能確定 BTC 儲備對更廣泛的美國經濟的影響。

Another user pointed out that it's just not possible for a Bitcoin reserve to be established within the first 100 days of a sitting president, given how the government works.

另一位用戶指出，考慮到政府的運作方式，在任總統的頭 100 天內不可能建立比特幣儲備。

The said user argued that even if Trump makes use of an executive order, it will take the U.S. Treasury, or whichever agency is delegated to oversee the reserve, to implement the steps to establishing the reserve. "100 days is far too fast," he reiterated.

該用戶辯稱，即使川普使用行政命令，也需要美國財政部或任何被授權監督儲備的機構來實施建立儲備的步驟。 「100 天太快了，」他重申。

Others are just too optimistic to think of the "No" bettors concerns, with many saying Trump's "many Bitcoiners" in his cabinet know how important it is to have a BTC reserve as soon as possible with the bull run incoming.

其他人則過於樂觀，沒有想到「不」投注者的擔憂，許多人表示，川普內閣中的「許多比特幣支持者」知道，隨著牛市即將到來，盡快擁有比特幣儲備有多麼重要。

Earlier Pessimism over $BTC Reserve

早期對 BTC 儲備的悲觀情緒

This isn't the first time negativity around the possibility of a Bitcoin reserve hit the crypto community hard.

這並不是比特幣儲備可能性的負面情緒第一次對加密貨幣社群造成沉重打擊。

In mid-December, U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell single-handedly sent Bitcoin prices to a plunge after he said the central bank is "not allowed to own Bitcoin."

12月中旬，聯準會主席鮑威爾在表示央行「不允許擁有比特幣」後，一手導致比特幣價格暴跌。

His comments were technically correct, since Trump hasn't necessarily said the Federal Reserve will be in charge should the country hold BTC in reserve.

從技術上講，他的言論是正確的，因為川普不一定表示，如果該國持有比特幣儲備，聯準會將負責。

Some industry experts and enthusiasts have also pushed back against a U.S. Bitcoin reserve, arguing that the government should not get involved with BTC and it should retain its status as "the people's money."

一些行業專家和愛好者也反對美國比特幣儲備，認為政府不應該介入比特幣，它應該保留其「人民貨幣」的地位。

Trump and some of his allies, including GOP Sen. Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming, have indicated that they are pushing to deliver on the promise of making the U.S. a global leader in Bitcoin and crypto.

川普和他的一些盟友，包括懷俄明州共和黨參議員辛西婭·盧米斯(Cynthia Lummis)，表示他們正在努力兌現讓美國成為比特幣和加密貨幣領域全球領導者的承諾。